FXUS63 KMQT 250536 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 136 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and dry air, clear skies, and light winds today through tonight. - Borderline elevated fire weather conditions are likely on Thursday with minimum relative humidities in the 20 percent range. Light southeast winds will keep the area from meeting critical thresholds. - Two low pressure systems, one this weekend and another into early next week, bring an unsettled pattern. A brief period for severe weather is possible Saturday into Saturday night, however confidence remains low. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 GOES satellite imagery shows completely sunny skies over the U.P. early this afternoon as a high pressure sets up over Lake Superior for the rest of today through tonight. This high will keep winds light across the area through tonight, with many of the interior areas becoming completely calm during the overnight hours. Meanwhile, local observations have shown temps struggling to get into the 40s, with so far only the interior west succeeding in doing so. With cold air aloft being stubborn in leaving the area the rest of today through tonight, expect highs to be limited to the 40s across most of the area, save a few spots in the interior west hitting 50 and the upper 30s along the Lake Superior shoreline; as for lows, thinking they will generally be in the 20s, although a few spots in the interior east could dip down into the upper teens tonight. Expect the dry conditions created by the high pressure to continue through the short-term too; min RHs are still expected to bottom out into the upper teens to around 20%, while RH recoveries tonight are looking to only max out in the 70 to 90% range. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 438 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 The extended forecast starts out dry with high pressure over the Great Lakes, however an active and wet period sets up this weekend that continues into next week as two shortwaves ride northeast into the Upper Midwest. This continued southwest flow is also expected to bring above normal temps to the region into next week. Starting on Thursday, dry weather persists under sunny skies as the high pressure is centered over southern Ontario and extends over the Great Lakes Basin. Mid level ridging will be situated over the Plains with a trough over the southeastern U.S. With the positioning of the high pressure, the gradient may be strong enough to weaken the lake breeze off Lake Superior. With the southerly flow, the east looks to stay cooler in the upper 40s to mid 50s with broad 50s to possibly low 60s over the west. Good mixing will bring RHs down into the 20s away from the lakeshores, but fire weather concerns are low with light winds mainly below 15 mph. The trough over the west takes a negative tilt Thursday evening as it begins lifting northeast into the Central Plains Thursday night. With ridging still over the Upper Great Lakes, the area stays dry with lows mainly in the upper 20s to upper 30s and light southeast winds. Meanwhile, our colorado low pressure system associated with the first shortwave will be developing. On Friday, the trough takes on more of a negative tilt as it slows down over NE/SD. A warm front ahead of the low lifts north through WI during the day increasing cloud cover from the southeast, however showers look to mainly hold off until Friday night. Gusty southeast winds up to 25-35 mph are expected to mix down during the day from a LLJ overhead. Mixing in the afternoon will also result in min RHs near 30%, which will need to monitor these conditions in future forecast packages as lower RH values with the expected winds would increase fire weather concerns. Highs will be above normal in the 50s with some spots reaching into the low 60s in the west. Isentropic lift and weak PVA will support showers overspreading the UP Friday night; maybe accompanied by a rumble of thunder in the west. While there is some spread yet in the guidance, the consensus is the low pressure system will weaken on Saturday as it moves northeast from central MN to Lake Superior. This results in the UP being in the warm sector of the low ahead of the cold front for late in the day Saturday into Saturday night. Moist dew points are expected to rise into the mid to upper 50s with bulk wind shear around 40-50 kt and MLCAPE around 600-1200 j/kg. This leaves some potential for severe weather, assuming that previous or lingering clouds/precip do not work against diurnal heating. The best potential for severe weather is expected over the central UP where the weakest capping inversion is noted in model soundings. Showers and weak thunderstorm chances continue Saturday night over the east as the cold front continues east, but severe weather potential diminishes as instability is worked over. Periods of showers continue through Sunday. Another shortwave riding northeast into the Upper Midwest brings an additional low pressure system with it for Monday and Monday night. This brings more rain showers Sunday into Monday. With a lack of instability and periods of showers preceding the low, no strong storm are expected at this time. Dry weather then returns on Tuesday, but a shortwave riding east over Lake Superior brings another round of showers on Wednesday. Mid level ridging looks to return dry weather through Friday morning when another trough moves northeast into the Midwest. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 134 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Clear skies prevail through the forecast period as high pressure remains over the area. Light winds overnight become southerly at IWD and SAW this morning as the high pressure shifts east. East-southeasterly winds prevail at CMX. && .MARINE... Issued at 438 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep winds below 20 kts through Thursday as it shifts east. Southeast winds will increase to around 20 kts Thursday night with southeast/east to 20-30 kts Friday and Friday night; the strongest winds are expected along the U.S. Canadian border waters of eastern Lake Superior. Potential for gales remains low at this time (below 25%). The low pressure then tracks northeast across the lake late in the day Saturday into Saturday night resulting in 20-30 kt north winds Saturday night becoming northeast on Sunday behind the low pressure system. Northeast winds remain around 20-30 knots through Sunday night. Another low pressure system moves through the Upper Great Lakes Monday into Monday night yielding west winds behind the low that are expected to diminish back below 20 kts by Tuesday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TAP LONG TERM...Jablonski AVIATION...EK MARINE...Jablonski