FXUS63 KSGF 250542 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1242 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and some storms return late today into Thursday. - Risk of severe storms occur Friday through Sunday night as multiple rounds of storms move through the region. - Heavy rain and the potential for flooding will accompany the active weather period through this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 An upper level ridge is to the west of the area leaving the area in a northwest upper level flow pattern. A front remains stalled to the south of the area this afternoon. A few showers may be possible late this afternoon into this evening, but most if not all location should remain dry and any rain that can develop will be light and not last long. The upper level ridge will move east across the plains as an upper level trough moves into the southwestern CONUS tonight. As the upper level ridge moves east the stalled front across northern Oklahoma and Arkansas will start to move back to the northeast as a warm front. The front will slowly move back to the northwest tonight and Thursday. Scattered showers will develop along and ahead of the front tonight into Thursday. Some weak uncapped elevated instability will develop along and just ahead of the warm front late tonight into Thursday. As a result a few embedded thunderstorms should be able to develop Thursday morning into the the afternoon hours. As the front moves east the shower and storm potential should decrease in coverage by the evening hours Thursday. No severe weather is expected, but some small hail will be possible with a few of the storms. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible as the front slowly moves northeast through the area. Highs will warm into the lower to middle 60s on Thursday as the warm front is slow to move north through the area and showers and storms will occur at times through the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 The upper level trough will move east into western Kansas on Thursday evening/night and will then move northeast across Nebraska on Friday and into Minnesota by Friday night. As the trough moves northeast a dry line/cold front will move east across the plains. Storms will develop across central Oklahoma and Kansas Thursday evening along the front and will move east. There is the potential that this activity develops into a line segment and tracks across portions of the area late Thursday night into Friday as the warm front will pushes north. Moisture and instability will start to increase behind the front. Friday morning there may still be a cap for surface base convection, but elevated convection will be possible as there will be less of a cap for elevated storms. So, the main risk with any line segments Friday morning will likely be damaging winds. The cold front will move into eastern Kansas Friday afternoon/evening but will then move back to the west Friday night into Saturday. Will have to see how quick morning convection clears to the east and how much recovering occurs and how far to the east. The area will be in the warm sector Friday afternoon/evening so if the cap can weaken behind the morning convection, storms should be able to develop across eastern Kansas Friday evening and night. Instability will increase ahead of the front along with shear which will lead to a risk for severe storms with this activity. Large hail up to golf balls and damaging winds will be the main risks. Low level shear will also increase so there will be the risk for a few tornadoes. Storms should move east off the front into the area. The questions is how far east storms can move, as the front will be moving to the west and the upper level support moving off to the northeast, and what the coverage will be with afternoon/evening storms. The front will move back into central Kansas on Saturday. Another upper level trough will start to move east into the Plains on Saturday. As this occurs additional storms will develop long the front Saturday afternoon and evening across central Kansas and Oklahoma. This activity will move off to the east and could potentially form into a line and track into the area late Saturday into Sunday. The upper level trough will move east across the region and will send the front through the area Saturday night into Sunday. Additional storms will likely develop along the front. Severe weather will be possible with the rounds of storms on Saturday and Sunday along with locally heavy rainfall as multiple rounds of storms occur across the area. Localized flooding will be possible through the weekend. Showers and storms may linger into Monday but should push east of the area by Monday evening. Ensemble model members show an upper level ridge builds over the region by the middle of next week with above normal temperatures and dry conditions forecast to occur across the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Conditions will be variable, but generally deteriorate, through the TAF period. A band of light showers just exited JLN and is currently impacting BBG and about to impact SGF at 07Z. This band will be quick and last no more than an hour. Through tonight and tomorrow morning, coverage of rain showers will increase, affecting all TAF sites. Embedded thunderstorms are possible with the rounds of rain through the entire TAF period. It is quite difficult to nail down location and timing of these rounds of rain/thundershowers, but there is a high likelihood in it raining on and off throughout the TAF period. As the greater coverage of rain settles in after 16-18Z, and a warm front pushes north, ceilings will gradually drop to MVFR at all TAF sites by 18Z with good probabilities for SGF and BBG to reach IFR ceilings by 00Z. Additionally, winds will be SE'ly and gusty with sustained winds of 13-18 kts and gusts up to 25 kts through much of the TAF period. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 26: KSGF: 66/2016 April 27: KSGF: 67/1899 April 28: KSGF: 68/1896 Record Precipitation: April 28: KSGF: 2.19/1996 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Price CLIMATE...Wise