FXUS62 KCAE 101040 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 640 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible again today as a cold front approaches and moves through the area today. High pressure then moves in for the weekend, bringing dry weather. The high moves offshore Monday and increasing moisture supports showers and thunderstorms returning for next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Currently, a shortwave trough is moving into the Southeast, bringing a cluster of showers and embedded thunderstorms along with it. This showers activity is slowly approaching the CSRA. The strongest thunderstorms in this complex are expected to remain well south of the region. Today...The shortwave crossing into the Southeast this morning is expected to continue quickly moving eastward, bringing the chance for showers and embedded thunderstorms along with it. The best chance for precipitation from this wave is across the southern portions of the forecast area, but some shower activity could work its way into the upper CSRA and western Midlands. By the time it arrives to our neck of the woods, instability should be lacking somewhat so the severe weather threat with this round of activity is low. Latest guidance has this cluster moving through the region rather quickly, allowing for some clearing behind it. The clearing is will likely lead to some destabilization in the atmosphere as temperatures are forecast to rise into the 80s. The larger scale trough over the Upper Midwest is expected to translate toward the Southeast. An associated surface cold front is also anticipated to move through the area this afternoon. Latest hi- res guidance indicates some scattered convection initiation occurring this afternoon as the front moves through the area. Ahead of the front, a ribbon of instability is anticipated to develop. The HREF mean surface based CAPE is showing a mean of 1000-1500 J/kg moving with 0-6 km mean bulk shear values of 40+ knots, which should be sufficient enough to produce strong to potentially severe storms. The strongest energy from the crossing trough is forecast to be along and north of the Northern Midlands into the PeeDee. This is where the highest risk of severe weather exists this afternoon. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any storms that do form, with hail and tornadoes being secondary threats. As such, SPC has a slight risk (2/5) of severe weather for the far eastern portions of Chesterfield County and a marginal risk (1/5) everywhere else in the forecast area. The overall severe threat today is dependent on how quickly the morning activity moves out of the region. Tonight: After the cold front and associated convection exits the region this evening, clearing skies are expected to be ushered in tonight. North to northwest winds are also expected to bring some cooler temperatures tonight compared to the past several nights with lows dropping into the 50s for most locations. A few upper 40s aren't out of the question in the northern and western portions of the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Saturday and Saturday night: Upper trough axis will be shifting east of the forecast area with a drier air mass building over the region as PWATs are around a half inch. A secondary shortwave trough is forecast to dive into the Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon which will push a weak frontal boundary through the forecast area Saturday night. PWATs rise to just under and inch with the boundary but moisture remains limited and low/mid level flow is from the northwest with a downslope component so do not expect any rain. Temperatures on Saturday are expected to be slightly below normal with highs in the 70s and lows Saturday night in the low to mid 50s Sunday and Sunday night: Shortwave ridging will move over the forecast area on Sunday as the shortwave trough to the north moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This should provide another nice day across the region with plenty of sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures with rising heights. PWATs remain low around 0.6-0.8 inches with northwesterly flow throughout the atmospheric column. Temperatures should warm about a category with highs on Sunday expected back in the lower 80s with lows Sunday night again in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A return to an active weather pattern returns by Tuesday with ensembles suggesting a few shortwaves moving through the 500mb flow next week. Dry weather is expected early Monday with some weak shortwave ridging crossing the area but moisture increases Monday afternoon with south to southwesterly flow developing and PWATs rise above normal by 00z. Some isolated showers possible with daytime heating and then increasing showers Monday night as shortwave energy moves into the region with continued moisture advection. PWATs rise to 150-170% of normal by Tuesday afternoon with increasing southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching upper trough and frontal boundary. The combination of moisture and instability should support chances of thunderstorms and cannot rule out isolated strong to severe thunderstorms although confidence this far out remains limited in any severe threat. Expect a bit of a break on Wednesday as the first shortwave passes to the east but ensemble means show another shortwave moving into the region on Thursday with varying differences in timing and amplitude but it should result in additional rain chances across the forecast area. Temperatures during this period are expected to be near normal early in the week to above normal by mid week with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Any restrictions this morning should improve by mid morning followed by generally VFR conditions. Restrictions are possible again this afternoon. IFR ceilings are being noted at CAE and CUB this morning, while high clouds have hindered stratus development at AGS, DNL, and OGB. These ceilings are anticipated to improve to VFR around 14z. Showers moving into the area should bring some light rain to AGS and DNL, and potentially OGB, so have introduce -SHRA to AGS and DNL and VCSH to OGB. Left mention of showers out of CAE and CUB for the time being as showers are expected to stay south. Another round of scattered showers and storms are forecast to move through the region during the 18z-00z timeframe. Most of this activity looks to remain north of AGS and DNL, so have left mention of VCSH there for now. After the afternoon activity moves out, drier air and clear skies filter in behind it. Breezy west to southwest winds expected through about 00z before shifting to northwest behind a frontal passage. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday along with associated restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...