FXUS62 KMLB 310215 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 915 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 ...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION, CLIMATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 915 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 Diurnal CU/SC has mostly dissipated save for some leftover scraps which formed along an early evening (otherwise benign) collision of the EC/WC sea breezes, and expect these to dissipate shortly. Surface/low level ridge axes remain draped across the central CWA with increasing dew pts leading to a more favorable setup for fog tonight. Inherited forecast has this well covered hence no changes are needed to the ZFP. Another warm night with mins in the L-M60s, U60s in the Orlando metro and along the immediate Treasure Coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 915 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 Position of surface ridge axis will result in a gentle to light SSE to SSW breeze near 10kt. Seas 2-3ft. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 915 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 VFR/SKC with LCL SCT050-060 through 07-08Z. Expect mist/STFRA to form thereafter, with IFR/LIFR in locally dense fog/low stratus forming through 13Z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 839 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 RECORDS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LOC DATE HI-MAX LEE 30-Jan 84 2013 (85 today - New record) SFB 30-Jan 85 2002 (85 today - Tied record) LOC DATE HI-MAX HI-MIN DAB 31-Jan 86 1985 66 1947 LEE 31-Jan 86 1991 67 2002 SFB 31-Jan 86 2002 64 2002 MCO 31-Jan 86 1982 67 1947 MLB 31-Jan 88 1991 72 2002 VRB 31-Jan 88 1991 71 2002 FPR 31-Jan 89 1991 70 1950 LOC DATE HI-MAX HI-MIN DAB 1-Feb 89 1985 64 1974 LEE 1-Feb 84 2002 66 1974 SFB 1-Feb 86 1985 66 1957 MCO 1-Feb 87 1985 66 1957 MLB 1-Feb 86 1985 67 1957 VRB 1-Feb 84 2014 69 2014 FPR 1-Feb 88 1949 71 1950 && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 Tuesday...Clearing conditions by mid-morning will lead to afternoon temps well into the 80s with a developing onshore breeze providing some relief along the coast and beaches by early afternoon. Wednesday-Thursday...Hot and dry conditions persisting through midweek, with ridging extending from the surface up through the mid to upper levels. SW winds becoming onshore during the afternoon along the coast, as the sea breeze returns, around 10mph or less. Highs remaining well (10-15 degrees) above average, in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows in the low to mid-60s. Some patchy fog looks possible for at least late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Will continue to monitor for possible fog on Thursday morning. Friday-Monday...Ridge aloft weakens as a trough moves through the central US towards the area, with the associated surface low and cold front approaching the peninsula and passing across east central Florida Friday through Friday night. Scattered showers are expected along the frontal passage. Model guidance is indicating enough instability that some isolated thunderstorm development could occur as the front passes over the area, so kept a slight chance for thunder in the forecast. There are some timing discrepancies between the GFS and Euro on when exactly the front will push through, but both have the frontal passage no later than early Saturday morning. Over the weekend, shortwave energy aloft lingers over the western Atlantic near the Bahamas, possibly developing a surface reflection. This will keep enough moisture and support over the local area for some isolated to scattered shower development through the weekend across east central Florida. Breezy to windy onshore winds are also forecast behind the front. Temperatures cooling through the period, though highs will be on the warmer side Friday afternoon before the FROPA, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s north of I-4 and low 70s southward into the weekend. Overnight lows in the 50s across the area. && .MARINE... Tuesday...Predominant ridge over the region will keep mostly favorable open water conditions over the Atlantic. Seas around 2 to 3 ft near the coast and 3 to 4 ft well offshore. Winds 7 to 12 kt, with enhancement along the immediate coast in the afternoon breeze regime. Wednesday-Thursday...High pressure persisting over the local area, with dry conditions continuing. SW/S winds around 10kts or less in the mornings becoming S/SE during the afternoons as the sea breeze develops along the coast. Seas 3-4ft. Friday-The Weekend...A cold front looks to approach the local area Friday morning, then reaching it by later Friday into Friday night. Shower chances increasing, becoming scattered to numerous, with a few lightning storms possible. After the front, lingering shortwave energy will continue to support shower development over the waters through the weekend. N winds behind the front Friday night quickly veering onshore into Saturday, strengthening to around 20-30kts, with higher gusts. Near-gale conditions look to be possible this weekend, with seas building to up to 10-13ft, before the shortwave lifts NE away from the area early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 62 80 62 80 / 10 10 10 0 MCO 65 83 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 64 80 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 64 82 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 64 83 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 65 84 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 67 84 66 84 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 65 80 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cristaldi LONG TERM....Watson AVIATION...Cristaldi