FXUS61 KRLX 101826 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 226 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler weather into the weekend. The chance for rain showers again Saturday afternoon as an upper level system crosses. Temperatures will climb to average or above starting Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 PM Friday... Drier air associated with high pressure was allowing clearing to slowly edge through the middle Ohio Valley this afternoon, while clouds and showers persisted farther east. Improvement should continue into tonight, with the showers ending as a mid-upper level short wave trough exits by sunset. Clearing and light wind tonight per high pressure ridging into the area from the southwest will allow areas of valley fog to form, but there may also be enough residual low level moisture for low clouds to form before dawn Saturday. Either or should dissipate after daybreak Saturday. Clearing tonight may allow night owls to catch some aurora activity if they head away from city lights to somewhere with a clear view of the northern sky. Head to the Space Weather Prediction Center's website for more info on the G4 Geomagnetic Storm Watch: swpc.noaa.gov. Another mid-upper level short wave trough is likely to bring a band of showers across the area from west to east on Saturday. Thunderstorms are also possible Saturday afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes per mid level cooling in concert with daytime heating. A mid level inversion should be just high enough for cells to grow tall enough for charge separation, and even small hail per dry entrainment, which will also promote gusty winds. Echo top temperatures should lower into the -20s C at least across the north. Central guidance reflects surface temperatures modestly below normal. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 PM Friday... Remaining precipitation largely exits to the east by daybreak Sunday. Ridging building into the region then yields mainly dry conditions through the day Monday amidst a warm-up. Deep southwesterly flow associated with the next southern stream system will begin to advect moisture back into the region Monday afternoon but any precipitation is expected to hold off until Monday night && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 225 PM Friday... Upper level forcing in the form of an upper low emerging from the Central Rockies arrives Monday night into early Tuesday morning yielding an uptick in precipitation coverage. The risk for severe storms through this period appears low given limited opportunity for surface heating and poor mid-level lapse rates. As flow weakens Tuesday night into Wednesday, could see some slower moving storm cores that could present a risk for some localized water issues, and WPC has painted a marginal risk for this over the region. Broader scale, but still transient ridging returns Thursday with any lingering risk for showers and storms becoming primarily diurnally driven. The next synoptically driven chance of precipitation arrives late Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 PM Friday... IFR to low MVFR conditions in the mountains and MVFR conditions at CRW and HTS will gradually improve this afternoon while CKB and PKB should remain VFR. Scattered showers east of the Ohio River may also interrupt improvement with brief MVFR conditions, before dissipating late today. Clearing edging southeastward through the middle Ohio Valley this afternoon will continue across the remainder of the area tonight. This will allow valley fog to form east of the Ohio River, which could lower to IFR. However, low clouds could form with IFR to MVFR ceilings, interrupting the fog. Either or should dissipate after daybreak Saturday, allowing VFR conditions. However, an upper level system is likely to bring showers into the area later Saturday morning, with thunder also possible near or just beyond the end of the TAF period Saturday afternoon. Northwest surface flow, gusty here and there this afternoon, will become calm to light and variable tonight, and then west southwest on Saturday, becoming gusty late Saturday morning. Light north to northwest flow aloft through tonight will become light to moderate southwest on Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceiling and visibility restrictions may vary from forecast. Timing and extent of fog or low stratus tonight may vary from forecast. Winds will fluctuate this afternoon and Saturday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected currently. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...TRM