FXUS63 KIWX 260721
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
321 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

A complex of showers and thunderstorms across central and northern
illinois will track eastward and overspread the area overnight.
The heaviest activity should remain generally along and south of
the Route 30 corridor. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible and
a few storms may produce wind gusts in excess of 40 mph.
Additional chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist
Sunday as another disturbance interacts with a cool front, and
locally heavy rainfall will be possible once again south of Route
30. Highs Sunday will only rise into the 70s as opposed to 
today's 80s as a result of the front being across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

Convection has been rapidly expanding across SW parts of the area
in association with MCV from complex moving across central 
Illinois into west central Indiana. Have adjusted pops to account 
for faster arrival and expanded northward somewhat to account for 
additional development over the area and also looking upstream 
back to Iowa with eastward propagation expected. Monitoring for 
marginal severe threat as some wind cores have been noted. Expect 
all this precip to work across mainly the southern half of the 
area through 12 to 15Z before possibly some lull in activity until
the main cold front and next wave catch up and help increase 
coverage once again. Only minor changes to pops into this 
afternoon with showers and thunderstorms likely along and ahead of
the front. SWODY1 has removed any severe mention given that the 
atmosphere should be fairly worked over to limit severe potential.
Something that will need to be monitored. 

Precip chances will end across the southeast this evening with drier 
conditions arriving overnight. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

Period will start dry with pesky front residing south of the 
forecast area. This won't last long as models generally agree on 
next wave moves towards the region, nudging the warm front back 
north with a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon
into Monday night. Models then diverge how far north the front 
makes it with GFS/ECWMF lingering it near the IN/MI state line, 
Canadian/NAM well into MI. Scenarios range from convection staying
well north of the area or varying chances for showers and storms 
as the frontal boundary modulates north and south. Will leave slgt
chc/low end chc pops in for now with focus on Tues night into 
Weds when the southwestern states upper low finally ejects towards
the western Great Lakes by 00Z Thurs. All signals are there for 
high chc to likely pops in the Tues ngt to Weds period as the 
trough approaches and eventually becomes absorbed in Hudson Bay 
low that will sink south. Previous hope for a dry period to wrap 
up the forecast may be dashed with all medium range models now 
suggesting front will stall out over the southern Great Lakes/N 
Ohio Valley with precip chances into at least Thursday. Not worth 
making any changes to later periods as setup is bound to change. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1221 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

The previous forecast appears to be largely on track and no
substantial changes anticipated for the 06Z TAFs. Cold frontal 
boundary sinking southeast from far southern Iowa into northern 
Illinois will continue to be focal point for additional shower 
and storm development through the morning. Convective complex 
across central Illinois should take more of a due eastward 
propagation this morning, with perhaps some slight east-southeast 
preference at times. This should keep heavier showers and 
thunderstorms south of KFWA, but it still appears as though 
numerous showers and perhaps some scattered thunder will be 
possible at KFWA in the 10Z to 14Z time period as a westerly low 
level jet brings increasing elevated moisture eastward. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as a 
stronger short wave from the Plains interacts with this frontal 
boundary. Precip chances at KSBN somewhat more questionable and 
will continue to lean heavily toward VCSH mention until greater 
confidence can be attained. Mainly VFR conditions this period 
outside of any brief lower conditions associated with heavier 
showers and thunderstorms. Chances of showers and storms should 
diminish after 00Z Sunday evening.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Marsili/Roller 
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...Marsili


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