FXUS63 KMKX 290956 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 356 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 .SHORT TERM... (Issued 456 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023) Today and Tonight: The system snowfall is starting to come to an end from west to east this morning for southern Wisconsin. As the mid level frontogenesis and upper level support begins to weaken, the snowfall will become much lighter. Snowfall for much of south central Wisconsin should come to an end prior to day break. For the lakeshore counties, there continues to be a possibility for lake effect snow showers to develop and move inland early this morning. Delta T's between the lake and 850mb remains decent for snowfall and northeasterly winds will continue for the next few hours. Winds will begin to shift and turn more northerly later this morning which will push the lake effect snow band off shore. Any lake effect snowfall from this band are expected to be light, with little additional accumulations late this morning into the afternoon. This is in part due to the shifting winds and to the mid level moisture decreasing. When looking at sounding for the lakeshore counties later this morning, dry air will begin to work in around the -10C isotherm, which is an important layer for lake effect snowfall. Once we loose some of that moisture and lift around -10C, dendrites will become very small and snowfall will become light. What this means overall is that later this morning and into the afternoon, flurries will continue to be possible across our lakeshore counties. Winds will eventually shift to northwesterly and the flurries will come to an end. Tonight into Monday, high pressure will begin to build in from the Northern Plains (Dakotas and Nebraska). CAA will kick in as the high pressure moves in bringing colder temperatures to the state. High temperatures for Monday are expected to be in the single digits. Patterson && .LONG TERM... (Issued 456 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023) Monday night through Saturday: An arctic airmass will reside over S WI early in the week. Polar high pressure will pass south of WI for Mon nt-Tue. A very cold night is expected as temps fall to 10 below zero well inland, while wind chills around 20 below zero will be possible north and west of the MKE metro area, with just a light breeze expected. Lgt swly winds will then develop later on Tue into Wed as the high moves away. Temps will warm back into the 20s on Wed and Thu, but another cold front will arrive on Thu with another drop in temperatures. A sfc ridge will pass Fri nt followed by shortwave ridging aloft and sly sfc winds and warm advection for Sat. Gehring && .AVIATION... (Issued 456 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023) Snowfall has gradually begun to come to an end from west to east this morning. There will be some light lake effect snowfall that will set up this morning, which will bring some flurries to the lakeshore terminals. Not expecting much in the way of additional accumulations for the lake effect snowfall as drier air will be moving in late this morning and the northeast winds will gradually become northerly pushing this LES offshore. Winds will continue to shift to northwesterly by this evening. Northwest winds are expected tonight and Monday. VFR to IFR ceilings this morning are expected to continue for the next few hours. The higher VFR ceilings this morning over western Wisconsin will gradually move eastward bringing improving conditions to much of the area. The lower ceilings and visibilites this morning are generally across eastern Wisconsin where there is ongoing snowfall and some blowing/drifting. These conditions are expected to improve as the snow ends. High pressure will be moving into the state tonight into Monday causing winds to settle and ceilings to continue to improve. Patterson && .MARINE... (Issued 456 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023) Gusty northeast to northerly winds will continue this morning as low pressure moves northeast out of the southern Great Lakes Region and into the New England states. Gusts up to 25 knots are expected through midday today. The gusty northerly winds are will become northwesterly tonight and will remain breezy into Monday. A clipper system will slide across Lake Superior tonight into Monday ahead of a high pressure system, which will usher in colder air. Moderate freezing spray is expected this morning through Monday. As high pressure builds in Monday, the northwest winds are expected to relax. Patterson && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Storm Warning...WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 6 AM Sunday. Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ052 until 6 AM Sunday. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM Sunday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee