FXUS62 KMHX 052027 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 427 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will remain just offshore into the weekend, with another weak front impacting the area Friday night into Saturday. High pressure then builds over the area for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 345 PM Thu...A weak front and inverted coastal trough remain just off the coast this evening, with modest moisture convergence generating showers and maybe a stray storm that could work back over the southern OBX. Then, later tonight, developing low pressure over the Southeast will bring the front back toward the beaches, with scattered showers and storms possible through the early morning hours mainly along the coast south of Oregon Inlet. Further inland, modest height rises aloft and surface high pressure building in from the west will bring about mainly clear skies this evening, with a weak gradient that will allow the boundary layer to decouple shortly after sunset. With the lower inversion late and modest BL moisture persisting, patchy to areas of fog or low stratus could develop, with the fog potentially bringing localized visibilities of 1 mile or less. Temps coolest inland, reaching the mid to lower 60s where radiational cooling will be prevalent through the evening/overnight, with lows in the lower 70s closer to the coast with more cloud cover and light onshore flow. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 4 PM Thu...A shortwave rounding the base of the upper trough to our West will prompt surface low pressure to move into central SC Friday, deepening further as it moves into central NC Friday night. This will bring modest frontogenesis locally, with the offshore boundary gradually lifting across the area as a warm front Friday midday through the afternoon. While the low level theta-e advection will be modest, it is enough to justify high end chance to likely POPs mainly along the surface boundary as it becomes intertwined with the sea breeze and moves north across the area through the afternoon. 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE means that thunder is possible, but weak shear and unimpressive mid level lapse rates will limit the severe threat. However, PWAT values surging to 2-2.5+ inches once again means that there is a localized flooding threat given the already saturated ground (especially near the coast). Cloud cover will moderate highs to a few degrees below normal. Convective activity will wane with the loss of diurnal hearing in the evening, but deep moisture advection within the warm sector of the developing inland low and a conditionally unstable atmosphere justifies chance POPs overnight, increasing through the early morning hours as falling heights aloft bring broad destabilization. Cloudy skies and scattered showers/storms justify low temps near normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 255 AM Thu...A mid level shortwave trough will continue to move across the area Sunday leading to an uptick in showers and storms. More substantial and persistent upper level ridging is forecast to build over the region early through mid next week leading to warm temps and isolated to widely scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms beginning Sunday. Saturday...Scattered to numerous showers and tstms expected as the aforementioned shortwave moves into the area. This activity is likely to continue area wide into Sat evening. Sunday through mid next week...More typical summer weather expected through the period with isolated to widely scattered mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms and warm temperatures. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Friday/... As of 4 PM Thu...Onshore flow will keep ample low level moisture in place into Friday. Clouds are mostly scattered this afternoon into this evening as increased mixing is occurring, but a brief patch of MVFR ceilings moving over the terminals before midnight cannot be ruled out. Than, late tonight through the early morning hours, building subsidence aloft will strengthen the low level inversion, trapping the modest moisture in the lower level and bringing the threat of fog for locations that experience efficient radiational cooling (mainly inland). Have included fog for several hours early Friday morning for all terminals, with greatest coverage and intensity expected further SW (ISO and OAJ). Visibilities could drop toward LIFR late, but confidence is too low to include that severity of vis restrictions at this time. Additionally, IFR stratus could develop (even for locations that do not decouple) given the maritime airmass in place. Conditions could be slow to improve after sunrise Friday given the weak gradient in place, but mixing will eventually bring VFR conditions in the morning. Scattered storms are expected Friday afternoon, bringing the threat for brief flight restrictions to all terminals. LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/... As of 255 AM Thu...More widespread showers and storms are forecast for Fri night into Sat evening with occasional sub VFR conditions. Predominate VFR conditions Sun and Mon as high pressure aloft builds overt the area resulting in only isolated afternoon/evening showers and t-storms. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday Night/... As of 415 PM Thu...A coastal trough lingering nearby will keep mainly light to moderate onshore winds in place tonight through Friday. Then, a warm front will lift across the waters later Friday, with moderate S to SW winds prevailing Friday night. Seas linger around 3 to 4 ft in S to SW windswell through the period. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 255 AM Wed...On Fri, winds will veer from to E/SE 5-10 kt early to SE/S in the afternoon, then becoming S/SW 10-15 kt Sat. Sat night and Sunday, there are large differences in the models as a front moves through the waters. The GFS develops SCA conditions with a low vicinity of the Del Marva Sat evening. This looks too strong so sided with the NAM and will bring a front through the waters with winds shifting SW 10-20 kt Sat night to NW 10-15 kt late Sat night and early Sunday then becoming N/NE 5-10 kt Sunday afternoon. Will forecast winds to come around to the SW 5-10 kt Mon. Seas Fri and Sat will be 2-4 ft, building briefly to 3-5 ft Sat night. Seas should subside to 2-3 ft Sunday and Mon. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 203>205. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...JME/MS AVIATION...JME/CB/MS MARINE...JME/CB/MS