FXUS62 KTBW 261907 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 307 PM EDT Sun May 26 2019 .DISCUSSION... Deep layered ridging remains anchored over the southeast CONUS promoting dry conditions under mostly clear skies and above normal temperatures across the region. Guidance remains pretty unanimous that temperatures will continue to run 5 to 10 degrees above average with minimal rain chances through at least mid week...with afternoon sea breezes across coastal locations and perhaps a few passing clouds offering the only reprieve from the toasty temps. Expect that record high temperatures will continue to be challenged over the next few afternoons at climate sites across central and southwest Florida as high temps range from the mid and upper 90s across the interior to the low and mid 90s across coastal locales prior to the afternoon sea breeze moderating temps just a bit. To echo the previous discussion as a reminder...for those with outdoor plans this holiday weekend be sure to wear proper clothing, sunscreen and drink plenty of water. Beyond midweek the upper ridging will flatten out a bit as an upper level trough moves across the central Plains and Ohio River Valley and eventually off the eastern seaboard. Deep easterly flow aloft currently over the area will be replaced by westerlies which will enable further inland penetration by the afternoon sea breeze while east/southeast flow at lower levels will provide moisture transport over the peninsula...leading to the return of a more diurnal driven, summer-like pattern with afternoon showers and a possible thunderstorm primarily in association with daily sea breeze incursions. With the increase in cloud cover and rain chances will come a bit of relief from the recent warmth as temperatures return closer to more seasonal values...although the return of more humid conditions as well may be viewed as relief by some less than others. Nonetheless, expect afternoon high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s across the interior and upper 80s to low 90s along the coast heading into next weekend...which would be a few degrees closer to climatology but still on the warm side of things. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected throughout the period. Predominant easterly flow with onshore flow affecting immediate coastal terminals during afternoon with sea breeze...while southern terminals further inland remain mainly easterly. && .MARINE... High pressure from the Atlantic extending west-southwest across the northern peninsula will maintain a predominant easterly wind flow across the Gulf waters for the next several days. Slightly weaker easterly flow today will allow sea breeze to shift winds to the west and northwest along the coast during the afternoon with similar conditions expected into the Memorial Day Holiday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Ridging aloft will maintain elevated mixing heights resulting in somewhat high dispersions for the next couple of days. The associated dry air mass will drop minimum relative humidity values down to near 35 percent during the afternoon hours...especially inland...but no red flag conditions anticipated at this time. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 74 95 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 72 95 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 71 98 71 98 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 73 94 74 94 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 70 97 71 98 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 75 94 76 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...19/Hurt DECISION SUPPORT...05/Carlisle