FXUS63 KMPX 191759
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1259 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for isolated-scattered snow showers this afternoon. No
  accumulation expected.

- Temperatures drop to near/below freezing again tonight.

- Quiet weather through the weekend, with the next rain bearing
  system arriving early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin has started to dance along 
the metaphorical line of freezing temps as the mid-level clouds 
continue to scatter out across the area. Any susceptible vegetation 
will be at risk again tonight with temperatures expected to be 1-3 
degrees cooler than what we see this morning.

In collaboration with neighboring offices, a widespread mention of 
isolated-scattered snow showers has been introduced for this 
afternoon. Model soundings show a cloud layer developing within the 
DGZ where near dry adiabatic lapse rates will be present. There will 
also be a deep enough cold layer to keep any falling precip 
primarily as snow. This combination of forcing and mid-level 
moisture could be enough to result in the light snow showers. The 
HRRR has been one of the more aggressive models for this trend. The 
main limiting factor will be the pocket of dry air below the cloudy 
layer that any precipitation will need to overcome. Thus, the other 
possible outcome would be widespread virga, especially the further 
south you travel. Regardless of whether you see more snow or virga, 
no significant accumulation is expected. 

Surface high pressure will keep things relatively quiet through 
Monday morning, with below average temperatures, breezy conditions, 
and mostly clear skies expected.

Our next upper-level disturbance will shoot southeast from Canada 
Monday night into Tuesday. The system will look to occlude and spin 
across the Upper Midwest, resulting in a prolonged period of 
cloudy/rainy conditions. The heaviest rain will most likely fall 
during the initial passage of the system, but QPF looks generally 
light overall with only a few tenths expected at most. There is 
potential for thunder to mix in, especially with the initial 
passage, however the ingredients for anything convective are 
relatively underwhelming at the moment. 

Following this system, highs will trend into the 60s as ridging 
builds in from the west. The CFSv2 accumulated supercell composite 
parameter also hints a more active period may be setting up for the 
central CONUS towards the end of April.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Low BKN/OVC VFR with a chance of MVFR cigs and vsby this 
afternoon. Scattered convective showers continue to make their way 
across Minnesota earlier this morning and will continue into this 
afternoon. Only minor adjustments have been made on TEMPO grouping 
to reflect -SHSN as forecast soundings still looks to hang onto all 
sites seen some form of either graupel or rain before dissipating 
this evening. WNW Winds will remain blustery with except for a few 
hours tonight before returning once again tomorrow. 

KMSP...Scattered convective snow showers looking most likely over 
KMSP between 22z and 02z this evening. No snow accumulation is 
expected. Winds will remain west northwesterly and breezy this 
afternoon before decreasing slightly after 19z tomorrow. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15kts.
MON...Chc MVFR/-SHRA in aftn. Wind S 10-15kts.
TUE...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind N 10-15g25kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...Dunleavy