FXUS62 KJAX 310200 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 900 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 824 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 High pressure will reside northeast of the Bahamas which will bring a moist southwest flow in the 1000-850 mb layer from the southern Big Bend region into the CWA. In concert a stalled front will remain draped across southeast Georgia keeping a warm and humid airmass in place. This will allow some areas of southeast Georgia and northeast Florida to have dense fog. Dense fog advisory has been issued for portions of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia mainly along and west of highway 301. Will watch trends for expansion of the fog advisory north and east later night. The nearshore waters of southeast Georgia may also have dense fog with dewpoints in the lower 60s moving over cool shelf waters. && .NEAR TERM...(through Tonight) Warm, moist and unstable airmass is established south of stalled frontal zone, which is currently stretched across the Altamaha River basin, with a cooler more stable airmass north of it. Temperatures south of the front have soared this afternoon in the low/mid 80s, setting new daily high temp records at JIA, St Simons Island, and Craig Airfield. North of the boundary lingering stratus has lead to a more seasonal afternoon in the low 70s. The stalled boundary will creep southward across southeast GA this afternoon and evening. As it does so, there should be enough convergence along it to support widely scattered showers and perhaps an couple of storms amid sufficient instability. Despite broad subsidence associated with a building upper ridge to the south, steeper lapse rates aloft may be sufficient and allow an isolated strong storm to develop early this evening. Any convective activity along the boundary will diminish quickly with loss of heating. The focus tonight will turn to dense fog. The boundary will begin to dissipate as it approaches the FL/GA state line and winds will are expected to become calm. Anticipate fog to advect from inland areas toward the Atlantic becoming dense after midnight. A Dense Fog Advisory will likely be needed. In addition to fog over land areas, dense marine fog is also expected across the southeast GA coastal waters and may extend as far south as Mayport. Warm, moist airmass will keep lows in the low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Aforementioned frontal zone will continue to dissipate Tuesday with a warm and unstable airmass remaining entrenched through Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday with a slight chance of showers possible Tuesday night along weak cool front that will gradually push into NE FL before it stalls south of I-10 through Wednesday. Kept the forecast dry Wednesday, but PoPs may trend upward through the next few forecast cycles with the possibility of isolated showers along the stalled boundary. Dense fog potential will continue each night amid the moist airmass but chances may be a little less Wednesday night due to an increase in high clouds. Temperatures will be well above normal and may challenge daily high temp records. Highs will be in the low 80s in NE FL and in the mid/upper 70s in SE GA whereas the lows will be in the upper 50s and low 60s. && .LONG TERM...(Thursday through next Monday) A stalled boundary will lift northward ahead of an organizing low pressure crossing the GOMEX on Thursday. Another potential day of record warmth is expected Thursday ahead of the low, which models have consistently indicated will cross over or just north of the area Thursday afternoon and evening. A line of storms is expected along the cold front trailing the low and will press through the area Thursday night into Friday morning. Due to a nocturnal passage surface instability will be minimal. However, given the supporting upper trough, strong bulk shear, and elevated instability, strong and possibly marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible with the frontal passage. A robust surface high pressure will build from the northwest behind the front through Friday resulting in an enhanced pressure gradient and set up a local Nor'easter event through the weekend. A coastal trough will develop within the strong onshore flow Saturday and may push showers into the coast through Sunday. This coastal trough will strengthen into a low and lift northeastward Sunday night and send a strong, mostly dry, trailing cold front through the area. Another strong area of high pressure will bring another surge of northeast winds into early next week. Anticipate prolonged period of windy conditions at the coast and hazardous surf at local beaches which may result in minor beach erosion. Temperatures will cool back into the normal range, perhaps a few degrees below, behind the Thursday night frontal passage and continue through into next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 Waffling between MVFR and VFR over portions of interior southeast GA closer to a stationary front near more widespread cloud cover and isolated shower activity. Otherwise, VFR conditions are likely to prevail at TAFs into the late evening hours, but isolated shower activity and brief shower may develop near SSI between 00z-03z. An outside chance of a brief tstorm SSI in this time frame but confidence too low to include in TAF at this time. After any convection moves offshore by mid to late evening. Good chance for stratus and fog to develop, with GNV and VQQ seeing conditions deteriorating to IFR and LIFR by 08z-09z and then rest of the TAFs dropping to IFR or less by 10z-11z. There will a slow dissipation of fog and stratus Tuesday morning with the light low level flow. For now, we have conditions improving to MVFR or VFR cigs by 15z, but left SSI in IFR thru 18z. Winds will go light and variable tonight. Seabreeze may develop for coastal TAFS after 20z Tuesday. && .MARINE... A weak front will move south into the waters tonight and dissipate Tuesday before another cool front arrives Tuesday night. Insignificant winds are expected with the fronts and seas will remain low through Wednesday. Dense marine fog will develop across the Georgia coastal waters tonight and again Tuesday evening. Fog may linger into the early afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday. Offshore winds increase Thursday ahead of an approaching low pressure system moving northeastward through the Gulf of Mexico. This low will exit the Gulf and emerge into the Atlantic north of the Georgia coastal waters Thursday evening. A trailing cold front will move across the waters by Friday morning with a substantial high pressure system building from the northeast. Unsettled weather, strong onshore winds with gale gusts, and high seas are likely through the weekend. Rip Current Risk: Low-end moderate risk at local beaches through Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... A weak front will shift south across southeast GA and stall near the FL/GA stateline tonight. Warm, moist summer-like airmass will established through Thursday before a strong low pressure system cross Thursday night bring cooler conditions and strengthening winds Friday and into the weekend. The moist airmass will bring the potential for fog each morning through Thursday. Humidity will stay well above critical this week with winds generally light (5-10 mph). Low smoke dispersions are expected across southeast GA through Wednesday due to light winds and stable conditions are expected. Better mixing amid a more unstable airmass will favor fair smoke dispersion over the next couple of days.&& .HYDROLOGY... Minor flooding is anticipated at Baxley and Charlotteville along the Altamaha Tonight and will likely continue into the weekend. Prolonged onshore flow is expected this weekend and into next week and may result in elevated tides. Impactful tidal flooding is not expected at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Minor flooding is anticipated at Baxley and Charlotteville along the Altamaha Tonight and will likely continue into the weekend. Prolonged onshore flow is expected this weekend and into next week and may result in elevated tides. Impactful tidal flooding is not expected at this time. && .CLIMATE... A stretch of unseasonable warm weather is expected through Thursday. Belows are the daily high temperature records and the years they were observed: 01/30 01/31 02/01 02/02 Jacksonville, FL 85(2013) 84(1982) 83(2002) 84(1990) Craig Airfield, FL 85(2013) 81(2002) 84(2002) 80(2016) Gainesville, FL 89(1902) 85(1975) 87(1903) 85(1950) St Simons Island, GA 82(1975) 80(1974) 79(1957) 80(1950) Alma, GA 83(1975) 82(2002) 84(2002) 83(1990) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 60 75 60 75 / 30 20 20 20 SSI 60 72 58 74 / 30 10 20 10 JAX 63 81 59 82 / 20 10 10 10 SGJ 63 79 61 79 / 0 10 10 0 GNV 61 82 59 82 / 0 10 10 0 OCF 61 82 60 82 / 0 10 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ020-021-023-030-031-035-122-136-222-236-340. GA...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ149-162-163-250-264-350-364. AM...None. && $$