FXUS64 KAMA 251140 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 640 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 As of early this morning, latest radar and satellite imagery were watching low-level cloud decks hold across the Panhandles thanks to the continue ingestion of low-level moisture into the CWA. At this time the drier air sitting in the mid-levels is doing its expected job of keeping the area cap and incapable of producing more than a brief shower and/or drizzle. However, areas around the southeastern Panhandles will have to be monitor as the ingredients are still present in the morning hours for a severe thunderstorm to occur should the cap be broken. However, the main event for the day is going to be the incoming system as models continue to track an upper-level trough moving through just to our north. This trough will help set-up our classic dryline scenario for the Panhandles, in which everything west of the line will see dry and windy conditions while to the east will be chances of severe thunderstorms. Currently, confidence remains high that the dryline will split the Panhandles roughly around the Amarillo to Guymon line. This placement would see the eastern half of the Panhandles under the chances of severe weather and the western half under critical fire weather conditions. When it comes to the western half and the chances of critical fire weather, confidence is moderately high that we will see critical fire weather conditions present late this afternoon into the early evening. Winds are expected to shift out of the southwest at this time bring the potential to see speeds nearing 25 to 35 mph and gust nearing 50 mph. However, one thing that does delay these conditions is the relative humidity values with most models not expecting values to reach near 10% till around noon or 1 pm. Given the delay, the Red Flag warning will not start until noon today and only last till 9 PM when winds begin to die down. On the east and severe side of the Panhandle, things are a lot more complicated. The short and sweet of it would be to simply to say that all hazards would be possible should anything break the present cap and develop. However, to dig further lets look at the ingredients in play for this afternoon and evening. As of this morning, most models are see very good MLCAPE (2000 to 3000 J/kg) meets very good shear at all levels with strong 0 to 1km shear being one of the more concerning factors. The support and ingredients are present for a storm to produce hail up to baseball size with isolated strong tornadoes reaching the EF2+ range not out of the question. Now for the metaphorical wrench in this possibility. As good as these ingredients are, they are going to be lock behind the same inversion that is capping the area now. So, what is it going to take to break the cap? If you are banking on the dryline to provide you with lift strong enough to overcome the cap, then most models are going to have you wait until 6 to 7 pm tonight when the gradient sharpens. Unfortunately, that makes for a very short window for anything to develop since the cap will only strengthen once the sun sets. Now if you are banking on the clouds breaking up and convective heating beating the cap then this would need to occur much earlier in the day, which is not looking good for the southeast. The northeast, on the other hand, has me concerned. Looking through the latest model soundings that area continues to have the best chances of breaking out of the cloud cover the earliest which would give it plenty of time to heat up and produce thunderstorms. Should that trend continue to hold, then I would put best chances of initial convection up there. Regardless given how conditional the severe potential has become, it has been decided to back precipitation chances off for the afternoon and leave the northeast with the best chance or 25 to 35%. As for Friday, a brief dry period will look to follow the exit of the system with breezy winds potentially being enough to create elevated fire weather that afternoon. Otherwise, look for today and Friday to see high nearing the mid to low 80s, especially in the west where we dry out first. Scoleri && .LONG TERM ... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Model agreement is relatively high regarding a strong upper level system encroaching upon the Plains to start the weekend. This low is progged to be positioned around the Four Corners region by Saturday afternoon, with a stout upper jet streak stretched atop the forecast area out ahead of it. Placement of this synoptic feature would favor a deepening sfc low in the vicinity of SE Colorado to SW Kansas, generating a decent pressure gradient over the Panhandles. Windy conditions will ensue as a result, with sustained southwest winds of 25-35 mph expected across a majority of the Panhandles. Wind fields aloft and limited cloud cover appear favorable for higher gusts to reach the surface during the afternoon and evening hours, with probabilistic data showing an increasing signal (50-80% chance) for gusts to reach the 40-50 mph range. These southwest winds should also serve to usher in drier air, allowing the dryline to mix further east, likely settling along or east of the TX-OK border. On the off chance timing of the system and placement of the dryline trend more favorably, at best we would be looking at about a 15-25% chance for storms to initiate in the very far east-southeastern Panhandles, before quickly crossing into Oklahoma. Given the short turnover period between systems and limited opportunity for moisture recovery, current inclination is to lean heavily towards drier guidance for the Panhandles. With warm, windy, and dry conditions expected, critical fire weather concerns will return for portions of the CWA. As the upper level and attendant sfc low depart Saturday night, a weak cold front will drop south, providing temperatures ~ 5-10 degrees cooler on Sunday (60s and 70s Sunday compared to 70s and 80s on Saturday). A warming trend shifts into full gear to kickoff the work week, as broad ridging aloft gradually settles in. Afternoon temperatures rebound nicely to the 70s and 80s Monday, before further escalating towards the low 90s on Tuesday. Anticipate dry conditions to dominate during this timeframe, although subtle hints of precipitation potentially re-emerge by mid next week. Harrel && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 As of 11:30 UTC, latest satellite was observing a pocket of dry air move across KAMA which is allowing for a brief period of VFR conditions. These conditions are not expected to last long given that clouds are already back filling into the area, so expected CIGS to return to MVFR and IFR levels soon. As we head into the late morning to early afternoon, CIGs are expected to improve slowly with all site returning to VFR sometime around the 18Z package. Winds will also look to pick at the surface this afternoon with potential to gust above 30kts. As for severe weather impacts, all models are still pointing to best chances east of the terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for the western Panhandles, behind the dryline, due to windy conditions and low RH values. Fuels and fuel loading is most receptive generally along and north of the Canadian River with more uncertainty south of the Canadian River. The Fire Weather Watch has been converted to a Red Flag Warning along and north of the Canadian River with Deaf Smith County added in this latest update. Scoleri && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 85 53 82 52 / 10 10 0 0 Beaver OK 84 52 85 51 / 30 20 0 0 Boise City OK 85 47 81 44 / 10 0 0 0 Borger TX 85 55 87 54 / 20 10 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 89 52 84 51 / 10 0 0 0 Canyon TX 88 52 81 50 / 10 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 81 53 82 52 / 20 20 0 0 Dalhart TX 86 46 81 44 / 10 0 0 0 Guymon OK 86 50 84 46 / 30 10 0 0 Hereford TX 88 51 81 49 / 10 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 81 55 85 54 / 30 20 0 0 Pampa TX 81 54 84 54 / 20 10 0 0 Shamrock TX 78 53 85 52 / 20 20 0 0 Wellington TX 79 53 85 52 / 20 30 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016. OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...11