FXUS62 KEYW 090712
AFDEYW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
310 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2008
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX RADAR SHOWS ONLY A FEW SHALLOW AND BRIEF SHOWERS SPROUTING ON 
THE FRINGES OF OUR GULF WATERS AND EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. 
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OTHERWISE...AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE 
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH HAVE KEPT THE SURFACE WINDS OUT 
OF THE WEST. SPEEDS ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS AT ALL CMAN REPORTING 
STATIONS...AND THE ISLAND SENSORS ARE REGISTERING 5 MPH ON AVERAGE. 
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NATION HAS ALLOWED 
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS TO SETTLE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE LATEST 
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS ALIGNMENT WILL LAST LONGER THAN 
PREVIOUS RUNS...KEEPING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW IN PLACE 
PROBABLY UNTIL AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST MID LEVEL VORT 
MAX MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING...WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE 
PENINSULA. THE STEERING ORIENTATION WILL ALLOW PERIODIC CLOUD LINES 
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE KEPT THE 
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCE OVER THE LARGER ISLANDS OF THE LOWER 
KEYS GOING FOR BOTH THOSE PERIODS. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO THE GRIDS 
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES UNTIL LATE 
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH SCATTERED/LOW CHANCE POPS 
FOR A WIDER EXTENT OF THE SERVICE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
MOSTLY GENTLE BREEZES OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL PERSIST 
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. MORE VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE 
AXIS NUDGES NORTHWARD. NO CAUTIONARY HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 
THE ENTIRE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY.  
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING MORE 
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH 
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT 
ISLAND TERMINALS WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATE 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  90 79 90 79 / 30 20 30 20
MARATHON  92 79 92 79 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
04/11
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