FXUS64 KBMX 270151 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 851 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 836 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2024 Warm front was hung up across far eastern Alabama early this evening. This was due to the surface high pressure building down the Appalachians. Overall, this was having no impact to the sensible weather anywhere across the area. The upper ridge continues to allow high cloudiness into the region. Even though the high drifts eastward Saturday, high cloudiness will drift across the sky. There probably will also be some clouds in the 5-7k ft range too. No changes planned for the overnight forecast. Lows overnight mainly in the 60s and highs mainly into the 80s Saturday. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2024 Warm conditions are expected across Central Alabama through the short term period as a large ridge builds across the eastern CONUS. Southerly flow has developed, and this will usher in a warmer airmass with highs in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the low/mid 60s. Ample low-level moisture will be in place, so dewpoints are not expected to mix as much during the afternoon. A remnant warm front is lifting across northeast Alabama in response to an ejecting low- pressure system over the Central Plains. Some hi-res models indicate a small chance for some isolated showers across our northeast counties this afternoon with some weak convergence along the boundary due to the damming over northern Georgia. Some cu is already developing in this region. Conditions will be rain-free tomorrow as the ridge dominates, but there will be some high-level clouds passing across the region and more fair weather cu during the afternoon. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 207 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2024 A rather robust line of convection will be near the MS River Monday morning. However, the line will likely weaken as it tracks eastward towards Alabama as the upper support wanes. Even though the upper support will be weakening, there should still be enough forcing for scattered to numerous showers and storms Monday night, mainly across north Alabama. Once the upper short wave trough passes east of Alabama on Tuesday, an upper ridge will build back into Alabama Wednesday and Thursday, with small rain chances confined to the far northern counties. Above normal temperatures expected with lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s. 58/rose && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 836 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2024 VFR conditions are forecast again through Saturday. There will be considerable high cloudiness drifting overhead. Probably need to add in some sct 050-070 for Saturday. Otherwise, winds will vary from east to southeast overnight 5-10kts. As the southerly flow establishes itself Saturday, winds increase to southeast 10-20kts. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... Southerly low level flow will keep afternoon RH values well above critical values. No wetting rain through Monday morning, with increasing rain chances across north Alabama Monday afternoon and Monday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 63 82 60 82 / 10 10 0 0 Anniston 63 81 60 82 / 10 10 0 0 Birmingham 65 82 63 82 / 10 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 63 84 63 83 / 10 10 0 0 Calera 64 82 63 81 / 10 10 0 0 Auburn 64 81 62 80 / 10 0 0 0 Montgomery 65 84 64 84 / 10 0 0 0 Troy 64 84 63 83 / 10 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM....58/rose AVIATION...75