FXUS63 KMQT 310001 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 701 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon and evening) Issued at 102 PM EST MON JAN 30 2023 For those outside of the western and west-northwestern wind lake effect snow belts, its been a mostly sunny day so far. The ample sunshine didn't do much to warm the region though from its cold start, and the west has struggled to climb above zero while the east has climbed into the low teens. The snow belts though, have seen persistent lake effect snow showers and cloud cover. These showers in the west are easiest to pick out in GOES satellite imagery and extend from the Porkies northward. The DLH radar shows a dominate band emanating out of the DLH harbor that's streaming across the Apostles and into northern Ontonagon County. With the added terrain influence, areas from Mass City northward toward South Range are likely seeing moderate to heavy snow. North of there, KCMX has reported visibilities of 1/2 or 1/4 mile for most of the day, indicating moderate or heavy snow showers or blowing snow. Webcams going up the Spine into Copper Harbor all show periodic snow showers and areas of low visibilities. CAMS more or less show these showers continuing through the afternoon and into the evening hours before southeasterly flow beings to push things northward. Opted to extend the Winter Weather Advisory for northern Houghton and Keweenaw counties through 6z which lines up with CAM consensus for shower activity moving into Lake Superior. MQT radar has been able to see a good bit of the dominate snow band stretching across Lake Superior that's been dancing southeastward down into eastern Alger and northern Luce counties. Southwesterly flow should work to improve conditions this afternoon and evening, but areas near Grand Marais and north of Pine Stump Junction should continue to expect persistent snow shower activity until this happens. Reissued a Special Weather Statement for Alger for these hazardous conditions and opted to let the going Winter Weather Advisory for Luce to play out for now. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 344 PM EST MON JAN 30 2023 Expect very cold temps tonight over the interior areas as clear skies remain over all but the Keweenaw and near Whitefish Bay, where some LES looks to continue until the pre-dawn hours Tuesday morning. With ensemble guidance hinting at temps in at least the 10th percentile to climatology, snow cover remaining across most of the area, and clear skies, decided to go with the NBM10th percentile lows tonight for all but the Keweenaw and near Whitefish Point; thinking that it is within the realm of possibility for most of the area to have lows in the negative teens, with some spots in the interior west possibly getting into the low negative 20s. Therefore, a Wind Chill Advisory has been issued for Gogebic, Ontonagon, Iron, southern Houghton, Marquette, Dickinson, northern Schoolcraft, and Luce counties tonight into Tuesday morning, as wind chills of -25 to -35 could be seen, allowing frostbite to set in within 30 minutes. As for the Keweenaw and near Whitefish Point, expect an additional 1 to 3 inches of dry, fluffy snow before the LES shifts north out of the UP late tonight. Expect the LES to remain offshore for the most part Tuesday into early Tuesday evening as winds remain SW'rly. However, despite the SW winds, don't expect temps to warm up too much Tuesday as highs are only projected to get into the mid teens across the area. As a weak shortwave low moves through Lake Superior Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, expect winds to converge over the Keweenaw Peninsula. The HREF 12z guidance for 1/30 is currently suggesting that snowfall rates of 1"/hr+ could be seen at times, with some spots locally seeing a foot or more by Wednesday morning. Some winter weather headlines may be needed for this convergent band, provided that model guidance does not trend away from this solution. As the shortwave low leaves the lake into Canada by Wednesday afternoon, expect the convergent LES to die-off over the Keweenaw, although some light LES could continue into Wednesday evening. Elsewhere over the UP, expect mid-level cloud cover to limit highs to only the mid-teens to low 20s. Our next shot for mentionable snowfall occurs Thursday when a Manitoba Mauler drops down over Lake Superior and reinvigorates LES over the NW snow belts. With some strong CAA expected with the system's passing, some blustery winds could create some patches of blowing snow across the NW snow belts. However, as we move into Thursday night, expect LES and winds to quickly lighten up, with high pressure ridging moving in from the west by Friday. This ridge should give us a quick break from snowfall. With very cold Arctic air moving over us behind the system, highs Friday may only remain in the single positive digits. Meanwhile, low temps Thursday and Friday nights may get down into the negative single digits. Another shot of snowfall looks possible sometime this weekend as a system passes through the area. From this upcoming weekend and beyond, expect temps to become above normal again as the troughing pattern bringing us the Arctic air moves eastward. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 701 PM EST MON JAN 30 2023 Airport minimums will continue at CMX this evening as persistent lake effect snow showers impact the Keweenaw Peninsula. Some improvement to MVFR is possible tonight, but that is a low confidence forecast at this point. In addition, westerly winds will remain gusty at CMX with sustained speeds in the 12 to 14 kt range, gusting to 24 kts. Periods of blowing snow will reduce visibilities. Elsewhere, VFR will prevail at IWD and SAW. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 410 PM EST MON JAN 30 2023 WNW to WSW winds of 25 to 30 knots with a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots possible continue across Lake Superior tonight into Tuesday. In addition, heavy freezing spray is still expected across the lake, although it slowly dies away Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Likewise, after a shortwave passes over Lake Superior Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, expect winds to calm down. However, when a Manitoba Mauler drops down and moves through the lake Wednesday night and Thursday, expect NW winds to pick up to 30 to gales up to 40 knots. Due to the vigorous CAA behind the system, expect heavy freezing spray to return Thursday and remain through Friday. Expect the winds to progressively weaken Thursday night and Friday behind the system, eventually becoming 20 knots or less Friday evening as ridging sets up over the area. Another system moving through this weekend could bring S'rly winds of 25 to gales to 35 knots ahead of it, with NW'rly winds of 20 to 30 knots possibly behind it. In addition, some heavy freezing spray could be seen ahead of the system this weekend. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ001-003. Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ002-004-009- 010-084. Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ005-011. Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ007-085. Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ241>244-249>251-263>267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTP LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...TAP