FXUS62 KILM 260721 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 321 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Heat will return once again, as an upper ridge amplifies from the south. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible from time to time, but overall, expect hot and dry weather through at least mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 AM Sunday...The heat switch getting flicked to the 'ON' position today, in wake of perturbations marching seaward off NC early this morning. A 'snap-back' upper ridge, coupled with compressed air parcels in trajectories off the mountains, and near full sun wattage, all leads to a broiling afternoon with near, to record heat. A few current standings for the date: ILM 98 in 1953, FLO 102 in 1953, and LBT 101 in 1926. ILM most at risk of being replaced. Although subsidence aloft and drying should suppress convection, the intense heat and associated convergence of a confined sea breeze front, could lead to a brief pop up SHRA/TSTM (low-topped) into the afternoon heating, favored just inland of the coast. Monday, Memorial Day, very hot again. Short-wave energy could bring an isolated TSTM over SE NC Monday night from WNW to ESE late. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Sunday...The short term as well as the long term sounds like a broken record literally and figuratively as the pattern is changing little. Massive high pressure still dominated the weather and record highs will most likely continue to be broken. All but zero pops in the forecast with highs well into the 90s and uncomfortable lows although the oppressive dewpoints have yet to arrive so the overnight periods will be more tolerable. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 AM Sunday...Some hope for a methodical breakdown of the massive ridge through the period as Western Conus Energy begins to make its move albeit in a piecework fashion. The latest official forecast reflates this with a gradual increase in pops although trending slowly up. Temperatures remain oppressive but may step back later n the week per the increase cloud cover and moisture. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 5Z...GOES 'nighttime microphysics' channel depicting clearly the onshore impingement of tropically derived moisture, which was resulting in smatterings of MVFR/IFR ceilings this morning. 20-25 kt wind above the boundary layer was keeping fog at bay this morning, but 9-12z may see patches inland as wind- speeds lessen. Convection over central NC to be watched for possible VCTS or VCSH amendment/inclusion from KLBT to KEYF to KILM 8-10z. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR into next week. Slight chance MVFR each morning in low stratus/fog, or isolated TSTMs. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM Sunday...SE waves of 2-3 feet every 5-6 seconds will be gradually replaced by SSW-SW waves 2 feet every 4-5 seconds, in response to the veering surface wind field today. Weak ENE swell every 11-12 seconds from a departing and distant ocean low will hardy be noticeable beneath the chopped wind- seas. No advisories, an isolated TSTM possible late Monday night NC waters. SW winds the rule this period, backing slightly in the afternoon inshore, and gustier. Although there are subtle changes on the overall pattern mainly as the ridge breaks down and more of a westerly flow develops, winds and seas will remain very stable across the coastal waters. Expect mostly south to southwest of 10-15 knots and significant seas of 2-4 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...Colby SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MJC