FXUS63 KGID 121942
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
Issued by National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
242 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

The primary forecast foci are on another day of elevated fire
danger Tuesday, a late week storm system, and periods of sub-
freezing temperatures.

The remainder of today through the day on Thursday are shaping up
to be quiet with mostly sunny/clear skies outside of some shallow
mid-level periodic cloud cover. Will maintain weak cold or neutral
temperature advection through the period although with a modest
downslope component. Expect 20-25 mph wind gusts to continue until
right around sunset when decoupling will kill gusts and turn to
intermittent breezes overnight. However by 8-9 AM, mixing will
bring a return of similar wind gusts for tomorrow. All told,
Tuesday looks an awful lot like today, including the far western
zones dropping into low 20s RH with the 20+ mph gusts. Temps in
the low 50s and some modest greenup preclude too much concern for
red flag-type conditions, but elevated fire danger does seem
likely. 

As we get into the middle to later parts of the week, a closed low
pressure will take shape over northern Nevada and make a slow-
but-sure eastward journey. Ensemble model guidance is in strong
agreement that this storm system will bring a period of moisture
advection and lift across the local forecast area, resulting in a
prolonged period of cloud cover and light to moderate 
precipitation focused from early Thursday into late Friday. The
system is likely to gradually weaken during this time but should
persist long enough for especially western parts of the area to 
receive up to an inch of liquid equivalent from this storm. Right 
now a majority of guidance suggests this will fall mainly as 
liquid, however the rainy guidance is very cold with precip type 
dependent upon the lower 2000 feet of the troposphere and there is
a non-negligible number of (mainly EPS) ensemble members noting 
potential for minor snow accumulation in western parts of the 
forecast area. So this will be a time frame worth monitoring, 
especially during the Thursday night and Friday morning hours and 
if any heavier bands of precip can develop which might promote 
larger flakes, cooler temps, and a better chance of snow reaching 
the ground.

Aside from these items of interest for the coming week, most highs
will be in the 50s (perhaps not Thurs/Fri) and most lows in the
30s. There does seem to be a good chance for some lows in the 20s
especially north of the Platte River tonight, Wed morning, and
Thurs AM. Current indications are that the growing season is not
far enough along to warrant frost/freeze products in these areas
but anyone with sensitive vegetation interests will want to keep
an eye on the forecasts for the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

VFR conditions are highly likely at TAF sites through tomorrow.
Expect wind gusts 20-25 kt through sunset and again after 14Z
Tuesday. Winds at 2k feet AGL will be near 30 kts overnight, but
do not expect to meet LLWS criteria.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch OAX
AVIATION...Barjenbruch OAX