FXUS63 KDLH 290955 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 355 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 355 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Summary: Cold temperatures are expected to persist through the forecast period with limited chances for snow. High pressure was in control across the Northland early this morning with skies ranging from mainly clear to partly cloudy. High clouds were seen moving across the southern portion of the region in association with an area of low pressure across Illinois. Some light radar returns were observed underneath these clouds, but no reports of snow were seen with most likely evaporating before reaching the ground. Temperatures across northern portions of Koochiching and St. Louis counties dropped below forecast prior to midnight, but with the arrival of some thin high clouds, temperatures have warmed slightly. Some additional cooling may occur through about 9AM before slowly warming into the single digits above and below zero for today. Some light flurries will be possible along and north of the Iron Range this afternoon underneath some cloud cover similar to what was observed over western Ontario yesterday. Some light lake-effect snow will be possible along the South Shore today into Monday, but winds look to be more westerly than previously forecast. This will keep most of the snow along the Bayfield Peninsula as opposed to the Iron County snowbelt. Accumulations will be minimal from this lake-effect snowfall despite the large delta-T in place and a relatively ice free Lake Superior. The limiting factor is the very cold air in place which can't hold much moisture at all. Lows tonight will be in the teens and 20s below zero and new wind chill headlines will be needed once the current ones expire. With overnight windchills expected to be in the 20s and 20s below zero for much of the week, more headlines are possible each night. Otherwise, high temperatures will be in the teens and single digits above zero starting Tuesday before warming into the teens and 20s above zero by the weekend. Overnight lows will remain below zero for most of the week with more areas remaining above zero Saturday morning. Nearly zonal flow aloft will be in place for much of the forecast period with the main storm track remaining to our south. A weak shortwave will pass through Wednesday into Wednesday night and may bring some light snow, but only minimal accumulations are currently expected. Another chance for snow will be seen heading into the weekend outside of some light South Shore lake-effect. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1151 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 VFR conditions currently in place are expected to prevail through much of the period with cold high pressure in place. Some MVFR conditions will be possible at times with clouds expected to develop across northern Minnesota during the day Sunday. This may lead to some very light snow showers at INL and perhaps HIB, but have kept out of HIB for now. Some lower ceilings may be possible at HIB at times from anthropogenic sources. && .MARINE... Issued at 355 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Drainage winds along the North Shore early this morning have resulted in gusts to around 30 knots in the Grand Marais area. Due to this, a short Small Craft Advisory has been issued through mid-morning for Silver Bay to Grand Portage. Winds will slowly turn westerly through the day at 10 to 20 knots with a few gusts to around 22 knots across the Outer Apostle Islands. These highest gusts only look possible for an hour or two, so have opted not to issue another short advisory at this time. Winds will become northwesterly again tonight and become more westerly once again during the day Monday. Speeds will be a bit higher on Monday at 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots along the Bayfield Peninsula and Outer Apostle Islands. These winds will also generate waves of 3 to 6 feet in these areas as well. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for Monday and Monday night and perhaps longer as the breezy winds continue into Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 0 -17 -1 -12 / 0 0 0 0 INL -4 -21 -3 -11 / 10 10 0 0 BRD 0 -19 -1 -11 / 0 0 0 0 HYR 3 -16 0 -12 / 0 0 0 0 ASX 4 -12 1 -7 / 20 20 0 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for WIZ001-006- 007. MN...Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033. Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for MNZ034>038. LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ140>142. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJH AVIATION...BJH MARINE...BJH