FXUS64 KBRO 031141 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 541 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 322 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Key Message - * Potential increasing for a few heavier showers and nuisance flooding for the lower Valley, especially Cameron County, today and tonight. * A high rip current risk for the local beaches through 6 PM Wednesday. A weak frontal system stretches across the lower Texas Coast, across the lower RGV, and into Northeast Mexico. Southern High Plains high pressure is still pushing into East Texas and is having some influence on the local pressure gradient, especially against a weak surface trough along the lower Texas Coast stretching south into the waters of the Northeast Mexican Coast. Stronger marine winds and higher seas are driving an elevated (high) rip current risk. Isolated to scattered showers are also extant along the coast. Higher rain chances should spread over the CWA today and tonight as East Texas high pressure retreats east and the frontal system lifts north over the area. Cloudy skies and rainy weather will persist today and tonight before conditions improve some on Wednesday. Northeast winds will become reestablished from the south on Wednesday. Rain chances over land will end on Wednesday. In the mean time, QPF totals could reach one to two inches for Cameron County and vicinity the next 24 hours where the surface low and associated front slowly lift north today and tonight. High temps today will be in the 60s and 70s, warming into the mid 70s across the CWA Wednesday as rain chances end. Low temps tonight will be mainly in the 50s with a few 60s nearer the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 322 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 An upper level trough situated over the western US looks to remain in place for much of the period, supporting persistent southwesterly flow aloft. A series of weak shortwaves look to move through this upper level pattern, enhancing forcing over Deep South Texas. At the surface, persistent moisture looks to remain in place through the weekend, with PWAT values around 1.5 inches near the coast and 1.3-1.4 inches further inland. Coastal trough looks to setup along the Lower Texas Coast again Thursday, bringing a resurgence of PoPs going into the weekend. Rain chances look to peak around 60% Thursday night, falling to around 50% Friday and 20-30% through the weekend. Rain chances look to decrease again early next week as the coastal troughing weakens, though a lingering 20% chance of rain will probably exist along the coast. Temperature wise, highs are expected to range from the mid 70s to low 80s Thursday, then mid 60s to mid 70s Friday and Saturday. High temperatures could return to the 70s to low 80s Sunday and Monday. Low temperatures in the 60s Wednesday night look to fall into the 50s through the remainder of the period, though extreme southern portions of the CWA and areas along the coast could remain in the low 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Multilayer low clouds have settled in over KBRO and KHRL, yielding MVFR ceilings. KMFE has not yet succumbed but has nonetheless low VFR ceilings. The TAFs will become increasingly messy as the day progresses due to a weak low and frontal system lifting north over the area. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be in the mix, especially by this afternoon and tonight. Ceilings could decrease to IFR later today. A few heavier showers will be possible at Brownsville and possibly Harlingen later in the day, with the threat of lower visibility in addition to lower ceilings. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Today through Wednesday...Hazardous marine conditions will continue in the short term, with exercise caution conditions for the Laguna Madre and small craft advisory conditions for the Gulf waters. I extended the SCA for the Gulf through 6 AM Wednesday, but we may need another extension. The hazardous conditions will be driven by a low pressure area and associated frontal system along the lower Texas Coast. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and elevated seas will give way to weaker south winds yet continued elevated seas on Wednesday. Wednesday night through Monday...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories may carry over into the start of the long term period as elevated seas slowly subside Thursday. A brief resurgence of winds and seas is possible early Friday morning, and additional Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines may be needed. Conditions look to improve later in the day Friday, with light to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas remaining in place over the weekend. A weak surface trough along the coast looks to keep elevated rain chances through the period across the coastal waters. Rain chances look to peak around 60-70% Thursday and Thursday night, otherwise remaining around 40-50%. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 62 77 68 / 80 60 30 10 HARLINGEN 76 57 76 64 / 80 60 10 10 MCALLEN 73 58 76 65 / 60 50 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 66 55 73 62 / 60 40 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 66 76 72 / 90 70 40 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 61 77 67 / 80 70 30 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ150-155-170- 175. && $$ SHORT TERM...54-BHM LONG TERM....60-BE AVIATION...54-BHM