FXUS64 KCRP 051938 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 238 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)... A weak mid to upper level trough to our north will continue to push across South Texas tonight, with the axis to our east by mid-morning Friday. Greatest energy and favorable dynamics look to focus to our northeast, but with a few local vorticity maximums draping across, high PWATs of over 2.0" still intact along with the vicinity of a decaying frontal boundary and interactions with outflow boundaries, kept isolated to scattered convection tonight. In addition, there are indications of a low-level jet and inverted trough extending from Mexico into the Rio Grande Plains to contribute to convection development. Believe most of the convection will be focused over the western half of the CWA. Lows range from the mid 70s inland to lower 80s along the coast. Although the upper level trough pushes east of our area and ridging builds in on Friday, moisture remains climatologically high (over 75th percentile) and surface moisture convergence along with surface heating and the afternoon sea breeze will keep isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the area. Greatest coverage is expected over the Victoria Crossroads. What's left of the frontal boundary will likely dissipate or move northward through the day. A tad warmer highs are expected on Friday as skies become partly cloudy, ranging from the low to mid 90s. Heat indices will be a concern again as dewpoints remain high, with maximum afternoon heat index values ranging from 105 to 109 across much of South Texas. A few places may exceed 110 briefly, that may warrant a Heat Advisory. A few showers and thunderstorms may linger from the sea breeze over the Coastal Plains and western CWA in the early evening on Friday, followed by drier conditions overnight as PWATs decrease below 2.0" (near normal). Lows remain near normal, in the mid 70s inland to lower 80s along the coast. && .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... The extended features a return to more typical August weather as our usual summertime ridge parks itself over the region. Rain chances are minimal through much of the extended, with limited moisture and upper ridging. Some marginal chances remain over the middle Texas coast and Victoria Crossroads. Heat indices will be the main concern for next week, with widespread values between 105 and 109. Parts of the western brush country and the southern Coastal Bend may well see heat indices above 110, and advisories may be needed for those areas. && .MARINE... A decaying frontal boundary and lingering moisture will contribute to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight through Friday night. Drier conditions are expected heading into the weekend as high pressure settles in. Weak onshore flow tonight through Friday will strengthen to weak to moderate Friday night. A weak to moderate onshore flow Saturday will become moderate Saturday night, then continue moderate into early next week. Drier conditions with little to no precipitation is expected over the weekend and into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 92 76 93 79 / 30 30 20 10 0 Victoria 75 91 76 93 77 / 30 40 30 10 0 Laredo 75 95 76 99 77 / 40 30 20 0 0 Alice 74 95 74 97 75 / 40 30 20 10 0 Rockport 79 91 81 92 82 / 30 30 20 10 0 Cotulla 76 95 76 98 77 / 40 30 20 0 0 Kingsville 76 94 76 96 77 / 30 30 20 10 0 Navy Corpus 81 91 82 91 82 / 20 30 20 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ EMF/94...SHORT TERM JV/71...LONG TERM