FXUS62 KILM 310026 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 726 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 .SYNOPSIS... An extended period of cloudy conditions is in store for this week with spotty light rain possible Tuesday through Wednesday. A more potent system will affect the area Thursday into early Friday before cool, dry high pressure moves in for next weekend. && .UPDATE... Earlier fog visible on the Kure Beach and Carolina Beach surfcams has dissipated with light north-northwesterly surface winds. Thicker high clouds arriving have obscured the satellite view of the fog offshore, but as synoptic winds veer southerly over the next 3-6 hours we'll watch for the redevelopment of sea fog across the nearshore waters. For inland areas, low clouds are expected to build down toward the surface overnight with areas of fog developing, possibly dense. After collaboration with WFO Morehead City we'll hold off on the issuance of any Dense Fog Advisory for now, but will reconsider this potential with the next scheduled update late this evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mid-level flow remains zonal with the Carolinas sitting at the top of a weak, flat ridge. Deep westerly flow continues tonight and Tue. While this would typically be a dry flow, the orientation of the flat 5h ridge to the south creates a Pacific moisture tap, which will ensure an abundance of deep moisture and a healthy amount of cloud cover through Tue. Surface boundary will linger south of the area tonight into Tue with another weak wave along the Gulf Coast traveling along the boundary. This wave heads northeast, passing just east of the area on Tue. The lack of isentropic lift ahead of the wave and the weak nature of the feature really limits rainfall potential for the area. Cannot rule out some light rain at times, especially closer to the coast, but not sold on any QPF being more than a couple hundredths. In fact several solutions keep most of the region completely dry tomorrow. Cloud cover and moisture will help keep lows well above climo tonight. Lows will range from near 50 inland to potentially mid 50s along the coast. Light to calm winds and an abundance of moisture will lead to fog development tonight, with some areas possibly seeing dense fog. Dense fog advisory may be needed for the overnight, but hard to pinpoint locations at this time. Clouds hang around Tue, but southerly flow in the afternoon will lead to highs several degrees above climo. Diurnal ranges are expected to be about 10 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Cloudy skies continue for the short term period with plenty of low level moisture and decent high cloud coverage, not that those will be visible. A flat stacked ridge persists over the Caribbean, with a series of weak impulses riding the top of the ridge Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Bulk of the PVA will be across NC, and therefore have slightly higher pops across northern zones. Stalled front across the area Tuesday night will have a weak wave move along it before the front is pushed south on Wednesday as a surface wedge develops due to high pressure passing well to the north. Overall pops are in the chance rain and spotty light rain is expected versus any meaningful accumulations Tuesday night through late Wednesday. Low temps Tuesday night upper 40s to the north and low 50s with front across area. Depending on wedge strength and position, expect a decent gradient in high temps Wednesday with mid 50s near northern border and low to mid 60s to the south. Lows Wednesday night in the low 40s, with possibly warmer lows for most southern counties. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Wedge and cloudy skies continue early Thursday, with high temps around 50F near northern CWA border and potential low 60s at southern border as boundary at edge of wedge lingers nearby. A potent upper shortwave will be moving across TX on Thursday, Ahead of the shortwave, surface lows develop along the front to the south Thursday afternoon before moving across the Southeast late Thursday. This will bring our next chance of meaningful rainfall with categorical pops Thursday afternoon into overnight hours. The front will finally move offshore early Friday as breezy northerly flow dominates with strong high pressure moving across the upper midwest. Atmosphere dries pretty quickly on Friday with PWATs dropping from above an inch to 0.25" and will finally see clearing skies during the day Friday for the first time all week. As the surface high moves across to the north Saturday, will a return of the surface wedge although without the moisture. Below normal temps prevail Friday through Saturday night. A weak coastal low may develop Sunday into Monday ahead of the next upper trough, but still uncertainty in location and rainfall potential and therefore maintained low pops for now. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weather will have large negative impacts on aviation operations overnight and into Tuesday morning. MVFR to locally IFR stratus ongoing now should build down toward the ground overnight with all airports likely to experience IFR to VLIFR conditions before daybreak. The onset time of these adverse conditions is tough to pin down, but it appears prevailing visibility should settle below 3 miles between 04-07 UTC for most airports with cloud ceilings collapsing to 200-600 feet AGL before daybreak. Conditions will only slowly improve Tuesday morning with IFR conditions potentially persisting through 16 UTC before low clouds break. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions in cloud ceilings and rain may develop Wednesday and Thursday as a front meanders across the Carolinas. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday...Ill-defined gradient and weak surface features will keep winds under 10 kt through Tue. Light northerly flow tonight will gradually become southerly during the day Tue. Light winds will keep seas on the lower end of the 2 to 3 ft range with seas being a mix of a southerly wind wave and an easterly swell. Tuesday Night through Saturday...Weak surface low moves along stalled front Tuesday night before a surface wedge develops inland and the front gets pushed to the south. Winds generally out of the north-northeast at 10-15 kts Wednesday through Thursday evening, with gusts to 20 kts Wednesday afternoon. Seas 2 ft early Wednesday build to 2-4 ft by evening hours as NE wind wave develops. A stronger low moves along the stalled front across the Southeast late Thursday, bringing higher rain chances. Front gets pushed offshore by Friday morning, with breezy north-northeast winds developing behind it for Friday through Saturday. Gusts 25-30 kts possible Friday night into Saturday. Seas respond in turn, increasing to 3-5 ft Thursday night and Friday and 4-6 ft Saturday. Seas Thursday night through Friday will also be influenced by a brief 3-4 ft 8 sec S swell component, joining persisting long period E swell and northerly wind wave. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...TRA NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...TRA MARINE...III/VAO