FXUS64 KCRP 132346 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 646 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Key Messages: ▶ Slight to Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms through this early evening. A line of showers and thunderstorms is currently tracking across portions of the Victoria Crossroads into the northern Coastal Bend. A few of these storms have become strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail reported. Conditions are conducive for further severe weather development through the afternoon with dewpoints in the 70s, steep lapse rates, MUCAPE values at or around 4000-5000 J/kg and a weakening cap. The Severe Weather Watch has been extended to now include the northern coastal counties and adjacent bays/nearshore waters through 00Z. This activity is forecast to continue on a southeastward progression through the reminder of the afternoon with the highest convective chances transitioning into the waters by early evening. A few discrete cells have redeveloped out west near the Rio Grande Plains along the location of a frontal boundary. Additional severe weather concerns reside with these western storms as they enter a more unstable environment. Very large hail is possible. Conditions are forecast to improve tonight with drier air filtering in behind the boundary. PWATs are progged to drop below an inch by Tuesday while the shortwave trough exists the region and surface high pressure briefly settles. Winds will shift to the north and northeast tonight, and out of the east on Tuesday as the high drifts eastward. Moisture will begin to increase again Tuesday night with the low-level flow becoming more southeasterly. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Key Messages: ▶ Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday ▶ Heat stress conditions possible Thursday, Sunday, and Monday in the Southern Coastal Plains and Brush Country A shortwave will move across the Southwestern US Wednesday night into Thursday. This will combine with well above normal PWAT values (2.00-2.50 inches), which is flirting with the climatological max for this time of year. The caveat for storm development will be the uncertainty with the CIN values. Models are depicting moderate to strong instability (2500-3500 J/kg), but aren't in agreement with how much of a cap will be over the area. Given the immense amount of instability, it's not out of the question to see some strong to severe storms develop. SPC came to a similar conclusion on the uncertainty with the CIN values which prevented them from issuing an outlook. Models depict a surface trough developing during the day Thursday in West/Central Texas. A chance for showers and thunderstorms does exist nonetheless due to the presence of these factors. This will likely need to be monitored as the situation evolves. Thursday, depending on the uncertainties with convection, could see heat stress conditions across the Southern Coastal Plains and Brush Country. With the abundance of moisture in the area it will be pretty humid allowing for heat indices to increase to around 110. A similar story will follow for Sunday and Monday. The need for a Heat Advisory may come into play during these days and will also be closely monitored as we transition through the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Complicated situation to start with convection still ongoing, however, it looks like LRD, COT and VCT should be done with the convection for the night. ALI and CRP still have some over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, skies in the west should clear out, and are clearing out with so that VFR conditions are expected for LRD and COT. The moisture from the convection will probably (40-50% chance) produce fog at VCT, ALI, and CRP. However, low confidence in the VSBYs expected. Based on trends would expect MVFR VSBYs, however, some models are showing borderline IFR VSBYs. However, after 12z/Tue, will expect that everything trends back to VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will impact the coastal waters this evening in response to a passing disturbance. A few storms could become strong to severe at times, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards. An associated weak frontal boundary will move offshore this evening, shifting the winds out of the northeast through Tuesday morning. A weak to moderate east- southeasterly flow resumes Tuesday afternoon into the overnight period. Drier conditions are in store on Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible early Thursday morning through Thursday evening. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue through much of the week and the remainder of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 70 91 72 90 / 30 0 0 0 Victoria 65 91 67 91 / 30 0 0 0 Laredo 70 100 73 98 / 10 0 0 10 Alice 68 95 70 93 / 20 0 0 0 Rockport 73 87 75 87 / 40 0 0 0 Cotulla 67 97 70 98 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 70 94 71 91 / 30 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 75 88 77 87 / 40 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ANM LONG TERM....NP AVIATION...JSL/86