FXUS63 KAPX 192334 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 734 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 ...Showers and storms continue into this evening... High Impact Weather Potential...Severe storms are possible across Northern Lower Michigan into this evening...with the primary threat of damaging winds. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Low pressure center has reached Southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Associated warm front has lifted slightly further north into Central Lower Michigan...with the cold front extending southward thru Missouri into Eastern Texas. Yet another wave of convection associated with this system is moving thru our CWA attm. Reflectivity is higher within this area of precip...but thunder is isold at best due to lack of sufficient instability. Widespread showers...thick cloud cover and easterly winds north of the warm front are keeping temps generally in the 40s and 50s for the most part across our CWA...with the exception of our far SW CWA where temps have popped up into the 60s. Lack of sufficient instability has kept thunder at bay so far. Latest near term models continue to focus further south for better instability thru this evening...with only the far northern edge of the instability axis poking up into our southern CWA. MUCAPES will likely remain below 500 J/kg at best...and will be restricted to our far SE CWA. Will certainly keep a mention of thunder in the forecast...focusing mainly late afternoon/early evening for the best chance of thunder during peak heating and just as the surface low is moving thru Northern Lower Michigan. Cannot rule out an isold marginally severe storm with damaging wind the primary threat. However...will need to realize better instability for this to occur...which is becoming a less likely scenario given that this persistent thick cloud. Thunder threat should end by or shortly after 00Z this evening as the low begins to pull east of our area and CAA begins in its wake. Wrap-around moisture on the backside of this system will keep Northern Michigan in ample low level moisture/clouds as well as periodic light rain/drizzle overnight into Monday. Low temps will be into the 40s across our entire CWA. && .SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 ...Chilly Monday then turning warmer... High Impact Weather Potential...Areas of frost Monday night. Primary Forecast Concerns...The frost. Colder air advects in Monday behind the departing surface cold front. Scattered instability driven (lake effect) rain showers expected (mainly in the morning). Looking at model soundings, the melting layer appears to be just deep enough to prevent wet snow flakes from mixing in. However, I still wouldn't be totally shocked if there were a few across the higher terrain. It will be rather brisk with gusty northwest winds. Mostly cloudy skies should give way to gradual afternoon clearing from west to east. Forecast highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s...though much of the day should be spent in the 40s. Monday night and Tuesday...High pressure builds in from the northwest. This will lead to diminishing winds and mostly clear skies. Areas of frost are still expected. Warmer Tuesday with highs in the lower and mid 60s. Tuesday night and Wednesday...Perhaps a few warm advection driven showers Wednesday, otherwise partly cloudy and mild conditions expected. Lows in the lower and mid 40s. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 ...Above normal temperatures... High Impact Weather Potential: None expected. Extended models continue to be in general agreement that a long wave trough digs into the west coast with downstream ridging centered across the southeastern states. Northern Michigan still looks like it will be on the northern periphery of the ridge...likely leading to above normal temperatures. Will still have to be cognizant of possible convective complexes topping the ridge. Precipitation chances remain a tough call with shower chances Wednesday night and Thursday night through early Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 Impactful period of weather to continue across the taf locations through Monday morning. Cold front in the process of moving across northern Michigan, bringing a band of showers and lower cigs along with it. While rain departs quickly this evening, band of lower cigs (MVFR to IFR) expected to swing back across the region later tonight into Monday morning. This moisture will likely bring some more showers along with it, especially across KPLN. Cigs expected to improve as we head through later Monday morning, and especially during the afternoon. Winds are expected to become gusty out of the northwest late tonight through Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 Winds and waves will continue to periodically reach SCA criteria this afternoon...tonight and Monday as low pressure tracks through Northern Lower Michigan. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will also continue to impact our entire nearshore area thru this evening...and will then diminish to areas of light rain and drizzle overnight into Monday as the surface low departs our state. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345>349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322. && $$ NEAR TERM...MR SHORT TERM...AS LONG TERM...AS AVIATION...MB MARINE...MR