FXUS62 KMHX 310021 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 721 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 .SYNOPSIS... An active, wet weather pattern is expected across the area for the coming week. High pressure briefly builds into the area tonight and tomorrow before multiple waves of low pressure bring unsettled weather for the rest of the work week. High pressure then builds back into the area Friday night and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 1900 Monday...Story of this shift will be watching obs for potential issuance of dense fog advisories. Areas along the OBX from Ocracoke N have dipped down to 2mi or less VIS already, having touched 1/4mi briefly, but have since come back up above that threshold for dense fog advisory. Previous Discussion...As of 330 PM Mon...Latest analysis shows a 1015mb low, per RAP analysis, several miles off the coast of Cape Hatteras and lifting further out to sea as very weak high pressure attempts to build over the mid- Atlantic, all under a belt of fast-moving mid-level westerlies. A special 15z MHX sounding revealed a shallow but pronounced low-level frontal inversion, which has kept an expansive deck of low stratus socked over our entire FA. Clouds are expected to gradually break starting early tonight over the coastal plain as drier air works its way across the region. However, as high pressure gradually strengthens over the area and strengthens the low-level inversion, widespread fog is anticipated to quickly fill in with light winds and freshly moistened soils. Guidance today has continually pointed to at least locally dense fog, and Dense Fog Advisories are possible for the FA early tomorrow morning. Low clouds and fog will keep the diurnal curve relatively flat tonight, with temperatures bottoming out in the upper 40s north of Highway 264 and 50s for the rest of the FA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 345 PM Mon...With weak mixing and a shallow but fully saturated low-levels fog will be slow to lift. Hi-res guidance soundings indicate low stratus will continue hang on through much of the day tomorrow, but mainly dry weather is expected until late afternoon and evening as all layers above roughly 900mb are quite dry. Two distinct features will drive the precip chances, the first being a wave of low pressure riding along the frontal boundary that pushed through today (which will be decaying tomorrow). Model trends have pointed to any precip with this feature remaining offshore, but a slight chance of some rain across the Crystal Coast is not out of the question. The second, and more probable feature, will be the cold front currently impinging on the Appalachians expected to migrate towards the Carolinas late. The best dynamic lift across the mid-Atlantic will not coincide with the deeper moisture further south, but some light rain is possible closer to northeastern NC. Low clouds again keep the diurnal curve depressed, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Mon...High pressure briefly builds in through Tuesday but a progressive and wet pattern continues through the remainder of the week with upper ridging centered across the southeast Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean bringing near zonal mid level flow across the eastern CONUS. A series of weak shortwave troughs and sfc low reflections will track across the Southern states and lift along the Carolina coast through the middle of the week will keep mostly cloudy skies with periods of rain. The strongest system expected to impact the area Thursday into Friday as a robust southern stream trough pushes across the Gulf states and Southeast. High pressure builds into the area Friday night and Saturday, with another offshore low possibly impacting the area late weekend. Temps expected to be near or a few degrees above normal for Tuesday, then drop to near or slightly below normal through the remainder of the week, though there may be some variability depending of the eventual track of the individual low pressure systems. Coldest day still looks to be Saturday with highs struggling to get into the mid 40s, with 850mb temps 0 to -4C. Still no real ptype concerns at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tues aft/... As of 1830 Monday...Stratus trapped beneath a stout low level inversion still lingering across TAF sites currently. Drying in the midlevels will work its way through the column and allow this stratus to scatter out later tonight. Areas of fog are forecast to develop rather quickly once skies clear leading to more widespread IFR/LIFR overnight, especially after 05-06z underneath the strengthening subsidence inversion. Both low CIGs and fog, likely dense in the early morning hours, are expected to last into Tues afternoon with very poor mixing persisting. LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/... As of 3 AM Mon...A series of low pressure systems will impact the area through Friday. Increasing confidence in widespread sub-VFR conditions through the period. Areas of fog likely Tue morning, with vsbys slowing improving through low stratus will likely linger with potential for IFR. Periods of rain likely Tuesday night through Friday, with best chances Thu into early Fri. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight and Tuesday/... As of 1910 Monday...Will be monitoring webcams and limited obs for potential issuance of Marine Dense Fog Advisories. Fog has developed just offshore over central waters but a slight uptick in windspeeds has thinned it out some. Expecting marine dense fog advisories will need to be issued later tonight for Nern and Central waters and all inland rivers/sounds after midnight lasting into at least midmorning. Previous Discussion...As of 355 PM Mon...Regional observations indicate mainly northerly winds of 5-10 knots on the backside of a weak departing low off the coast with seas 2-4 feet. Winds over the waters will remain northerly at 5 knots or less as weak high pressure attempts to build over the waters. Only appreciable uptick in winds will be late tomorrow, mainly owing an approaching cold front from the north. This will be felt mainly across the northern waters with northeasterly winds around 10 kts. Seas through the period hover at around 2-3 feet. The light winds and building high pres will likely lead to a setup of dense marine fog tonight into tomorrow morning, with vsby's expected to be around 1 mi or less at times, esp for the interior rivers and sounds. LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/... As of 3 AM Mon...Northerly winds will increase to 15-25 kt late Tue night and Wed with seas building to 5-7 ft. SCA conditions likely. NE-NNW winds 10-15 kt Thu into Thu night with seas 3-5 ft. Increasing northerly winds Fri 15-25 kt with seas building to 5-7 ft and another round of SCA conditions likely continuing into the weekend. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS/CEB SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...CQD/OJC AVIATION...CQD/CEB/OJC MARINE...CQD/MS/OJC