FXUS62 KTAE 290858 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 358 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 ...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND ADJACENT WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 306 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 The main concerns today into tonight will be the potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall. Broad shortwave trough lifts out of the Southern Plains while the air mass over our region gradually warms and moistens. A developing warm front will move northward this afternoon into early tonight through much of our FL Counties and into portions of Southwest GA and Southeast AL. Precip will develop late this morning into the early afternoon as strong isentropic ascent acts on an air mass characterized by Precipitable Water values around 1.7 inches, which is near the maximum of climatology. Periods of heavy rain are likely roughly northwest of a Valdosta-Bainbridge-Panama City line. The rain is expected to gradually taper off from Southwest to Northeast after midnight. Storm total rainfall of less than one inch in the FL Big Bend will increase to 1 to 2.5 inches for points north and west, with isolated higher amounts around 4 inches. This will yield mostly poor drainage flooding with flash flooding unlikely. While some elevated thunderstorms are possible north of the warm front as we get into this afternoon, the severe weather threat remains convoluted. While the shear (both deep layer and low-level) is a lock, the development of surface-based instability and the extent of forcing within the warm sector remains uncertain. Highest confidence in severe weather is in the FL Panhandle mainly after 3 PM CT and the Western Big Bend mainly after 9 PM ET, especially closer to the coast. Depending on the northward extent of instability, a briefer severe weather threat is possible into portions of Southeast AL. The severe weather threat is marginal, with isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado possible. As mentioned, a lack of forcing in the warm sector could limit activity. Expect storms to gradually end from west to east Sunday Night, but the potential for severe weather may continue well into the overnight hours, especially near the coast. Expect fog to develop Sunday Night into Monday morning, which could be locally dense, especially in the FL Counties. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 306 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 Rain chances will slowly come to an end through the day Monday as forcing/dynamics move away from the region. A cold front will enter the area Monday, make a run towards the coast or northern Gulf waters, stall, and eventually dissipate Monday night. Warm and moist air will remain over the coast and Gulf waters, coupled with cooler shelf waters, will lead to marine and eventually over land advection fog which will move north through the night on southerly winds. Additional fog will develop into inland areas overnight into Tuesday morning. Some dense fog is possible, especially in the southern half of the area. On its heels, another cold front, aided by a weak disturbance aloft, will arrive Tuesday. That disturbance moves northeast fairly quickly and will allow only a slight chance for rain in portions of our northern half of the area through the day. This front, much like its predecessor, will stall into our area Tuesday afternoon and night. As far as temperatures, surprisingly not much difference in highs each day with readings in the 70s. Lower 70s in our northern stretches to upper 70s along the coastal locations. Lows Monday night will fall towards 60 degrees in most locales. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 306 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 Upper high will remain entrenched in the Caribbean Wednesday and Thursday while an upper low will swing across northern Mexico and emerge into the southern Plains during the same timeframe. As the low ejects eastward, it will weaken while surface cyclogenesis takes place off the lower Texas coast. Upper ridging will break down as this feature moves east towards the southern US. The surface low tracks northeast into northern Alabama Thursday night while dragging a cold front through the area Thursday night into Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front as it swings through. There appears to be atleast a low end severe weather risk as shear will be strong ahead of the front but instability is questionable at this point. Rain chances end from west to east through the day Friday with dry northwesterly flow behind the system's departure. Temperatures will remain above seasonal normals Wednesday through Thursday with an eventual return to more seasonal temperatures Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 MVFR cigs will overspread all terminals around 12Z. SHRA with embedded TSRA will overspread the terminals in the 18Z to 23Z time frame, which will lead to periods of IFR/LIFR cigs and reduced vsbys. Don't however have TSRA at VLD as it looks to remain west of here. Widespread IFR/LIFR cigs are expected at all terminals after 00Z, including reduced vsby, with the exception of VLD where MVFR is anticipated. Easterly winds around 5 knots gradually clock around to southerly with the passage of a warm front and increase to around 10 kts today. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 A warm front will move north through the coastal waters today with winds becoming southeast today then southerly tonight and Monday. Thunderstorms, some strong and especially in waters west of Apalachicola, will occur today and tonight. A cold front will make a run towards the coast and nearshore waters but will stall and eventually dissipate Monday night. Warm and moist air overtop the cooler nearshore shelf waters will lead to some marine and coastal fog Monday night into Tuesday. Another cold front will make a run towards the Gulf waters later Tuesday and Tuesday night but this feature too appears to stall around the coast. Fog for Wednesday morning is more questionable depending how far south the front can reach. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 306 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 Wetting rains are forecast to begin today and continue into Monday, especially northwest of the Florida Big Bend. The main fire weather concern will be widespread low dispersions today across the tri-state region. At this time, there is not much improvement in dispersions expected on Monday and Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 306 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 A slight risk for excessive rainfall exists through tonight from the western Florida panhandle northeast into southwest Georgia. In this area, 1 to 2.5 inches of rainfall today through early Monday will be common, with isolated instances of 3 to 4 inch rain amounts could occur, especially from areas along and north of a Dothan to Albany line. Minor poor drainage flooding is the main concern. South of the slight risk area, amounts tail off quickly, from 0.5 to 0.75 south towards the I-10 corridor to less 0.25 towards the eastern Florida Big Bend. Beyond this system, off and on low chances for rain will occur Tuesday through Thursday across the northern half of the forecast area. The next true cold frontal passage occurs Friday and this should spell the end to the rain chances heading into the early part of next weekend. Concerning our rivers...Heavy rain will extend into north Alabama and Georgia through the week which this water will eventually flow into our rivers. Although none of our rivers are currently forecast to reach flood, several of them are in or will reach action stage in the coming days, including the Kinchafoonee and Muckalee, portions of the lower Flint, Choctawhatchee, Withlacoochee, and Ochlockonee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 69 62 78 63 / 50 70 30 0 Panama City 70 65 74 62 / 80 60 20 0 Dothan 66 61 73 60 / 80 80 40 10 Albany 64 58 73 58 / 70 90 40 10 Valdosta 68 61 78 62 / 60 60 30 0 Cross City 76 61 78 59 / 20 20 10 0 Apalachicola 68 65 72 62 / 50 60 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ108-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LF SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...LF MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...Scholl