FXUS62 KTAE 101950 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 350 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... ...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED TOMORROW SHOULD HELP WITH STORM RECOVERY AND SURVEY EFFORTS... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 341 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Dry post-frontal conditions this weekend give way to likely active weather early and late next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 341 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 A cold front will be making its passage through the CWA this evening. There may be a few scattered showers that develop along the front later this afternoon. If any storms develop, they are not expected to be severe. Upper level troughing will continue through today and tomorrow but at the surface, high pressure will build in following the front. Behind the front, drier conditions with more seasonal temperatures. Morning low temperatures will be in the low 60s Saturday morning. High temperatures will be in the low to mid-80s north of I-10, and mid to upper 80s along and south of I-10. Winds will be northerly, with not much concern for gusts averaging around 10-15 mph. We can expect mostly clear skies for Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Sunday night) Issued at 341 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Quiet weather continues through the short-term period thanks to surface high pressure and weak ridging in place amidst a post- frontal airmass. Sunday's high/low temperature forecast is low-mid 80s/upper-low 60s. A warming/moistening trend gets underway heading into Monday morning when winds turn southeasterly ahead of an approaching storm system traversing the South-Central Plains. Widespread lows in the mid 60s away from the immediate coast are on tap for us Sunday night. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 341 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Active weather defines the long-term period as a troughing pattern becomes established over the East-Central US while a robust westerly subtropical jet anchors itself across the Northern Gulf States. Global models agree on a shortwave trough pushing across the Midwest and sending showers/thunderstorms our way late Monday or early Tuesday, which could evolve into a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). The environment should be adequately sheared/unstable/moist to support potential dual threat for severe weather and flooding. If the MCS mode comes to fruition, then damaging winds, hail, and heavy rain would be the primary threats. Embedded tornadoes would be a possibility as well. This system clears our area mid-week with a narrow ridge quickly sliding across in its wake. As such, expect temporarily dry conditions Wednesday. By Thursday, rain chances spread from south to north ahead of the next storm system poised to develop over the Central Plains. Another round of severe weather is a possible on Friday given the negatively tilted nature of the attendant shortwave trough(s) rotating near the Great Lakes. A front should accompany this feature and help serve as focus for scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms that may organize into an MCS. Bottom line: we are looking at two rounds of potentially impactful weather at the beginning and end of the next work week. Forecast high temperatures are mostly in the 80s with overnight lows ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 341 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Lingering showers and possible thunder will be moving south along a boundary this afternoon. These showers are very light. Flight conditions will be improving through the rest of this afternoon into the evening hours. Winds will still be gusting up to around 20kts this afternoon until the evening hours. Skies will begin clearing as a cold front begins its passage through the region with winds shifting to the northwest beginning around 00z this evening. We will have a mix of MVFR to VFR ceilings until the frontal passage with conditions improving from the northwest to the southeast. VFR cigs are expected to prevail following 06z Saturday with light northerly winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 341 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Offshore buoys were reporting SE winds less than 15 kts with 2-3 ft seas and a dominant period of 6 seconds late this afternoon. From CWF Synopsis...Post-frontal offshore breezes overspread the waters late tonight at cautionary levels. Weekend boating conditions will be met with fair weather before chances for showers and thunderstorms increase early next week with the potential for impactful maritime convection on Tuesday. Northerly winds turn more southeasterly ahead of the upcoming storm system. Seas respond with waveheights in the 3 to 5 feet range. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 341 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Over the next few days, expect fair to generally good dispersions across the area with elevated to potentially high dispersions possible in our northernmost SE AL and SW GA counties tomorrow. Dry conditions are forecast tomorrow and Sunday following this mornings active weather. Saturday and Sunday may see increasing winds and a directional change to southerly, particularly along the coast as the seabreeze pushes inland. On Monday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to enter our SE AL and FL Panhandle counties in the morning to afternoon, gradually increasing in coverage as the storms move east throughout the CWA with a possible severe threat with these storms. Unsettled weather areawide is expected to continue through Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 341 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Radar-estimated precipitation over the past 24 hrs is widespread 1-2 inches, isolated 3-4+ from scattered strong to severe storms. Thankfully, dry weather is on tap for us this weekend as we will temporarily be post-frontal. Heavy rain concerns amplify next week thanks to a couple of storm systems poised to move across the region. The first is around Tuesday, followed by the second on Friday. Forecast amounts by the WPC has an additional 3-4 inches, which would prompt eventual riverine flooding (e.g., Ochlockonee basin). Excessive Rainfall Outlooks in the Day 4/5 period place a good chunk of the Tri-State area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4). && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 63 83 61 85 / 20 0 0 0 Panama City 65 83 66 83 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 59 80 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 59 80 59 82 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 62 82 59 84 / 20 0 0 0 Cross City 65 86 61 86 / 40 0 0 0 Apalachicola 68 83 67 81 / 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IG3 NEAR TERM...Montgomery SHORT TERM...IG3 LONG TERM....IG3 AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...IG3 FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery/Worster HYDROLOGY...IG3