FXUS64 KCRP 030442 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1042 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 131 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2024 Key Message: - Increasing rain chances tomorrow. A largely persistent synoptic pattern will dominate the short-term period, characterized by a deep longwave trough over the eastern CONUS, quasi-zonal flow across South Texas, and a ridge positioned over the western CONUS. At the surface, a high pressure system centered over the Northern Plains will gradually shift southeast, settling over the Southeastern United States by Tuesday. Meanwhile, a surface trough currently located over northern Mexico and the southern Texas coast is expected to migrate northwestward, eventually developing into a closed low-pressure system near the Lower Texas Coast. Mid-level moisture will steadily increase over the area this afternoon, promoting the continuation of low- to mid-level cloud cover. While a stray sprinkle cannot be ruled out through this evening, more substantial rain chances are anticipated beginning Tuesday. By Tuesday, isentropic lift will intensify alongside rising PWATs, which are forecast to climb to slightly above-normal levels (approximately 1.30-1.60 inches). As the surface trough approaches South Texas, isolated to scattered precipitation will become possible, with the highest rain chances focused across the southernmost counties, along the coast, and over area waters. Rainfall is expected to be light, with minimal accumulations. Widespread overcast skies will blanket the region through Tuesday night, suppressing high temperatures to the low 60s to the low 70s. Overnight lows will remain seasonable, topping out in the 50s through Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 131 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2024 Key Messages: - Slightly warmer Wednesday and Thursday. - Rain chances continue through the week. Very little change from the previous forecast package. A warm front is still expected to move across South Texas promoting slightly warmer temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front late this week will bring temperatures back down to seasonal levels. Rain chances from the inverted trough in earlier this week will decrease Wednesday and Wednesday night before they begin to slightly increase Thursday ahead of our next front. Apart from the Victoria Crossroads who have medium (40-60%) chances for rain Wednesday, our next best chance to see some water fall from the sky will be Thursday night with a medium (40-60%) chance and Friday through Friday night with lower end (35-45%) chances for rain. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2024 VFR conditions can be expected to begin the period. As more moisture moves into the region, ceilings will fall across the region to MVFR with the isolated to scattered showers possible. This will begin during the morning period in the west and progress to the east reaching VCT by the evening. Some periods of IFR at ALI will be possible though I wouldn't be surprised if LRD and CRP dip into IFR briefly. Confidence is low on CRP and LRD so this was left out of the TAFs for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2024 Strong northeasterly flow and elevated seas over the Gulf waters are leading to Small Craft Advisory conditions. These conditions are expected to persist into much of the work week. Low to moderate rain chances (20-40%) can generally be expected the remainder of today increasing to moderate to high (40-75%) chances by tomorrow. Winds will become south-southeasterly beginning Tuesday night. Moderate to strong southerly flow will continue Wednesday decreasing to more moderate levels by Wednesday night. Winds will shift to the northeast Thursday strengthening back to moderate to strong levels (15-20 knots) with onshore flowing quickly returning Friday. High chances (50-75%) for rain are expected from Wednesday through Saturday before decreasing to a medium chance (30-50%) Saturday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 58 70 63 76 / 30 30 40 30 Victoria 47 70 57 77 / 0 20 40 60 Laredo 56 61 54 72 / 40 50 40 10 Alice 56 69 60 76 / 30 40 40 20 Rockport 57 71 64 75 / 20 30 60 50 Cotulla 57 65 56 72 / 20 30 30 10 Kingsville 58 70 62 77 / 30 40 50 20 Navy Corpus 62 72 67 75 / 20 50 60 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ231-232-236- 237. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ250-255-270- 275. && $$ SHORT TERM...KRS/98 LONG TERM....JCP/84 AVIATION...NP/92