FXUS62 KMLB 260830 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 430 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019 .DISCUSSION... ...Hot and Dry Weather Will Continue Through This Week... ...Moderate Rip Current Risk Also Expected... Today-tonight...The strong mid level ridge overhead will continue to keep conditions suppressed, dry and increasingly hot today/tonight. the surface high pressure ridge axis, which remains across north Florida early this morning, will continue to sag south into the northern CWA by tonight. Light SE-SSE low level flow will allow the ECSB to form and move into the interior, but at a slightly slower pace, with the low level flow having veered a bit. This should allow max temps to rise about a degree (maybe 2 in a few spots) above the maxes that occurred Saturday - M80s along the immediate Treasure Coast, U80s-L90s from Volusia County southward across the interior coastal counties and eastern interior, and M90s for the central-west interior. While maxes are capped at M90s (94-96F) again today, a couple spots NW of I-4 could flirt with the U90s (97F). Winds will drop to light-calm overnight with dry air allowing mins to fall back into the L70s, with U60s over the interior central/south. Monday-Thursday...No major changes in the overall synoptic pattern as the strong ridge of high pressure remains in control. This will keep the airmass too dry and suppressed to support any rainfall across the area. The main story will be the heat with temperatures soaring well into the mid 90s and possibly upper 90s across the interior each day and generally upper 80s/near 90 toward the coast. The surface ridge axis settles slightly southward on Mon-Weds allowing a light offshore flow to develop from northern Brevard county northward. This will slightly delay the seabreeze moving inland which will likely allow some lower 90s for northern coastal spots. Not quite record high territory, but it will still be hot nonetheless. Min temps will also remain very mild and in the low 70s...although upper 60s are still possible in the more rural spots inland. Friday-Sunday...A series of mid-level shortwaves traversing across the Northern Plains, Ohio Valley, and off the East Coast will begin to flatten the strong mid/upper-level ridge by late week continuing into next weekend. Moisture also will increase allowing (finally) some mentionable shower and storm chances to return to the forecast as the seabreezes move inland during the afternoons, but precip chances only stand around 20% on Friday. The better chance (around 30%), however, looks to be next weekend as the center of the high pressure ridge retreats over the Gulf of Mexico. Hot temperatures continue with low-mid 90s inland to upper 80/near 90 along the coast for highs. Mins will be low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Spotty MVFR CIGs BKN020-025 MLB-SUA through about 12-13Z, mixing out shortly thereafter, && .MARINE...Today-tonight...Light synoptic SE-SSE winds will back more easterly and increase with the afternoon ECSB circulation. Winds will become light SE (south of SIPF1) to SW (Volusia County waters) tonight. Seas 2-3FT. Monday-Thursday...Favorable boating conditions this week with surface ridge axis forecast to be draped across central Florida. This will result in a south to southeasterly wind south of Cape Canaveral and south to southwesterly to the north. Winds will veer east to southeasterly as the seabreeze develops in the afternoon. Speeds are expected to remain generally around 10 kt but could approach 15 kt at times. Seas will be 2-3 ft, but the offshore waters may approach 4 ft on Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Minimum RH values will drop below 40 percent across the northern and central interior for the next several afternoons, reaching 35 percent in some locations, especially from around I-4 north. Winds will remain below 15 MPH outside of the ECSB circulation. && .CLIMATE...Record High and Warm-Minimum temperatures through Tuesday. MAY 26 MAY 27 MAY 28 HIGH WARM MIN HIGH WARM MIN HIGH WARM MIN ------------------- ------------------- ------------------ DAB 100 (1953) 76 (2015) 97 (1967) 75 (1998) 99 (2000) 76 1953 MCO 99 (1953) 74 (2015) 100 (1962) 76 (1953) 99 (2000) 78 1903 SFB 100 (1962) 74 (2015) 100 (1962) 75 (2000) 100 (1953) 74 2018 MLB 95 (1962) 79 (2015) 95 (1962) 76 (2015) 97 (2000) 77 1953 VRB 97 (1975) 77 (2015) 98 (1953) 79 (1991) 96 (1967) 77 1953 FPR 98 (1949) 77 (1933) 95 (1902) 77 (1991) 95 (2000) 78 1924 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 90 71 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 94 72 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 87 73 89 71 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 87 69 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 96 73 97 75 / 0 0 10 10 SFB 94 71 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 94 72 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 86 70 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cristaldi LONG TERM....Combs AVIATION...Cristaldi