FXUS62 KJAX 250740 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 340 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... GOES-16 Total Precipitable Water imagery early this morning showed PWATs ranging from 1-1.25 inches across most of the area, with slightly higher values across Flagler and southeastern Marion County. This has led to temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the interior, and some patchy fog was also observed. The drier air will push slowly westward as the weak area of low pressure east of north central Florida drifts towards the coast today. Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible south of a line from Jacksonville to Gainesville. The area of low pressure will move towards the coast of northeast Florida tonight, and move inland around or just after daybreak on Monday. Moisture is forecast to surge back into the area overnight, with PWATs increasing back to 1.8-2.2 inches along the coastal areas by daybreak on Monday. Rain chances will increase after midnight, with widely scattered showers possible along the coastal areas before daybreak on Monday. Highs today will be in the lower 90s across the interior and mid to upper 80s for the coastal counties. Overnight lows tonight will be in the 70s. .SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]... Upper ridge will remain oriented WNW-ESE across AL/GA during this period. At the surface, weak low pressure will gradually move westward across northern FL peninsula. Latest guidance shows increasing coverage of showers/t-storms expected during this period. Forecast area will be in a warm, humid environment with afternoon temperatures into the 90s and dew points into the mid 70s supporting heat index values of 100-105. .LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]... Weak upper-level shortwave expected to move across the Southeast late Tuesday night and Wednesday...then upper ridge becomes re- established NW-SE over forecast area during the remainder of the period. Models suggest greater precipitation coverage will be Wed- Thu...with lesser coverage Fri-Sat. Expect to see a bit of a warming trend as 1000-850mb thickness values rise from the 1430s early in the week to the 1440s by the end of the week...supporting mid 90s temperatures especially I-10 northward by the end of the work week. In addition, mid 70s dew points will support 104-108 heat index values, which will likely be the main story for next Weekend's weather. && .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Monday] MVFR stratus is possible at the coastal TAF sites overnight, and fog is possible at the interior TAF sites towards daybreak. Mostly dry conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the period. A few light showers are possible towards KSGJ and KCRG. Light winds will become northeast to east northeast at 10-15 knots. Winds will diminish to 5-10 knots in the evening. && .MARINE... Northeast winds and building seas have developed over the waters due to low pressure off the east central Florida coast. The area of low pressure will drift into the coastal waters this afternoon and tonight, and then move inland across northeast Florida Monday morning. High pressure to the north will then move southeast which will veer the winds from northeast this weekend to the southeast and south early this week. Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents for northeast Florida beaches today and moderate risk of rip currents on Monday. Moderate risk of rip currents for southeast Georgia beaches through Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Elevated tidal levels are possible at high tide today due to the full moon and onshore flow. Rivers levels continue to fall with minor flooding along the lower portions of the Santa Fe River. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 71 92 73 92 / 0 10 50 10 70 SSI 89 78 89 78 91 / 10 30 30 10 50 JAX 89 75 91 75 92 / 10 20 50 20 60 SGJ 88 75 89 75 91 / 20 40 50 20 50 GNV 91 73 90 74 91 / 10 20 70 20 70 OCF 92 75 91 74 92 / 20 20 70 30 70 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau- Coastal St. Johns. GA...None. AM...None. &&