FXUS62 KMHX 130530 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 130 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weak backdoor cold front quickly tracks across the region this evening while high pressure builds overhead tonight and remains in control thru Monday. Then, a low pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds in on Thursday before another low pressure system impacts us late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1000 pm Sunday...High pressure has started building in behind the back door cold front which is now to our south. we have decoupled quite nicely to start the night, and temps are dropping as a result. Still expecting upper 40s inland, low to mid 50s for beaches tonight. Dewpoints are much higher than what models have been suggesting this evening, and tried to account for that by increasing dewpoints through the night. Patchy fog is still possible tonight west of hwy 17 early Monday morning, but should not be too impactful with limited low level moisture. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Previous Discussion...As of 305 PM Sun...Not much change in the forecast as upper level trough remains over the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon with ridging beginning to push in from the west out ahead of yet another trough in the Plains. Widespread temps in the 70s inland and upper 60s to mid 70s across the OBX are currently noted. Highs for today will likely be reached in the next hour or so while blustery west to northwesterly winds continue across ENC. A few wind gusts up around 20-25 mph remain possible this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows fairly widespread diurnal cumulus which should quickly dissipate around sunset allowing for clear skies tonight. Backdoor cold front noted by a wind shift to the north-northeast as well as on satellite is currently making its way south across the NOBX this afternoon as well. This backdoor cold front should eventually stall and dissipate as it makes its way across the area this evening resulting in winds becoming light an variable after sunset. Tonight, deep upper ridging will expand over much of the southeastern CONUS eventually becoming centered over the Southeast by Monday morning as Mid-Atlantic trough pushes further offshore and troughing in the Southern Plains slowly pushes E'wards. High pressure then settles overhead. With light and variable winds and mo clear skies forecast the table is set for a great radiational cooling night tonight with the latest forecasted low temps nudged down another degree or two below the lowest guidance. As such have widespread lows in the upper 40s to low 50s inland with low to mid 50s found along the coast and OBX. Patchy radiation fog is possible to start the morning work commute, but widespread visibility issues are not anticipated. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 700 pm Sunday...No major changes with this update. Previous Discussion...As of 305 PM Sun... High pressure over the Mid- Atlantic becomes centered off the coast by Mon afternoon keeping things dry across ENC through the day. However, upper level trough and associated surface low in the Plains will continue to slide E'wards as well approaching the Carolinas from the west. While we don't expect any precip, increasing high clouds especially Mon afternoon will be noted as moisture gradually begins to stream into the region out ahead of the approaching low. Temps will be seasonable with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s. Dew points will be much below normal however in the low to mid 50s making for very comfortable conditions. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sunday...Unsettled weather will impact ENC on Tue/Wed as a deepening low pressure tracks across the Southeast and Mid- Atlantic. High pressure builds in Thursday night into Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area late in the week. Monday night...Mostly cloudy skies and increasing precip chances are forecast late Mon night out ahead of an approaching low pressure system that will be tracking across the Southeast. Temps get down into the 60s across the area Mon night given the widespread cloudcover and weak southerly flow. Tuesday through Wednesday night...Vertically stacked low pressure will track across the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday and then push across the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before pushing off the coast Wednesday night. Precip chances increase through the day Tuesday and peak Tuesday night as upper level diffluence and southern stream moisture increases across the area with PWATs peaking around 1.75". Additional showers will push across the area Wednesday as the upper level trough and attendant sfc cold front pushes across the area. Could see a few elevated thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night but clouds and precip will limit instability and any severe potential appears minimal. However, Wednesday will have a better chance for stronger storms with better upper level support, colder temps aloft, and greater instability coupled with around 30-40 kt of bulk shear. Most of the area will likely see a soaking rain with precip amounts around 1-1.5" through the period with coastal sections potentially approaching 2". Temps will continue to be seasonable with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 Tuesday and low to mid 80s on Wednesday. Thursday through Sunday...Disparity continues among the models with how the mid week system transitions as it moves offshore late Wednesday with some solutions opening the upper low into a wave with the system progressively moving east into the western Atlantic allowing for upper ridging to build aloft bringing a dry forecast. However, the 00z operational ECMWF and to some extent the CMC now maintain a closed low with a slower track across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday keeping cyclonic flow over the area which will bring greater cloud cover with a few showers persisting across the area. Have now introduced slight chance PoPs and the CMC is trending toward the ECMWF. Models are in better agreement with another southern stream system quickly moving into the area late in the week but once again guidance differs with how the system evolves as it pushes across the Southeast and off the coast. But despite the differences, most guidance brings another round of descent rainfall amounts across much of the area. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Tuesday/... As of 130 AM Mon...VFR conditions prevail across ENC early this morning as high pressure builds in from the north behind a backdoor cold front now stalled offshore. Main concern will be MIFG formation early this morning. Clear skies prevail across the region but not all areas have decoupled (EWN in particular, which has remained at a steady 5 kt most of the night). Areas have that decoupled are seeing dew point depressions rapidly approach zero, and some brief ground fog formation is possible (10-20% chance) around dawn. VFR conditions return in the morning with increasing cirri through the day as low pressure migrates along a stalled frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast. Light winds this morning gradually veer southerly as the surface high migrates offshore but remaining under 10 kt through the day. Cigs will gradually lower through 06z but should remain at VFR. LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Friday/... As of 4 AM Sunday...Pred VFR conditions expected through Monday as high pressure builds across the region. A low pressure system will impact the area Tuesday through Wednesday with deteriorating conditions expected Tuesday with periods of sub- VFR continuing into Wednesday. Sub-VFR conditions possible Wednesday night with plenty of low level moisture in place. Pred VFR returns Thursday but could see isolated showers bringing brief sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Monday/... As of 700 pm Sunday...No major changes with this update. Back door cold front has passed Ocracoke, spanning NE to Tyrrell County. As of 305 PM Sun...Rather benign boating conditions will persist through the period as weak low pressure to the north quickly exits the region while its associated cold front continues to dive south and eventually dissipate over the area. High pressure ridging quickly builds over the region tonight before ridging pushes offshore on Monday. Latest observations show frontal boundary finally pushing through our northern waters this afternoon with widespread 10-15 kt N-NE'rly winds with gusts up to 20-25 kts behind this frontal passage while south of the front, winds remain SW'rly at 5-10 kts. This front will continue S'wards shifting winds to a NE to E direction and while winds will briefly gust behind the front, they will quickly ease this evening down to 5-10 kts and remain light into Mon morning. Light winds gradually veer through the day on Mon to an E-SE direction and increase slightly to 5-15 kts as high pressure ridging pushes offshore and another low pressure system begins to approach from the west. Seas generally remain around 2-4 ft across our coastal waters with a few 5 footers found along the Gulf Stream waters. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 415 AM Sunday...A low pressure system will impact the waters Tuesday into Wednesday. Low pressure may linger near the coast into Thursday. Winds veer to southerly Monday night and increase Tuesday ahead of the low pressure system and expect a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop and continue into Wednesday. We may see a brief period of Gale Force winds across portions of the waters Tuesday evening. Seas will build Tuesday and peak around 7-10 ft Tuesday night, then will gradually subside Wednesday and Wednesday night. A cold front will push across the waters with winds becoming NW to N around 10-15 kt and seas around 3 to 5 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ SHORT TERM...RCF/RJ LONG TERM...SK/RCF AVIATION...SK/MS MARINE...SK/RCF/RJ