FXUS62 KILM 302011 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 411 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures with an upper ridge over the area, and a Heat Advisory is in effect today for the area. A front will drop into the region late today and tonight, then stall along the coast through next week. Unsettled weather is expected for the weekend, and a wet weather pattern early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A cold front continues to reside to the northwest while convective debris clouds move across our area from last night's activity to the west. As for convection this evening, near term/high resolution guidance has backed off considerably for late this afternoon and evening although the seemingly rogue convection near Wilson gives me pause since the guidance hasn't recognized this as of yet. Long story short...will maintain the slight chance pops into the evening hours then quiet overnight. The aforementioned front makes a slow jog to the coast Saturday and the best chances of convection (not necessarily high) are along and east near the coast. As for temperatures, heat advisory remains in effect until 7 PM. The need for another one Saturday seems more marginal but later shifts will decide after the current bulletin has run its course. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Sunday starts out with a frontal boundary stalled in the region and westerly flow aloft. The precipitable moisture will be very high, but the only forcing on Sunday will be along the frontal boundary with mesoscale processes. These ingredients will bring a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm that would be welcomed by afternoon. High temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 90s inland and lower 90s at the beaches with the westerly flow. Combined with the humidity, the heat indices are expected to reach between 105 and 109F. Thus a heat advisory likely will be needed. A front from the Great Lakes will move toward the area and will be just to the northwest of the area before sunrise Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As mentioned in the previous discussion, a mid to upper-level through axis will run from east of Hudson Bay south- southwestward to the Alabama-Mississippi border. This trough axis will remain to the west through the period before lifting out on Friday. At the the surface a frontal boundary will become stationary from the west to east before becoming parallel to the coast by Friday. Deep tropical moisture plume will be on the southern side of this boundary and the chance for convection will be above normal for this time of year and temperatures will start in the upper 80s on Monday and the rest of the week the temperatures only reach into the middle 80s. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR through the 18Z TAF period, increasingly breezy as a front to the north drops south in vicinity of SE NC by 20Z, with SW gusts up to 22kts. Cumulus at 3000-4000ft are slowly starting to build, and some will continue to tower upward. However, confidence on storms has decreased since this morning, but left VCTS in the TAFs for good measure. If storms do occur, brief MVFR to IFR conditions are possible in addition to erratic gusty wind. KFLO and KLBT have the best chance for more active weather generally late this afternoon, becoming a problem for KILM this evening. Winds become more variable late tonight, before a NNW breeze sets up for the more inland terminals, while the seabreeze brings the southerly trend back to the coastal terminals by Saturday afternoon. Extended Outlook...Stalled front in the vicinity of the Eastern Carolinas will result in periodic MVFR/IFR from tstorms especially early next week, remaining unsettled. Outside of TSTMs winds will be light to moderate. && .MARINE... Through Saturday Night: Southwest winds increasing across the waters this afternoon as expected with 15-20 knots sustained. The gusts are a little lacing so far for the small craft advisory but should probably get there in time and will maintain headline. Much weaker wind fields Saturday and a bit erratic with a front near the area but kinda come back into form into Sunday morning. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet. Monday through Wednesday: The dominate flow over the waters will be from the southwest through Wednesday. As a second front stalls just inland during this period. As the front approaches the pressure gradient tightens but weakens on Monday and seas will range anywhere between 2 and 4 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-054>056-058-059. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...RH LONG TERM...RH AVIATION...IGB MARINE...