FXUS63 KDLH 262039 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 339 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019 A weak cool front was draped from west to east across the Northland this afternoon and is forecast to progress southward across the remainder of the forecast area this evening. Winds near Lake Superior will turn on-shore behind the front and will become gusty for a time into this evening. Scattered rain showers over far northern Minnesota will continue a gradual easterly trajectory and a wave of showers over northwest Minnesota will lift into the Brainerd Lakes by 7 PM. The change of showers continues overnight with the focus generally over northern Minnesota, well north of the surface front. Convergence aloft and an approaching shortwave and lobe of vorticity will enhance lift over that area after 06Z. Memorial Day is shaping up cloudy, cool, and breezy with chances of rain showers. Northeast winds off Lake Superior will bring lake-cooled air well inland through the I-35 corridor toward Lake Mille Lacs and the Aitkin area. In northwest Wisconsin the colder air will affect areas as far south as Danbury, Minong, and Hayward. Highs will reach the upper 40s to mid 50s in these areas. Temps will reach near 60 degrees farther south and a pocket of upper 50s to low 60s is forecast north of a line from Cass Lake to Bigfork to Kabetogama in north-central Minnesota. The rain chances will be focused across northern Minnesota with the passing shortwave, and over southern zones as a surface low moves across southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin. Surface high pressure returns Monday night and the rain chances diminish. Temperatures will dip into the middle 30s in the Arrowhead to the low 40s south. A few spots in northern Minnesota may see areas of frost, especially if skies clear faster than currently indicated. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019 The long term forecast is not quiet, but it's also not too busy either. The most headline worthy event is the potential for frost on Tuesday morning across the MN Arrowhead. A fairly large system crosses south of the forecast area on Wednesday, but the Northland is largely left high and dry - the caveat being if the system drifted quite a bit north of where it is currently progged to track. The significant QPF gradient should be down near Eau Claire. A weak trough crosses late in the week for a small threat for thunderstorms. Location and timing still quite uncertain at this time on this feature as it's not very pronounced. Temperatures throughout the week will be quite normal for this time of the year with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019 VFR, but could see MVFR with frontal passage that will slide down from the northeast today. With this passage expect a sudden increase in the wind speeds and a change in direction. This is expected to happen around 2230Z at KDLH. Wind impacts will be less at the other TAF sites. MVFR possible tomorrow morning as a large system slides northward through Wisconsin though northwestern terminals may remain VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019 A cold front will cause a sudden shift and increase in winds this afternoon. Small craft should seek harbor before this feature arrives. Winds will remain elevated Monday as a low pressure system tracks across southern Wisconsin. Weak high pressure builds Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 41 49 39 62 / 20 50 20 10 INL 40 60 36 70 / 40 20 0 0 BRD 47 58 41 67 / 30 60 20 10 HYR 46 60 42 67 / 10 70 40 10 ASX 42 52 39 61 / 20 50 40 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 9 PM CDT Monday for LSZ143-146- 148. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT Monday for LSZ144-145. && $$ SHORT TERM...Huyck LONG TERM...Wolfe AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...Wolfe