FXUS62 KTBW 301815 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 215 PM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 ...Heat Indices Of 102 to 107 Degrees Expected On Saturday... .DISCUSSION... Dry warm mid and upper level air (500MB temp ~ -5C) is supporting much lower convective coverage across the forecast area early this afternoon compared to previous days with just some isolated showers noted on 88D returns across the Nature coast. As for the remainder of the afternoon some additional showers or storms will be possible with the best coverage expected across inland and eastern sections of the forecast area as the west coast sea breeze moves east. The showers and storms should wind down this evening with partly cloudy warm and muggy conditions expected overnight with low temperatures around 80 along the coast, and mid to upper 70s inland. Now during the weekend high pressure will remain to the south with a southwest to west wind flow continuing over the forecast area. Shower and storm coverage on Saturday should be similar to today as warm dry air aloft remains over the region with only isolated to scattered shower and storm coverage expected over inland locations during the afternoon. During Sunday higher rain chances will return as moisture increases again across the region with scattered to numerous shower/storm coverage expected. It will remain hot and very muggy through the period with overnight lows around 80 along the coast, and mid to upper 70s inland with daytime highs in the lower to mid 90s with heat indices in the 102 to 107 degree range each afternoon. Remember if you plan to be outdoors this weekend, drink plenty of water to stay hydrated. As we move in next week an amplifying upper level trough along the eastern seaboard and an attendant frontal boundary stalling out across the northern Gulf coast will keep the surface ridge axis suppressed to the south of the forecast area with a southwest to west flow pattern continuing over the forecast area. Increasing moisture combined with some upper level disturbances moving through the base of the eastern U.S. trough across the northern Gulf coast will lead to higher rain chances through the period with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected over the Gulf waters and along the coast during the late night and early morning hours each day, with the convection then shifting to inland areas each afternoon. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds will accompany the storms. It will remain hot and quite humid with overnight lows around 80 along the coast, and mid to upper 70s inland, with daytime highs in the lower to mid 90s with heat indices in the 101 to 106 degree range each afternoon. && .AVIATION... Dry and warm mid and upper level air is helping to suppress convective development over the region this afternoon. Given current and expected radar trends will depict VCSH at KTPA, KPIE, and KLAL terminals until 20Z to account for any isolated showers that develop, otherwise any convection that does manage to develop thereafter should remain to the east of the terminals with VFR expected through early Saturday. Southwest to west winds at 7 to 10 knots this afternoon will diminish to 5 knots or less after 00Z tonight, then increase to 7 to 10 after 14Z on Saturday. && .MARINE... High pressure from the Atlantic extending west across the southern peninsula and into the east central Gulf of Mexico will continue to support tranquil boating conditions over the Gulf waters through the weekend and into early next week with light southwest to west winds and slight seas expected with an enhanced onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast each afternoon. Wind and seas will be higher in the vicinity of thunderstorms, otherwise no headlines are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered to numerous diurnal showers and storms are expected each day through the weekend and into early next week. Lightning strikes from the storms will pose a risk for fire development, otherwise humidity values are forecast to remain well above critical levels with no other fire weather concerns expected. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 81 94 82 93 / 10 10 10 30 FMY 78 94 79 93 / 10 20 10 30 GIF 77 95 78 94 / 10 20 10 50 SRQ 78 91 79 91 / 0 10 10 20 BKV 75 93 75 92 / 10 20 10 40 SPG 82 91 82 91 / 10 10 10 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Today: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tomorrow: 4 For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to the link below https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday evening for Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/McMichael DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn