FXUS62 KTAE 250611 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 211 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021 .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... A strong mid-upper level ridge centered over the Plains will continue to extend east across the southeast CONUS. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure off the east-central Florida coast will slowly move west today. With this setup, a much drier airmass will continue to infiltrate the tri-state region on deep layer northeast flow. Point soundings at various locations show forecast PWs ranging from 1.20-1.50" by mid to late afternoon; highest over Dixie County. As the surface low edges closer to the east coast of Florida tonight, low level flow will become more easterly bringing an influx of moisture and possibly a few showers to the far southeast big bend by late tonight or early Monday. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast area should be dry. It will be hot today with high temperatures reaching the mid 90s over most of the area. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s. .SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]... An upper level ridge over the Rockies is extending south and east to cover our CWA by Monday. Both the surface and upper level winds will remain easterly/northeasterly then shifting to southerly by the evening. The Atlantic sea breeze will increase our PoPs chances for Monday in our eastern Big Bend counties with precip chances around 50-60 percent. With the shift to southerly winds by Monday evening, the Gulf coast sea breeze will increase our rain chances region wide for Tuesday afternoon with PoPs between 60-70 percent. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid 90s and the Low Tuesday morning is expected to be in the mid 70s. The tropical wave that may become a tropical depression is expected to cross west over the FL peninsula by Tuesday. We will continue to monitor the situation to see if the system develops more organized tropical characteristics and how that will affect our weather in the days to come. .LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... Precip chances increase for the long term as our winds will remain southerly for the start of the term. PoPs will be near 70% on Wednesday across the CWA. About a 60-70% chance for the SE Big Bend on Thursday. Rain chances will be about 50% for the afternoons through the remainder of the term as the winds shift westerly/southwesterly providing the forcing for seabreeze convection from the Gulf coast. High temperatures for this term will range from the mid to upper 90s by the end of the week due to the upper level ridge that still is in play from the short term. Heat indices are expected to increase again into the low 100s but may remain below advisory criteria. Low temperatures for this term will be in the mid 70s. && .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Monday] VFR conditions are expected through the forecast cycle with only a brief MVFR restriction at VLD prior to sunrise. Dry conditions are expected to continue with light northeast to east winds. && .MARINE... Favorable marine conditions will exist through the middle of next week. Light to moderate northeast winds this weekend will turn to the southeast and south early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... There are no fire weather concerns at the present time. && .HYDROLOGY... No river flooding is forecast. Localized flooding of poor drainage areas is possible in the next few of days in areas that get training of thunderstorms. Generally widespread amounts of an inch or less is expected over the next few days but training and/or slower moving storms could exceed those amounts. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 97 73 95 75 92 / 10 10 40 30 70 Panama City 93 75 93 77 90 / 10 10 30 30 60 Dothan 93 72 94 74 93 / 10 0 30 20 70 Albany 94 72 95 75 93 / 10 10 40 20 70 Valdosta 96 72 93 74 92 / 10 10 50 20 70 Cross City 95 74 92 76 90 / 10 20 60 40 70 Apalachicola 89 76 90 78 89 / 10 10 30 30 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Barry SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM...Montgomery AVIATION...Barry MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Barry HYDROLOGY...Montgomery