FXUS63 KPAH 102358
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
658 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is expected through the weekend with a warming
  trend to the upper 70s-lower 80s by Sunday.

- Showers and thunderstorms are forecast Monday-Tuesday.
  Potential for severe weather and/or flooding issues is
  limited.

- After a midweek break, a chance of showers and storms is in
  the forecast for the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Updated aviation section for 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Patchy cumulus is moving southward through the Quad State region
this afternoon. Temperatures have only risen to the upper 60s 
to lower 70s. Northerly winds are gradually becoming lighter, 
dropping below 5 mph overnight. A temporary shift to 
southwesterly flow is likely ahead of a cold frontal passage 
early tomorrow morning. Precipitation with the front is nearly
entirely northeast of the Quad State, with only a slight chance
of a light shower in the Evansville Tri-State. The front will 
limit clearing potential overnight, especially in the 
northeast.

Behind the front, breezy winds are forecast, near Lake Wind 
Advisory criteria in the northeast Saturday. Dry weather and
mostly clear skies are forecast for the weekend, with a warming
trend as highs reach the upper 70s to lower 80s on Sunday with
southerly winds returning.

Models agree on a trough with an embedded low pressure system
moving eastward through the Quad State early next week. Showers
and storms are in the forecast Monday morning through Tuesday
night with the better potential for thunderstorms Tuesday as the
low approaches. With limited shear and mediocre lapse rates, 
there aren't model signals for severe storms. Rainfall around an
inch will keep things soggy and potentially extend minor river 
flooding, but doesn't stand out for flooding issues. 

The NBM has very little separation between this early week
system and a late week system due to uncertainty on end
time/start time, but models suggest there will probably be a 
solid 24-36 hours of dry conditions midweek as a narrow ridge
moves through. Models agree on late week troughing to our west 
but have significant variation in structure, number of shortwave
disturbances, and progression, leaving PoPs in the chance 
(30-50%) range for Thursday-Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light and
variable winds this evening and overnight will become southwest
at 5-10kts after 10z, gradually shifting to the northwest
between 12z-18z with the passage of a weak cold front.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...RST