FXUS63 KMKX 290956
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
356 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 456 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023)

Today and Tonight:

The system snowfall is starting to come to an end from west to
east this morning for southern Wisconsin. As the mid level
frontogenesis and upper level support begins to weaken, the
snowfall will become much lighter. Snowfall for much of south
central Wisconsin should come to an end prior to day break. 

For the lakeshore counties, there continues to be a possibility 
for lake effect snow showers to develop and move inland early this
morning. Delta T's between the lake and 850mb remains decent for 
snowfall and northeasterly winds will continue for the next few 
hours. Winds will begin to shift and turn more northerly later
this morning which will push the lake effect snow band off shore.
Any lake effect snowfall from this band are expected to be light,
with little additional accumulations late this morning into the
afternoon. This is in part due to the shifting winds and to the
mid level moisture decreasing. When looking at sounding for the
lakeshore counties later this morning, dry air will begin to work
in around the -10C isotherm, which is an important layer for lake
effect snowfall. Once we loose some of that moisture and lift 
around -10C, dendrites will become very small and snowfall will 
become light. What this means overall is that later this morning 
and into the afternoon, flurries will continue to be possible 
across our lakeshore counties. Winds will eventually shift to 
northwesterly and the flurries will come to an end. 

Tonight into Monday, high pressure will begin to build in from 
the Northern Plains (Dakotas and Nebraska). CAA will kick in as 
the high pressure moves in bringing colder temperatures to the 
state. High temperatures for Monday are expected to be in the 
single digits. 

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 456 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023)

Monday night through Saturday:

An arctic airmass will reside over S WI early in the week. Polar 
high pressure will pass south of WI for Mon nt-Tue. A very cold 
night is expected as temps fall to 10 below zero well inland,
while wind chills around 20 below zero will be possible north and
west of the MKE metro area, with just a light breeze expected.

Lgt swly winds will then develop later on Tue into Wed as the 
high moves away. Temps will warm back into the 20s on Wed and Thu,
but another cold front will arrive on Thu with another drop in 
temperatures. A sfc ridge will pass Fri nt followed by shortwave 
ridging aloft and sly sfc winds and warm advection for Sat.  

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 456 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023)

Snowfall has gradually begun to come to an end from west to east 
this morning. There will be some light lake effect snowfall that
will set up this morning, which will bring some flurries to the
lakeshore terminals. Not expecting much in the way of additional
accumulations for the lake effect snowfall as drier air will be
moving in late this morning and the northeast winds will gradually
become northerly pushing this LES offshore. Winds will continue to
shift to northwesterly by this evening. Northwest winds are 
expected tonight and Monday. 

VFR to IFR ceilings this morning are expected to continue for the
next few hours. The higher VFR ceilings this morning over western
Wisconsin will gradually move eastward bringing improving
conditions to much of the area. The lower ceilings and visibilites
this morning are generally across eastern Wisconsin where there is
ongoing snowfall and some blowing/drifting. These conditions are
expected to improve as the snow ends. High pressure will be moving
into the state tonight into Monday causing winds to settle and 
ceilings to continue to improve. 

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 456 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023)

Gusty northeast to northerly winds will continue this morning as
low pressure moves northeast out of the southern Great Lakes
Region and into the New England states. Gusts up to 25 knots are 
expected through midday today. The gusty northerly winds are will
become northwesterly tonight and will remain breezy into Monday. 

A clipper system will slide across Lake Superior tonight into 
Monday ahead of a high pressure system, which will usher in colder
air. Moderate freezing spray is expected this morning through 
Monday. As high pressure builds in Monday, the northwest winds are
expected to relax.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning...WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 6 AM 
     Sunday.

     Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ052 until 6 AM Sunday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM 
     Sunday.

&&

$$

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