FXUS64 KCRP 310438 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1038 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 328 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 The deterministic model runs predict an upper pattern characterized by quasi-zonal flow, except for a nearly cut-off upper low moving slowly eastward or meandering over Baja CA. Upper forcing from this disturbance, and from the associated upper streak, will remain west of the CWA during the period. However, isentropic lift is expected to persist over the CWA during the period and contribute to patchy/areas of light rain and isolated/scattered showers. If surface freezing temperatures were to occur over the CWA, the thermodynamic structure (NAM deterministic SkewT-logP at select locations in the CWA) is suggestive of freezing rain. Although the NBM (via the WSUP viewer) outputs 20-25 percent probability of freezing rain over portions of the CWA Tuesday night, the deterministic NAM-12/RAP-13 and the SREF ensemble mean maintain surface temperatures above freezing tonight and Tuesday night. Thus, not highly confident in freezing precipitation at this time (Caveat, only a 5F cooler trend in model guidance would significantly increase the likelihood of freezing rain, especially over the northern CWA.) Expect wind chill readings in the 25-35F range, which does not meet the wind chill criterion for a Wind chill Advisory. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 328 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Key Messages: -Cold wet weather will continue through Thursday Morning -Near to above normal temperatures expected this upcoming weekend Shallow cold airmass will be well entrenched across the area to start the period Wednesday morning maintaining well below normal temperatures (~25 degrees below normal). As it stands now, temps should remain above freezing as all of the deterministic guidance keeps temps above the 32 degree mark. A potent S/W trough will swing across the state Wednesday through Thursday morning bringing widespread precipitation, which should be all rain. Rainfall totals of 1/4 to 1/2" are likely. After all that was said, there are a few ensemble members that do show sub-freezing temperatures across the norther tier of counties early Wed morning, thus if temps do turn colder than forecast, our northern tier of counties from Live Oak to Victoria could see some light freezing rain early Wed morning. Much drier air will surge into the region Thursday with rain ending and skies slowly clearing from west to east late. This will allow temps to moderate into the 50s/60s. Expect a clear and chilly night Thursday Night as high pressure settles into the region. Expect a gradual warmup into the weekend with highs in 60s/70s with abundant sunshine as a mid level ridge builds overhead. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Expect IFR/LIFR ceilings will persist at all sites across South Texas through the TAF period. MVFR visibility is possible at all sites as low clouds and light showers/drizzle settle in across the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 328 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 The combination of surface high pressure to the north, and a surface trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, expect moderate to strong northeast to north flow tonight through Tuesday night. Based on the >50 percent HREF probability of surface wind >20 knots, issued a Small Craft Advisory for the Waters until 06z Tuesday. Expect isentropic lift to contribute to patchy/areas of light rain and isolated/scattered showers tonight through Tuesday night. Moderate north winds on Wednesday will become strong from the northwest on Thursday as a reinforcing surge of high pressure moves across the waters. Small Craft Advisories will be likely Thursday afternoon through Friday Morning. Winds will relax and seas will begin to subside on Friday as high pressure weakens. A weak onshore flow will develop on Saturday and will persist through Sunday as high pressure moves east. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected Wednesday through Thursday morning as an upper level storm system moves across the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 39 42 37 43 / 30 20 60 50 Victoria 36 39 36 43 / 30 20 50 60 Laredo 40 43 40 44 / 60 60 90 70 Alice 37 41 36 41 / 30 30 70 60 Rockport 40 43 37 45 / 30 30 60 60 Cotulla 38 41 38 44 / 50 70 80 80 Kingsville 39 43 36 42 / 30 30 70 50 Navy Corpus 44 45 42 45 / 40 40 70 70 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for GMZ231-232-236-237- 250-255. Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ231-232- 236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...WC LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...LS/77