FXUS63 KFGF 231158 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 658 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The probability for widespread hazardous weather through Monday is low (less than 10%). - Watching dew points and relative humidity values for potential near critical fire weather conditions Wednesday. - Increased rain chances Friday into Saturday with chance for isolated thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 653 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 500 smb low is near Park Rapids moving south-southeast. Spin in clouds noted and showers are to the west and north of the upper low from Lake of the Woods to east of Fargo. Last of the spotty showers are in far SE Manitoba and far northeast ND moving south. So idea of scattered showers in MN fcst area and the RRV is good with trends indicating them moving out of our forecast area 16-17z or so. Cloud cover with this is far less extensive than thought with plenty of clearing holes in cloud cover in E ND/RRV with thicker cloud cover confined to around the upper low center. Overall trends of the fcst are good. We are seeing the NNW winds increase as anticipated within the RRV and E ND with gusts to 25 kts as pressure rises move into the valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 at 08z 500 mb low is located near Grand Forks with spin on radar noted with showers over the Grand Forks area. This will continue to move east-southeast thru the early morning hours with lingering showers spreading more into Minnesota and then exiting the forecast area by 16z. The question arises is winds this morning. As upper level low moves away there is a period of NNW winds that could gust to 35 kts within the Red River valley with mixed layer up to around 925 mb early this morning rise to 870 mb by 17z. By then the winds aloft do diminish. Also in question is sky cover/types of clouds. Havent seen low clouds form yet but never discount what happens by 12z. So going with idea of mostly cloudy this morning most areas then clearing working southeast thru the aftn. Highs today with late day sun reaching the low-mid 50s. HRRR did well with sfc temps on Monday and looks good today. They also are very near NBM 4.1 temps used in the fcst. Winds diminish overnight as high pressure ridge moves, with center of high moving southeast thru far NW Ontario. Winds will be northeast tonight then turn south-southeast on Wednesday as high moves farther east. Surface gradient initially isnt that tight so not expecting a big jump in wind speeds Wednedsday. Dry airmass in place due to high pressure to our north/east, though driest of dew pts more favored over NE MN. Warming Wednesday with plenty of sun, with RH values dropping in to the mid 20s across the area. Winds to be near 10 kts. So borderline near critical fire weather day Wednesday based on RH values. A warm Thursday as south winds ramp up into the 20-30 mph range with higher gusts. Highs 60s to mid 70s. Thereafter an unsettled pattern starts as several 500 mb short waves and surface lows will move northeast from the central Rockies toward Minnesota. First wave brings chances for rain into the area Thursday overnight but the highest chances (60-80 percent from northwest to southeast across the area) are Friday afternoon thru Saturday morning. WPC rain amounts show 0.75 average Baudette to Grand Forks to Jamestown and areas southeast. NBM 4.1 indicates similar amounts with probs for more than 0.50 inch at 60-80 percent in the same area. Instability looks weak as surface low is more southeast MN and instability focused south of there Friday. But embedded t-storm is possible so will maintain some mention Friday. Next wave arrrives Sun aftn-Monday but trends are weaker and a bit farther southeast with this system. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 653 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 The widespread MVFR cloud deck that the short term models had advertised is not happening. There is some MVFR ceilings since 10z that formed right near the upper low center including Bemidji, Detroit Lakes, Fosston, Park Rapids but otherwise into the RRV cloud ceilings are at or above 4000 ft agl. Gusty NNW winds 25-30 kts esp in the RRV this morning diminishing slowly this aftn but no noticeable decrease probably not til closer to 22/00z. Clear with light wind tonight. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Riddle