FXUS63 KDDC 042321 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 621 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are expected from mid-day Monday into the afternoon along and east of a line from WaKeeney to Dodge City. - The western limit of severe weather Monday depends on how early in the day storms develop. - A mainly dry weather pattern will develop Monday evening and persist for several days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A strong upper level trough along the West Coast early this afternoon will progress across the Rockies through Sunday. Ahead of this feature, a cool air mass will be in place across Kansas Sunday, with moist southerly flow returning in the afternoon. A weak disturbance embedded in the flow across the southern plains will result in some low to mid level cloud late tonight and into Sunday morning. A few sprinkles or light rain showers are possible, especially near the Oklahoma state line. Relatively high static stability should preclude significant amounts of precipitation across southwest Kansas. Expect lows tonight in the 40s and highs Sunday in the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 The aforementioned, strong upper level trough will eject across the central and northern plains Monday in negatively tilted fashion. The primary surface low will develop across the northern high plains, with a trailing, dry cold front sweeping across western Kansas Monday afternoon. A dry line will exist southward from about the 37th parallel Monday afternoon and the dry cold front(modified by downslope) will rapidly overtake the dryline during the day. Given the negative tilt to the upper level trough, strong mid level cooling around 700mb will take place, leading to a weakening in the capping inversion. While the mid levels will be cooling, the lowest levels will be warming, leading to a steepening of low to mid level lapse rates. The capping inversion over the moist layer will likely have eroded sufficiently for surface based storm initiation as early as noon to 1 PM CDT (17-18 UTC) along a line from WaKeeney to Dodge City. Given the mid level cooling, there is an accompanying mid level backing of the wind between 700 and 500mb, which could lead to a weakness in the hodographs and a lessening of the tornado threat. However, the 0-1 km shear will be quite favorable for rotating storms between 18-21z(1 to 4 pm) before storms move east of Hays and Pratt. Very large hail and damaging winds will likely accompany these storms. The Storm Prediction Center indicates a coverage of 30% combined severe weather risk, including locations from Hays to Coldwater and points east. The latest outlook includes a 10% probability of "Significant" severe weather. Significant severe weather is defined as 75+ mph damaging wind gusts, 2" or larger hail, and/or significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage potential). After Monday, a tranquil weather pattern will develop across the central high plains for several days as upper level troughing shifts from the northern plains into the Midwest. Tuesday will still be a mild day, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s given continued downslope warming. In the absence of significant low level moisture, expect strong diurnal temperature ranges, with highs falling into the lower to mid 70s and lows falling into the 40s by mid-week. Lows could even fall into the high 30s across west central Kansas by late week given the dry air and light winds. However, freezing temperatures are unlikely. Probabilistically, the ECMWF and CMCE ensemble means only show 10-20% probabilities of lows less than 40 across extreme western Kansas, with near 0% chances of 32 degrees or less. However, experience tells us that lows typically get colder near the Colorado state line in these regimes than the various model guidances suggest. Therefore, some readings less than 40 seem more likely to this forecaster at locations such as Syracuse, which is located in a valley. The ECMWF and CMCE ensemble means both indicate an upper level trough forming over the desert southwest next weekend, with continued upper level troughing over the eastern USA. This is a relatively cool and stable pattern. However, increasing mid level moisture along with a mid level thermal gradient could result in areas of light rain by Saturday or Sunday. Both of the ensemble means show only 20-40% chances of rainfall .10" or greater. Thus, the chances for significant rainfall are very low. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A warm front will lift to the north through the night switching the winds to the southeast and bring in lower level moisture which will cause mid to low level clouds to form. Cloud ceilings should start to fall between 11-14Z for LBL, DDC, and GCK to MVFR flight category. Winds will increase by 15Z and with the mixing we should see the clouds start to break and celiings increase back to VFR flight category. Winds in the afternoon will be sustained around 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Counties in far western Kansas have some greenup; but there is still some risk for wildfires on critical fire weather days. Gusty west winds and low humidity will lead to critical fire weather conditions over far western Kansas Monday afternoon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Finch LONG TERM...Finch AVIATION...Tatro FIRE WEATHER...Finch