FXUS62 KRAH 250537 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 137 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will sweep across central NC tonight. High pressure will build in from the north Thursday through Friday night, before shifting offshore over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 850 PM EDT Tuesday... As the cold front continues to move across NC tonight, a few showers will linger over portions of the Sandhills and along portions of the southern Coastal Plain . The shower activity is expected to diminish over the next few hours as the cold front exits the region. A few lingering clouds will clear out later tonight with some patchy mid and high clouds early morning. Light and variable winds overnight will become NE at 5-10 mph by the morning persisting through the day. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the mid/upper 40s north, and upper 40s to low 50s in the south. As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday... Latest sfc and radar analysis this afternoon depict a continued east-southeastward moving pre- frontal/rain cooled outflow induced light stratiform rain band. This band of light rain will continue ese the next several hours before exiting our area later this evening. The associated overcast cloud deck will also disperse behind this feature (KINT has already cleared out) clearing from north to south through the overnight hours. Flow will turn more wnwly as the synoptic cold front (currently entering the western slopes of the Appalachians) sweeps through overnight. However, gustiness should be subdued behind the front and the passage is expected to be dry. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 40s/lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... ...Seasonably Cool and Dry conditions... A ~1030 mb surface high over SE Canada will build south down the Mid- Atlantic and into the Carolinas through the period. Troughing over the Eastern US will move offshore late Thursday, as an amplifying ridge builds in from the Central US. NELY low-level flow will result in seasonably cool temperatures and very comfortable humidity levels. After fair weather cumulus Thursday, an upslope and WAA regime on the eastern slopes of the mtns, coupled with shortwave impulses cresting atop the ridge axis, will yield periods of broken mid/high clouds Thursday night and Friday especially, across the western piedmont. Thus, Friday will be the coolest day of the two. Highs Thursday ranging from upper 60s/near 70 north to mid 70s south, with highs Friday averaging 2-3 degrees cooler. Conversely, Thursday night will be the coolest of the two nights. Lows in the lower/mid 40s north to lower 50s south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 355 PM Wednesday... Central NC will be under the influence of a high-amplitude mid/upper ridge as it slowly migrates across the eastern US from Saturday through Monday. Thus dry weather and increasing temperatures will prevail during this period. At the surface, 1030-1035 mb high pressure will be centered east of the NJ coast on Saturday, which will result in E/SE flow that will keep skies mostly covered by low/mid level clouds. This will promote near-normal high temperatures in the lower-to-mid-70s and slightly-above-normal lows Saturday night in the lower-to-mid-50s. The surface high will weaken and sink south to off the Carolinas/GA coast on Sunday and Monday, shifting the surface flow to a S/SW direction. With the mid/upper ridge strengthening and becoming centered over the mid-Atlantic, skies will mostly clear and high temperatures will reach the upper- 70s to lower-80s on Sunday and mid-to-upper-80s on Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the mid-50s to lower-60s. While these temperatures won't break any records, they are still 5-15 degrees above normal. Clouds and precipitation chances will be on the increase on Tuesday afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough and associated cold front approach from the west. There could be enough instability for some storms. The shortwave doesn't look too vigorous and model QPF is on the light side, so only carry slight to low chance POPs at this time (highest NW). While the deterministic ECMWF and GFS bring the front through central NC on Tuesday evening/night and to our SE by Wednesday, a minority of ensemble members are slower with its passage which warrants continuing slight chance POPs on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 135 AM Thursday... 24 hour TAF period: Some IFR vsbys have developed over the eastern half of central NC, with KRWI the only TAF terminal experiencing restrictions as of 06Z. LIFR cigs and vsbys are expected at KRWI later tonight. The question is if this will impact KRDU and/or KFAY as it spreads west-southwestward tonight. For now will continue to hint at the possibility in the TAFs at KRDU and KFAY, but will wait until confidence increases to include lower restrictions. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to dominate through the TAF period. Winds will become nely to ely Thu/Thu eve in the wake of the front, increasing into the 6-10 kt range at times. A stray shower over the Coastal Plain will be possible, but given the low confidence in occurrence will leave out for now. Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions are expected Thu night into Fri morn and possibly again for a brief period during the pre-dawn hours Sat morn. Otherwise, largely VFR conditions are expected through Mon. There is also a non-zero chance for some patchy light rain, mainly in the Triad, Fri night/Sat, otherwise generally dry weather is expected through Mon. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Luchetti/Badgett NEAR TERM...CA/Luchetti SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...Danco AVIATION...KC