FXUS63 KOAX 242251
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
551 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected,
  beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend. 

- Some severe weather is possible, especially during the 
  afternoon and evening hours on Friday, Saturday, and perhaps 
  Sunday. 

- There is a small risk for flooding due to the potential for 
  repeated thunderstorm activity over the same areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

It has been a beautiful day with mostly to partly sunny skies
with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Radar has show a few
echoes, but that was just the cloud cover. No precipitation has
reached the ground. 

We will see thickening mid/high clouds through the night as the
next trough continues to move through the Rockies. The evening 
will remain dry, but we do start to see 20-30% chance for spotty
showers after midnight and mostly across eastern NE.

Thursday will be mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. Cloud bases eventually thicken to
IFR/MVFR by Thursday evening with widespread showers and a
chance for thunderstorms. Highs Thursday reach the mid to upper
60s, with southeasterly winds increasing again to 15 to 30 mph. 
There is a marginal risk for severe storms in southeast NE 
Thursday night, and this would mostly be in the 9pm to 3am time
frame when CAMS suggest there could be stronger storms moving 
into the region in response to a strengthening low low jet and 
diffluent flow aloft. 

For Friday, the upper closed trough and attendant surface low
will be across Western Nebraska, then slowly drifts to northeast
Nebraska Friday evening. Friday morning, we should be socked in
with low clouds, areas of rain/drizzle/rumbles of thunder with
stout south southeasterly winds at 20 to 30 mph. And then we
should begin to break the clouds from southwest to northeast
during the afternoon, which will help trigger a chance of
stronger and potentially severe thunderstorms along and east of
the Missouri River that could impact the area through Friday
evening. SPC has maintained a slight risk of severe storms for
nearly the entire forecast area. This could include all modes of
severe weather. Northeast NE will be closer to the upper
low/surface low, so that is concerning regarding lower topped
super cells, but a squall line could also develop southward
along the Missouri River into the southern plains. First glance
of the time frame for severe storms Friday appears to be 3pm to
11pm. High temperatures Friday could range in the lower to
middle 70s.

And then precip chances shut down after midnight into Saturday
morning, but then storm chances will return Saturday afternoon
into Saturday evening as a cold front begins to move into the
area from the north. Ahead of the front, it will be a very nice
day with highs in the 70s before any rain arrives. The frontal
boundary could trigger an additional chance for severe storms
along/south of I80 that could linger through the evening. The
best time frame for severe storms Saturday appear to 4pm to
midnight. 

And finally, there will be one more day with active weather on
Sunday, as the next closed upper trough/surface low move from
south central NE to the upper Mississippi River valley. Again
with a proximity to the upper low/surface low, we'll have to
monitor for lop topped supercells, but confidence is lower that
far out. 

The multiple chances for rain will be especially welcome as we
have been quite dry, especially with the windy conditions the
last several days. WPC has placed the entire area in a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall for Thursday, but believe may be
overdone, and flooding is generally not expected this day. With
the continued chance of showers/storms Friday, Saturday, and
Sunday, if some areas continue to receive heavy thunderstorms
over the same locations, there could be small risk for isolated
flooding, but overall, believe we should be able to handle the
rain as it's spread out of a several day period, but we'll be
monitoring that as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 544 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Patchy cloud cover over eastern Nebraska will give way to
regionwide overcast by 06Z tonight. Cloud ceilings will
gradually lower over the duration of the forecast period. There
is some potential for IFR ceilings at KLNK and KOFK after 19Z,
however model spread yields too much uncertainty to include at
TAFs at this time. Have opted to keep fuel-alternate MVFR
ceilings for now. Scattered rain showers are also expected to
develop by 11Z and linger through the forecast period. Due to 
spotty coverage and rain chances being in the second half of the
forecast period, will refrain from including in TAFs for now, 
but TEMPO or FM groups for rain will likely be added in a 
subsequent TAF issuance or future amendment.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...Darrah