FXUS63 KAPX 290736 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 236 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 .NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight) Issued at 236 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 ...Accumulating snow thru this morning... High Impact Weather Potential...Widespread snow across most of Northern Lower Michigan thru this morning...with highest accumulations along and southeast of a line from Cadillac to Grayling to Alpena. Stationary front remains stretched from the Southern Plains thru the Mid Mississippi Valley to just south of the Great Lakes early this morning. Elongated area of widespread snow continues to develop north of this boundary driven by isentropic ascent (I285) and deep moisture. Northern edge of the snow shield has reached far Northern Lower Michigan...with the heaviest snow falling across our SE CWA along and south of M-55 as expected. Vsbys within this area have generally been between 1 and 2SM with ongoing widespread snow. Low pressure developing along this stationary front will lift into SE Lower Michigan by 12Z this morning and will the continue thru the Eastern Great Lakes today and into New England tonight. This low will continue to provide synoptic enhancement to ongoing widespread snow along and north of the stationary front. Still expect an additional 2 to 4 inches within the current Winter Wx Advisory area thru the morning hours...with another 1 to 2 inches for areas north and west of the Advisory area. Will certainly keep all headlines in tact for now as this event continues to play out. Scattered northerly flow lake effect snow showers will then develop this afternoon as widespread synoptic snow comes to an end and low level winds shift to the north in the wake of the departing low center. Low level winds will then back to the west tonight ahead of our next approaching cold front. Only expect another inch or two for our snowbelt areas this afternoon and tonight...possibly locally higher for the Whitefish Point area. High temps this afternoon will only warm into the 20s...with overnight lows tonight in the single digits to teens. && .SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 236 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 ...Continued snow and cold... High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal for now. Watching accumulating lake effect potential. Synopsis/Forecast: Heading into the work week we'll have elongated very positively tilted troughing over the center of the nation, extending from an upper level low over Hudson Bay. A few shortwaves rotating through the main flow will re-enforce troughing across the Great Lake with a cold (but only slightly below normal) and semi- snowy pattern through the first half of the week. By Tuesday night heights start to slowly rise across the region. Forecast Details: Through Monday a weakening high pressure moves into Iowa while a clipper moves southeast through Hudson Bay. Northwest flow will dominate the pattern Monday for much of the area....with lake aggregate troughing making for more variable winds near the soo. Overlake instability will be great (delta-T's near or exceeding 20C, and rising through the afternoon/evening). But we'll be struggling with saturation as synoptic moisture exits stage right through the morning. This will leave us with sufficient (not great) moisture for northern lower by mid-day...but then drier air looks to increase a bit, with the typical inverted-V look to low level soundings. This may stunt LES shower intensity and coverage further through the afternoon into the evening. But with lake effect, where there is a will there is a way, and snow showers will probably linger into the overnight hours, especially closer to the lake Michigan shoreline with lighter boundary layer winds. Overall accumulations look meager thanks to inversion heights barely making it to 4 kft and meager moisture...looking at a inch or two through Monday night in the WNW-flow belts of northern lower. Easter Upper may be a difference story with better moisture through the day and night and much better inversion heights. Totals are still currently progged to be a couple inches...but there is concern for the SOO to get under a dominate Lake Superior band that sets up with convergence from the lake aggregate troughing...and some guidance is hinting at this. But how long it remains over the SOO (if at all) is in question, before wavering back north. Winds back more westerly overnight then southwesterly by Tuesday in response to the northern clipper creeping closer. This will shift the region of lake effect through the night into Tuesday, fanning out any additional accumulations. The bigger story early Tuesday will be how cold wind chills are in the early morning, even with light winds we'll have values near -10 for inland areas of northern lower and -20 or colder for the U.P. which is by far the coldest air of the season. The rest of the day remains cold with light lake effect along lake Michigan and into sections of western Mackinac county in the southwest flow regime. Highs won't get out of the teens, and remain some 5 to 10 degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 236 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal for now. Even with heights slowly rising across the region for the middle of the week we'll remain slightly below normal with the core of coldest 850mb air rotating to our north. Lake effect chances persist through the week, but with high uncertainty regarding locations and amounts given variable guidance and dependency on wind direction. There are some signals on the extreme forecast index tool, as well as most guidance that overnight lows could drop lower than currently advertised by the end of the week. A strong high pressure slides down through far southern Ontario, overnight lows Friday night into early Saturday could be quite cold...especially if we can clear out at all. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 653 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2023 The concern to night will be how the snow progresses into the forecast area, and affects the TAF Sites. At this point, with the Arctic front around M-32, PLN and CIU look like they remain VFr through about 18z/Sun when the lake effect snow starts to poke into the region. APN and TVC will have VFR to MVFR CIGS to start the night, before system moves into the region, and edges some IFR category CIGs into the sites. VSBYs will be VFR to MVFR Until around 05z, then snow will start to fall a bit more heavily with IFR categories likely until around 12z. Then the system moves out and the snow and low clouds leave. MBL looks similar, but about 2-3 hours earlier. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 Winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria along our Lake Huron nearshore areas from Presque Isle Light to Saginaw Bay thru today. Widespread snow will impact most of our nearshore areas along Lakes Michigan and Huron thru this morning as low pressure tracks thru SE Lower Michigan. Scattered lake effect snow showers will fall across our area thru much of this week as significantly colder air arrives across the Western Great Lakes region. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ024- 029-030-032>036-041-042. LH...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for LHZ348-349. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MLR SHORT TERM...STJ LONG TERM...STJ AVIATION...JSL MARINE...MLR