FXUS62 KMHX 210513 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 113 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move into the region Tuesday becoming stationary to the south Wednesday, before moving back north on Thursday. Strong high pressure returns to the area Friday and into the holiday weekend, however a wavy frontal boundary to the north could sag south into portions of the area late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1 am Tue...Only very small isolated weak showers across the region. Have removed mention for remainder of overnight. Continued well above climo tonight with Min T's 65-70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Mon...The cool front will be offshore of the coast by the morning, and some relief from the very warm temps expected as highs will be near to climo, 80-85 interior, with mid 70s OBX zones under NE winds. Mostly sunny skies expected throughout. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 245 PM Mon...A brief reprieve from the heat is expected through Wednesday behind a cold front. Then a return to a highly amplified upper pattern is expected across the CONUS for the remainder of the period resulting in a strong upper ridge over the southeast states. This pattern favors well above average temperatures, possibly reaching record levels. Complicating the temperature forecast is a wavy frontal boundary forecast over the mid Atlantic region which will likely oscillate north/south and could drift into portions of eastern NC late week into the weekend producing slightly cooler but still above normal temperatures especially north coast if onshore flow develops. Still looks like a predominately dry forecast through the period. The aforementioned wavy frontal boundary could also result in some isolated to widely scattered convective activity at times but current models indicate no significant/organized precipitation events over the next 7 days. Tuesday night and Wednesday...Low level north to easterly flow behind the front will bring a quick reprieve from the heat, with more pleasant and seasonable temps and dewpoints through Wed. Low level thickness values and onshore flow support highs in the low 80s inland and low/mid 70s along the coast Wednesday. Thursday through Monday...A strengthening upper level ridge will move out of the Gulf of Mexico and park itself over the deep south Thursday into early next week. Surface high pressure will again set up over the western Atlantic, bringing a return to deep SW flow to the region. Early signs are showing that this combination could bring close to record heat to the Southeast US. However, the latest model runs continue to show the ridge a bit further west, placing Eastern NC on the peripheral of the heat, and vulnerable to wavy front from the north drifting south into portions of the area though it still looks the potential for very hot conditions still exists and will forecast inland highs in the 90s through the period and mid to upper 80s closer to the coast. Continued to trend towards previous forecast, WPC and the ECMWF which keeps the ridge in place. Right now the hottest days look like Sunday and Monday. ECMWF shows 850mb temps 20C+ over most of Eastern NC Sunday through the middle of next week. Record high temps will be possible. Please see Climate section below for details. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through 06Z Wed/... As of 115 am Tue...VFR conditions in the short term. Mostly sunny skies and winds switching to north expected today as a weak front drops south through the area. SKC tonight with east to northeast wind 5 knots or less. Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 245 PM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, though cannot rule out patchy shallow fog and/or stratus each morning at the terminals. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 115 am...Winds in the Pamlico Sound and in the northern and central waters continue to gust to SCA levels. Post-frontal surge also expected through early afternoon, so will post SCA for the sounds and northern and central waters through 18Z. Winds will diminish this afternoon as the gradient relaxes. Seas are currently 2-3 ft and will increase to 3-4 ft tonight, lingering into Tuesday. Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 245 PM Mon...High pressure will be the dominant feature through the period. N to E winds diminish to 10-20 kt Tuesday night and Wed. S/SW winds 5-15 kt return for Thu. Guidance continues to show a front pushing through the waters Friday with winds briefly becoming NW/N 10-15 kt over the northern and central waters, and NE Fri night. E/NE flow 10-15 kt will continue across the waters Saturday. Seas generally 2 to 4 ft through the period. Seas may build up to 6 ft across the outer waters Sat afternoon north of Ocracoke with increasing longer period NE swell energy combined with the onshore flow. && .CLIMATE... Record or near record warmth is expected late this week into early next week. Record High temps for 5/24 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 96/2011 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 87/1992 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 99/1925 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 87/1992 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 94/1994 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 95/2011 (KNCA ASOS) Record High temps for 5/26 (Sunday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 100/1953 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 88/1962 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 99/1927 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 96/1953 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 96/2011 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 94/2004 (KNCA ASOS) Record High temps for 5/27 (Monday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 96/1989 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 86/2004 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 96/1962 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 88/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 96/2011 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 97/1989 (KNCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ135- 150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...HSA SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...JME/CQD AVIATION...HSA/RF/CQD MARINE...HSA/RF/CQD CLIMATE...MHX