FXUS63 KUNR 102252
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
452 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend through Monday

- Dry Saturday, but chances of showers/storms return Sunday and 
  continue into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

An upper ridge is wrapping into the northern plains, between a 
split trough. With the surface trough to our east, northwesterly 
winds are somewhat breezy across the western SD plains. Under 
mostly sunny skies, temperatures are warming into the 60s and 
lower 70s.

While there may be some cirrus present, mostly clear skies are 
expected tonight. Lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

The western CONUS will continue its warming trend through the 
weekend, with warmer air also moving into our CWA as the ridge 
shifts eastward. Beautiful weather can be expected Saturday, with 
fairly light winds and temperatures in the 70s, beneath sunny 
skies. Sunday will start out similarly; however, weak shortwave 
energy moving through the ridge will spark some showers and 
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Shear and CAPE will be weak, so 
not expecting any severe weather. 

Warm temperatures will continue Monday, as a trough pushes the 
upper ridge axis over the northern plains. Energy associated with 
the approaching trough will promote another round of thunderstorms
Monday afternoon, and buoyancy/shear will be enough to support 
some strong to severe storms. 

Chances for showers/storms will continue through most of next 
week, as the trough slowly moves across the central CONUS. With 
cooler air pushing into the region Tuesday, expecting the threat 
for severe weather to be relatively low. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 451 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

Diurnal cumulus clouds will dissipate shortly after sunset. VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Pojorlie
AVIATION...Helgeson