FXUS64 KMAF 102207 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 507 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 WV imagery shows the upper trough has retreated to southern Nevada over the past 24 hours, maintaining southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Closer to home, a good swath of stratus is backed up against the higher terrain, keeping a lid on afternoon highs. Tonight, the dryline is forecast to be west of KELP, w/surface dewpoints in the 50s most locations. Convection is expected to be ongoing over the lower Trans Pecos as surface winds veer to upslope easterly. Meanwhile, the upper trough is forecast to finally begin ejecting eastward, to the Four Corners by 00Z Sunday. Models depict shortwaves calving off the base of the trough over the next 24 hours, and these will combine w/large scale ascent to develop convection out west, building east overnight. Saturday, widespread convection is expected, especially as the old frontal boundary is forecast to cross the river back into the CWA. Models continue to depict deep-layer shear 40-60kts, w/mid-level laps rates steepening the farther west one goes, so a few severe cells cannot be ruled out. Model soundings continue to forecast PWATs increasing to over 1.25" at KMAF, around 2.5 std devs above the average of 0.72". Unfortunately, better QPFs don't favor the higher terrain where it's needed most, but beggars can't be choosers, and we'll take whatever we can get. Highs across the lower terrain confined to stratus will be pathetic, over 15F below normal, but highs over the mountains and along the border should be much more respectable. Saturday night, the upper trough is forecast to move only to central Colorado by 12Z Sunday, so convection will be slow to taper off, but should weaken overnight. Cloud cover and return flow will keep overnight lows above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 By 12z Sunday, we'll be on the tail-end of our precipitation chances as the upper low slides eastward throughout the day. Rainfall chances taper from west to east through the morning and early afternoon with clearing skies building in from the west as the back- side of the trough brings subsidence and drier air. Temperatures rebound nicely back to near average with the return on sunshine on Sunday, with a gradual warming trend through Tuesday with an upper ridge passing overhead. This ridge also keeps our weather relatively quiet with the dryline backed up against the higher terrain/Pecos River until the next system approaches on Wednesday. With the dryline this far west and the approaching upper trough, afternoon thunderstorm development is possible. As for severe chances, currently, the ensemble clusters have a 50-70% chance for CAPE > 1000J/kg and bulk shear > 20kts so it is something to keep an eye on over the next few days. A cold front is set to accompany this trough Wednesday into Thursday, serving as an additional lifting mechanism for storms but also sending temperatures back down below average for the latter half of the week. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 500 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Messy TAFs are on tap for the next 24 hours, as post-frontal stratus lingers. Surface winds will slowly veer over the next 24 hours, picking up a little Saturday as return flow resumes. Cigs will come down overnight, and a little more during the day Saturday. IFR cigs are possible KMAF/KHOB/KINK near the end of the forecast period, while other terminals should stay MVFR or better. Convection is expected at times Saturday most terminals, and we've taken a stab at times based on the latest NBM. These times will shift a little overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 63 70 61 82 / 20 80 50 60 Carlsbad 61 72 59 86 / 40 50 40 0 Dryden 68 81 68 92 / 20 40 50 20 Fort Stockton 64 78 65 91 / 20 60 40 20 Guadalupe Pass 58 70 57 78 / 40 50 30 0 Hobbs 59 66 57 84 / 30 70 50 10 Marfa 56 85 53 84 / 30 60 30 10 Midland Intl Airport 62 67 61 84 / 20 70 40 30 Odessa 64 68 63 85 / 20 70 40 20 Wink 61 74 61 89 / 30 70 40 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...44