FXUS63 KIWX 302313 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 613 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 311 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 Scattered lake effect snow persists tonight and lingers into Tuesday accumulating up to around an inch mainly in Lake MI adjacent counties. A few slick spots may be possible where accumulations occur. Otherwise, cold temperatures take over between tonight and Wednesday with single digits and teens for lows and teens and twenties for highs. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 311 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 The slow moving baroclinic zone continues to slide southeast away from the area and this will take the synoptic precipitation away as we move more into the work week, especially as surface high pressure moves in. On the northern side of the high pressure system, a shear out area of vorticity located within a broad trough moves across the southern portion of Lake Mi between tonight and much of Tuesday. Columnar moisture is trending drier through the aforementioned period, but wouldn't be surprised to continue to see some sputters and starts from it as low level wind convergence lingers into at least Tuesday morning and favorable theta-e lapse rates exist. Lake induced inversions rise up to around 850 mb or just above 4 kft with some dry air above it. As a result, will continue to carry PoPs in the lake adjacent counties. Could see a few tenths of accumulation, but this should just trend towards nuisance/festive snow flurries by Tuesday midday. The last shortwave moves through Tuesday evening/night and trajectories turn more southerly by that point so should be able to see some of the lake effect cloud cover shift northward as well. The main story, though, will be the cold single digit and teens temperatures nudging in by Tuesday morning, especially west of US-31 and into our northeast. While wind gusts are expected to stay in the tens of knots Tuesday, wind chills will be cold with single digits and teens, but with a few negative readings also west of US-31. Highs struggle to reach very far into the 20s Tuesday. At least we have a chance to see the sun by day's end Tuesday. && .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 311 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 With the high pressure center overhead Wednesday, skies are expected to have limited cloud cover allowing for a mostly sunny day. Temperatures are also expected to be a little higher as low level temperatures return to a similar value as they have today with slight warm advection noted achieving 20s for highs. Then, a cold front pushes through later Thursday in conjunction with a developing low pressure system moving eastward from the Northern Great Lakes towards northern parts of the Northeast. Expect this to be a dry FROPA, though clouds will likely increase with its passage. Highs Thursday reach back to seasonable at either side of 30 degrees, but temperatures will fall back to the teens and single digits for lows Thursday night and Friday night. Will allow for a resurgence of lake effect snow Thursday night through Friday, however, the quick moving trough should limit its overall extent. Pacific air floods the United States again as the western CONUS ridge gives way to a diving trough and this allows for a return of warmer temperatures this weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 610 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 Higher end MVFR ceilings to persist with moisture trapped beneath large scale subsidence inversion. Minor lake effect lingers into midday Tuesday at KSBN as weakly cyclonic flow and strong inversion limits lake induced mixed layer depth, despite moderate thermal instability/near 20C delta t. Some breaks possible Tuesday afternoon as low level ridging continues to build into southern portion of Upper Great Lakes. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Roller SHORT TERM...Roller LONG TERM...Roller AVIATION...Murphy Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana