FXUS64 KLIX 052032 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 332 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday Night A remarkably dry and "cooler" day today compared to the last few...weeks. With a front over the coastal waters and northwest flow behind an upper trough, lows last night got down to the mid 60s in many locations. Under full sun today, highs have been able to get back to the upper 80s to near 90. But with dew points in the lower to mid 60s, it doesn't feel too bad. PW values on this morning's sounding broke the record for the lowest PW values on record for this day. The pattern is going to start to shift as the ridge moves east and the next trough approaches. The stationary front offshore will also start to push north Friday night into Saturday. By Friday afternoon, PW values will be back up to 1.5 inches as a more southerly flow returns. All of this really means is that chances of rain start to make a return. Friday should stay relatively dry as we are stuck between the ridge and the approaching trough. Saturday is when POPs get back to the 50% range as the front moves north into the area and the shortwave with the trough moves through. As with any summer chance of rain, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible. Highs Fri/Sat remain similar to Thu, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows will warm back to the lower to mid 70s. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday Night Mid level high pressure starts to build westward from the Atlantic starting on Sunday and remains across the southeast states through Thursday. Aloft, a weak high pressure will be centered over the south. Generally southeast flow is expected through the week which will increase moisture values. While there is no large scale forcing present, no fronts and really no major shortwaves, pops will be higher Sunday due to the lingering boundary. They stay near 50% percent through the week just due to lake/sea breeze boundaries and their outflow boundaries. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in all these storms due to very weak steering flow. POPs may still be slightly high for Wed/Thu due to the fact that we aren't sure how much that upper ridge will suppress the POPs. The height increases with the ridge will push highs back to the lower 90s through the long term in most areas and lows will be back to the mid 70s. Heat Advisories and possibly Excessive Heat Warnings are possible once again next week. Heat index values will be above 105-110 Monday through Thursday with many areas possibly seeing heat index values greater than 112 degrees. && .AVIATION...(valid through 12z Fri)... VFR conditions and winds less than 6 knots are expected through the TAF period. There's a low chance of having scattered clouds around 3500 feet at MSY tomorrow morning but the chances were too low to include in the TAFs. && .MARINE... A stationary front will remain over the coastal waters through Friday before moving north. High pressure builds into the region this weekend and into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 70 90 70 92 / 0 20 10 20 BTR 70 90 71 92 / 0 10 10 30 ASD 71 91 74 93 / 0 30 10 40 MSY 76 92 77 94 / 0 30 20 40 GPT 74 90 74 91 / 10 30 20 40 PQL 73 90 74 92 / 10 30 20 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$