FXUS64 KFWD 261058 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 558 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: The northern cluster of storms mentioned below has maintained its intensity overnight and is currently moving across the Red River. While the strongest storms should remain in Oklahoma, an isolated severe storm will be possible over the next few hours. In addition to this, training storms may lead to localized flooding within our Red River counties. The southern complex mentioned below struggled to organize into anything more than a few showers due to strong convective inhibition. The cap is projected to weaken over the next few hours, which should allow for storms to blossom across most of the eastern half of the forecast area by mid-late morning. Bonnette Previous Discussion: /Through Friday Night/ A period of active weather will unfold early this morning and continue for the next few days. Thunderstorms developed last night over the Caprock Escarpment and have moved east-northeast through the pre-dawn hours. As of this writing, there are two distinct areas we're watching...one is currently near Guthrie and another is west of San Angelo. The northern cluster will have the highest severe potential, with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats. This cluster may skirt across our far northwestern counties early this morning, but a bulk of the activity should remain to our north and northwest. The southernmost cluster struggled to organize for most of the night, but should blossom as it moves east into more positively buoyant air. We expect it to move into our forecast area near sunrise and approach the I-35 corridor near the morning commute. Storm coverage should increase as the cluster moves into and east of the I-35 corridor once it taps into ongoing low-level warm advection and erodes the capping that currently overspreads the region. We expect a blossoming of loosely-organized convection east of I-35 this morning continuing into the afternoon, slowly moving east this afternoon. There will be a low severe threat with this activity, with large hail being the main threat and a lower threat of damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat will be highest to our east and northeast, but it is non-zero in our area. There is also a risk of flooding this morning into the early afternoon. Low confidence about the coverage of storms precludes issuance of a flood watch...but isolated instances of minor flooding or urban flash flooding will be possible if training storms develop. The aforementioned activity will largely take place along/ahead of a leading shortwave trough. On the surface, a dryline currently over West Texas is expected to move into our forecast area this afternoon. The boundary is forecast to stall within ~25 miles of Montague, Mineral Wells, and Goldthwaite. The morning activity will stabilize the airmass...but clearing early in the afternoon may provide enough recovery for isolated storms to develop along the boundary late in the afternoon. Any storms that are able to develop will be capable of becoming discrete supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and possibly a tornado. This is a conditional severe threat, with our confidence of any storm developing ~20%. Any storms should weaken as they move east of the dryline into more stable air and dissipate after sunset. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /Issued 313 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ /Saturday Onward/ Large hail, damaging winds, a few tornadoes and flash flooding will all be a threat Saturday and Sunday as 2 rounds of storms are possible. Round 1 - Saturday Afternoon The severe weather threat during the day on Saturday will remain conditional, and it's quite possible we see no storms until the evening hours as the main trough inches closer to our region (more on that below). The thermodynamic and kinematic environment atop our region suggests there will be a threat for severe weather, **should storms develop**. With a highly unstable atmosphere, steep mid- level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear, any storm would likely exhibit rotating updrafts that could produce large hail, damaging winds and even a few tornadoes. There continues to be some question as to the strength of the capping inversion, especially in the afternoon. Should the cap remain fairly strong, storms are unlikely to develop. However, a weak or non-existent cap would allow for updrafts to quickly strengthen should there be a source of lift. With the strongest forcing for ascent still across NM and far W Texas during the day, we'll have to rely on daytime heating for any storm development. More low-level clouds would likely to delay or inhibit afternoon convection. The inverse is also true...breaks in the clouds would increase the potential for storms to develop. If storms develop, any convection that persists into the late afternoon/evening hours will see an heightened potential for a tornado or two. We'll have to continue to monitor the higher resolution guidance as confidence in afternoon convection remains low. Round 2 - Saturday Night - Sunday Confidence in thunderstorms impacting North and Central Texas Saturday night is high as strong forcing for ascent moves closer to our region. With increasing southerly flow, moisture content will be on the rise overnight. A highly unstable atmosphere, strong low-level shear and increasing forcing for ascent will lead to the development of severe thunderstorms along a dryline. With the dryline just west of our region around sunset, convective initiation is likely to occur just outside of our area. This activity, although initially supercellular in nature, will merge in to a line of storms that will sweep eastward across much of our region. The line of storms is likely to be N-S oriented, moving eastward through the early Sunday morning hours. Damaging wind gusts and large hail would be the main hazards. However, with 40+ knots of 0-3km shear in place, there will be a low threat for QLCS tornadoes. Any segment of the line that gains a more NW-SE orientation will be able to maximize the available vorticity, increasing the potential for a quick spin-up. Additionally, there will be a risk for heavy rainfall across portions of North Texas. The risk for flash flooding will be highest along the Red River, where a few locations may pick up as much 3+ inches of rain in a short period of time. Given the nocturnal nature of this event, it's important to pay attention while driving as flooded roads are much harder to spot at night. Remember, if you encounter a flooded road, Turn Around, Don't Drown. By sunrise Sunday, the I-35 corridor is likely going to be experiencing the line of thunderstorms. There will be a continued threat for large hail and damaging winds. By this time, slightly weaker low-level shear will be in place, slightly reducing the tornado potential. Nonetheless, an isolated embedded tornado cannot be ruled out. The dryline will stall before exiting our region, then retreat northwestward through the day. This will keep North and Central Texas in a moist environment with additional storm chances in the afternoon. The severe weather threat Sunday will mainly be along and east of I-35, where instability will be the highest. Monday Onward Deep southerly flow will continue across the region, keeping the potential for diurnally driven convection alive Monday through Wednesday. Compact impulses will be moving overhead, leading to occasional showers and storms. Weak shear each day will likely keep the severe weather threat low, however, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out. The main hazards would be small hail and gusty winds. There remains fairly good agreement that a cold front will be pushing southward across the Plains, arriving to our region Thursday afternoon. With plenty of moisture expected, we'll have to monitor the parameter space as yet another severe day is possible. Details in timing/hazards will become more clear in the coming days. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ We have maintained VCTS and a TEMPO for TS at the D10 and ACT terminals in the 12Z TAFs, but our confidence of this is waning. Forecast soundings and CAM guidance continues to point toward an increase of convective activity near the airports over the next few hours, but we will reassess when our morning sounding data starts populating in the next 30 mins to hour. If storms develop, this likely will not be a "one and done" storm event, meaning redevelopment after the initial storms will be likely before all convection moves east early this afternoon. Improving flight conditions are expected after the storms move east. There is a 15% chance of additional isolated storms developing late in the day, but most of this activity should remain west of the TAF terminals. Another surge of MVFR stratus is expected tonight. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 71 80 66 77 / 70 10 30 80 70 Waco 79 71 82 66 74 / 50 20 20 60 80 Paris 76 69 80 66 74 / 90 20 30 60 90 Denton 81 70 80 64 77 / 70 10 50 90 70 McKinney 78 70 80 66 75 / 80 10 30 80 80 Dallas 81 71 81 67 76 / 70 10 30 80 80 Terrell 77 70 81 67 74 / 70 10 20 60 80 Corsicana 76 71 82 69 76 / 60 10 20 50 80 Temple 80 71 82 67 75 / 50 20 20 50 80 Mineral Wells 86 69 79 63 80 / 50 20 50 90 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$