FXUS62 KMLB 281932 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 332 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 .DISCUSSION... ...High Coverage of Showers and Thunderstorms Through Late Week... Current-Tonight...As expected, the west coast sea breeze has already raced across the peninsula and a collision with the east coast sea breeze along the I-95 corridor. Numerous outflow boundaries are present all across east central FL, with a bulk of activity stretching along the coast from Daytona Beach towards Lake Okeechobee. Sufficient instability could lead to stronger cells, with wind gusts above 40 mph and frequent lightning. As advertised over the last several days, a heightened flood threat will be present due to deep moisture (PW +2.00") plus slower storm motion in light south to southwest flow. Rainfall totals above 3" are likely especially in areas mentioned where stronger activity has set up. Latest runs of meso models not eager in activity lingering into the early evening hours, taking this current line at the coast over the Atlantic waters with not much building in the wake. This would be similar to yesterday's setup; however a slightly earlier start may mean an earlier end to convection. Still, would anticipate stronger storms to clear by the late afternoon, with only lingering showers and debris cloud cover leftover through sunset. A quiet overnight is in store as isolated showers shift from the west to east coasts. High temperatures most likely have already been reached this afternoon, with anvil top cloud cover spreading over most of the forecast area. Low temperatures tonight will fall to the mid to upper 70s, which the chance for a few warm minimum temp records. Tomorrow...A wet season persistence forecast is on tap for Thursday, with the extended Atlantic ridge axis positioned over South Florida keeping light SW/W flow over the area. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will nearly be a "copy/paste" setup from today, with an early initialization along the Gulf Coast, spreading across the interior in the late morning to early afternoon and colliding with the slower east coast sea breeze between 2-4pm. Again, with little change in steering flow, storm motion will be slow again contributing to high rainfall rates and threat for flooding. Highs climb to the low to mid 90s, with heat indices above 100 degrees. Low temps fall to the low to mid 70s. Fri-Tue...The subtropical high pressure ridge center remains centered well into the Atlc with associated ridge axis surpressed across the southern FL peninsula through well into the extended. Aloft, weak ridging in the mid-levels is forecast, and though early next week a general troughiness pattern tries to set up just to the north with some stronger mid-level westerlies and perhaps some shortwave energy. This will allow for a weak surface boundary to be forced into the Deep South north of Florida and to continue to allow for deep moisture to be drawn north into ECFL. We can expect a weak pressure gradient at the surface which favors light offshore winds each night/morning followed by sea breeze development daily at the coast with slow inland movement. Storm steering flow will be weak and erratic at times. The sea breeze combined with deep moisture and daytime heating will be the driver of showers and lightning storms each afternoon, as rain chances range from 50-60 percent each afternoon/evening. Frequent lightning strikes, torrential downpours, and gusty winds will continue to be the primary threats from storms. There will be a higher threat for localized flooding due to slow storm motion, as previously mentioned, with some storms likely able to produce 1-3 inches of rain in a 1-2 hour time period. Areas that receive daily heavy rainfall and local streams/rivers will also need to be monitored. Afternoon highs should reach the L90s along the coast and L-M90s inland, with peak heat indices between 101 and 106 each day. It will remain muggy overnight as lows settle in the M-U70s. Cloud debris will slowly thin each evening and overnight. && .AVIATION... TAF sites will start off with thunderstorms through the afternoon hours before drying out later this evening. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected. Winds will remain light from the southeast during the afternoon hours before switching from the west-southwest this evening. && .MARINE... Tonight-Tomorrow...Generally favorable boating conditions with light SW/W winds and seas 1-2 ft, up to 3 ft in the offshore waters. Scattered to numerous lightning storms however will make for hazardous conditions in the afternoon, with gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes moving across the Atlantic waters. Activity will persist through sunset before mostly clearing during the overnight. Fri-Mon...Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local waters through the upcoming weekend and likely into early next week outside of any shower/storm activity. Winds will generally be light/moderate (AOB 15 kts). Wind direction will become offshore each evening/overnight and gradually southeast to south at 10-15 knots behind the sea breeze each afternoon. Seas around 1-2 feet near the coast, with 3 feet possible well offshore. The highest coverage of afternoon storms will generally focus along and west of I-95, though there will still be activity across the Intracoastal Waterway and very near shore Atlc waters. Weak west winds and some dominant boundary collisions will also nudge a few storms toward the coast late each afternoon and evening. Cloud-to- water lightning strikes, torrential downpours, and a few wind gusts to 35 knots will be the main threats to mariners. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 75 90 75 / 60 40 60 10 MCO 94 77 94 76 / 60 30 70 10 MLB 92 76 91 77 / 60 20 60 20 VRB 93 76 92 75 / 60 20 60 30 LEE 93 77 92 77 / 60 40 70 10 SFB 93 76 92 76 / 60 40 60 10 ORL 94 77 93 78 / 60 40 70 10 FPR 93 74 91 75 / 60 30 60 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM....Leahy AVIATION...Fehling