FXUS63 KGLD 102041 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 241 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for this weekend. Severe weather over the weekend is not expected at this time. - Severe weather potential may return by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 141 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 A 500 mb low pressure system is still stalled out over the Great Basin. This afternoon and into the evening, this will send out a weak shortwaves across the Great Plains, creating enough forcing to start some light precipitation, but not enough for anything organized or severe. Until about 0-3Z this evening, light showers will be over eastern Colorado, mostly just creating virga as there is a moderately pronounced dry layer near and above the surface. Some light rain accumulation is not entirely out of the question for these locations, but anything more than a hundredth or two is unexpected. These light showers could spill over into far western Kansas, but confidence of this occurring is less than 20%. Saturday afternoon and into the overnight hours look to be a different story as the low pressure system starts moving to the east. This will provide enough forcing for some slightly more organized precipitation, including a few thunderstorms. The threat for severe weather is low, but not 0. MUCAPE looks to be limited to around 300-800 J/KG and effective shear is about 15-20 kts or less. This could lead to some pop-up storms that are quickly lived. Before about 0Z Sunday, any storm that rapidly grows in an area of higher CAPE could burst out, so we will need to keep an eye out for strong winds with decaying storms tomorrow. Sunday afternoon looks to be the "best" chance in the short-term for some impactful precipitation and severe storms, although no parameters look very impressive. A weak 850 mb lee low is expected to form in the very early morning hours Sunday and move across the CWA in the mid-day. Supplied with a 20-35 kts LLJ, we will have plenty of moisture to work with, which does cause some concern for flooding potential. However, due to little rainfall over the previous week and soundings show upshear speeds around 20-25 kts (a little fast for flooding), there is only about 5-10% confidence flooding would occur. PWATS are near 1 inch and there is an fairly elevated freezing level which adds to the confidence, but does not make it certain. CAPE looks to be around 1,000-1,500 J/kg with EBWD shear around 25-30 kts, making low-end severe storms possible (~5% chance). Saturday looks to warm into the upper 60s and 70s, however cloud cover could lower these temperatures 3-5 degrees if the clouds become more widespread and move farther east early. Sunday will be cooler with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, due to the low pressure system moving a cold front across the area. Tonight will cool into the 40s; some locations in eastern Colorado could see upper 30s if the clouds clear out early and the winds become calm. Tomorrow night will be warmer as the LLJ will be moving warm, moist air into the region. The western CWA will remain in the mid 40s but the eastern CWA looks to stay in the mid 50s. Sunday night will be slightly cooler behind the cold front, likely down into the 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 240 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 The extended forecast begins with an upper trough over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Low pressure will move across the region, bringing a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms to the region. Right now, the highest chances (30-50%) will be for areas along and southeast of a line from McCook, Nebraska to Goodland, Kansas. Expected temperatures will be in the low to mid-70s for highs and the low to mid-40s for lows. Tuesday through the end of the forecast, there will be a shift in the pattern. Weak ridging followed by westerly flow will bring warmer air into the Tri-State area. The morning is expected to be dry, with at least a 10-30% chance of a few showers and storms in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday afternoon will be unseasonably warm, with many areas reaching the low 80s. Normal highs are in the low 70s for this time of the year. Overnight lows will range from the mid-40s in eastern Colorado to the low 50s in the eastern part of the CWA. Mid-to-late week, a disturbance will move into the region. This will bring temperatures back to around normal, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows will be in the low to mid-40s. There will be a chance of some precipitation during this timeframe, although timing and location is uncertain at this point in time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1049 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK. Some CU between 3,500-9,500 ft AGL are moving into the region, but are not expected to impact flight categories. Winds will remain north-northwesterly during the day and this evening around 3Z, become lighter and slowly shift to be from the south. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Wekesser AVIATION...CA