FXUS64 KLCH 261940
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
240 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows high pressure at the surface and aloft dominating the
SE U.S. this afternoon, with unseasonably hot conditions there.
For our region, expect the western side of this ridge to continue
providing south to southeast winds off the Gulf, with mainly fair
weather cumulus noted on visible satellite imagery and no
precipitation on radar. Temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90
this afternoon only slightly above normal for this time of year.
Dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s yielding heat index values
in the mid to upper 90s.

Not much change expected through Memorial Day, with perhaps a
little more cloud cover over SE TX as the western edge of the
ridge aloft erodes with the approaching upper level trough. Some
guidance shows perhaps some light showers developing over this
region, but chances will likely remain 10-14%, less further east.
The pressure gradient will increase by afternoon, which will lead
to slightly higher southeast winds by mid to late afternoon, but
below lake wind advisory levels.

Further erosion of the ridge aloft will take place Tuesday and Wednesday
as the upper level trough moves slowly east. Thus, around 20-30% 
chance of afternoon showers & thunderstorms will continue. The 
upper level trough will make its closest approach late Wednesday 
night through Thursday morning, giving highers chances of showers 
and thunderstorms. Not expecting a prolonged precipitation event 
as experiences earlier this month. Diminished precipitation chances
expected by Friday into next weekend as the ridge over the Gulf 
is expected to become re-established over the area.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will be the main influence
for the remainder of the holiday weekend. Expect light south to
southeast winds today through early on Memorial Day. Expect
increasing south to southeast winds by Monday afternoon through 
Wednesday as the pressure gradient over the Western Gulf increases.
Expect a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms for Tuesday
and Wednesday, with increased chances expected late Wednesday 
into Thursday.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  90  70  90 /   0  10  10  20 
LCH  73  90  75  88 /   0  10  10  30 
LFT  72  92  74  91 /   0  10  10  10 
BPT  74  88  76  86 /   0  10  10  30 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08