FXUS64 KCRP 200001 AAA AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 701 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 .DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 00Z TAFs. && .AVIATION...Smoke and haze from fires in Mexico and Central America has enveloped south Texas and will cause some vsby limitations at times through Monday and beyond. Stratus/MVFR ceilings over the immediate coastal regions in the Coastal Bend at this time will move inland during the early evening hours. Expect MVFR ceilings will cover the coastal plains by 02Z. Southeasterly low level flow will increase to 25-30 knots during the night with MVFR ceilings covering the Brush Country by 06Z. Vsbys will lower to MVFR in haze/fog over the coastal plains before daybreak with IFR vsbys possible at ALI/VCT. The pressure gradient will steadily strengthen through the day Monday with southeast winds becoming gusty by 15Z while MVFR ceilings persist until 17-18Z. Clouds will become scattered/VFR for the afternoon while winds continue to increase with gusts over 30 knots for all of the region. Gusts will be near 35 knots in the Coastal Bend. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 304 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)... The closed mid/upper low pressure area currently along the northern CA coast will continue to move eastward through the intermountain west on Monday and into the southern Rockies on Monday night. The net effect will be to increase the S/SE gradient flow across the CWA, especially from late Monday morning through Tuesday morning. BUFKIT and other guidance strongly suggest a necessary wind advisory for most of the CWA on Monday. Winds will gust to around 40 mph for most of the area on Monday afternoon, especially the southern Brush Country and southern Coastal Bend. Windy conditions will persist into Monday night as a S/SE LLJ of 50 kts develops across the area. Rain chances will be close to nil through the short-term as once again the main forcing will remain well north of the CWA. Still cannot rule out a rogue light shower or sprinkle but not enough to mention at this time. Temps will remain above normal especially at night as mid/upper 70 dewpoints and enough wind keep temps elevated. Minor coastal flooding will persist through the short-term as higher than normal astronomical tides combine with the already high water levels. Thus extended the ongoing Coastal Flood Advisory through Tuesday evening. Could get close to warning criteria on Monday along the Gulf-facing beaches as Bob Hall Pier gets to around 2.8 ft MSL. LONG TERM (Tuesday through Saturday Night)... Strong onshore winds will be ongoing at the start the period as surface low deepens in western Kansas down to 979 mbs. However winds will diminish by midday as surface dryline advances eastward across the Brush County and into the western Coastal Bend. Subsidence associated with the southwesterly flow behind the dryline will allow temperatures to heat up, breaching triple digits along the Rio Grande. Ahead of the dryline, and primarily in the Victoria area, there is a small window of time in which the tail end of a line of thunderstorms may affect the area. Models prog a strong cap in place early on Tuesday, but it could weaken enough to generate a few storms around midday. Given the strong instability forecast by 18z Tue with CAPEs >3500 j/kg and 0-6km shear 35-40kts, an isolated severe storm may be possible. But the better probabilities will be north of the area where dynamics are stronger. Drier conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period as mid-upper level ridge, centered over the southeastern U.S., extends over South Texas. Breezy conditions will prevail much of the week however, as low pressure persists in the lee of the Rockies. Above normal tide levels (minor coastal flooding) will likely persist through much of the week due to persistently strong onshore winds and high astronomical tides. MARINE... Went ahead and issued a Gale Watch for Monday night for the nearshore and offshore waters. A strengthening gradient flow and isallobaric contributions should lead to frequent gale force gusts Monday night for the nearshore and offshore waters. BUFKIT profiles were indicating 35-40 kt wind gust potential. Seas will respond quickly on Monday night and build to as high as 10 feet. Before this time, an SCA will likely begin by mid-morning Monday across the southern waters and then quickly develop across the remainder of the waters during the day on Monday. Gale conditions will be possible through Tuesday morning as a 40-50kt low level jet will be positioned over the gulf waters resulting in frequently gusts to gale force and high seas of 9 to 11 feet. The gradient is expected to weaken late Tuesday as a dryline moves across South Texas, but will restrengthen again on Wednesday and remain moderate to strong into the weekend. As a result, small craft advisories may be needed for much of the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 90 78 92 77 / 10 10 10 10 0 Victoria 77 89 77 89 75 / 10 10 10 30 10 Laredo 79 101 77 103 76 / 10 10 10 10 0 Alice 77 94 77 97 75 / 10 10 10 10 0 Rockport 78 85 78 86 78 / 10 10 10 10 10 Cotulla 76 97 76 98 73 / 10 10 10 10 0 Kingsville 78 92 78 95 76 / 10 10 10 10 0 Navy Corpus 79 88 79 86 78 / 10 10 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. GM...Gale Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ TMT/89...AVIATION