FXUS64 KMEG 100049
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
749 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 748 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Updated to cancel the Severe Thunderstorm Watch in northeast 
Mississippi. Also lowered pops overnight slightly. Storms/showers 
should remain to our south. Enjoy cooler and dry conditions for 
the next few days. 

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Cool and dry conditions are expected through the weekend, barring
a few scattered showers and thunderstorms late tonight in 
portions of north Mississippi. Showers and thunderstorms return
early next week as two slow moving cold fronts approach the area
back-to-back. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Current GOES satellite depicts a cirrus shield blowing off from
ongoing convection over the ArkLaTex, but conditions are 
generally clear across the Mid-South. Near-normal pleasant 
temperatures and sunny skies are expected for the next several 
days as high pressure and a cooler airmass build in behind 
this morning's front. 

Despite most of the area looking high and dry, there may be a few
strong to severe thunderstorms that clip the far southern extent 
of our CWA late tonight as the aforementioned convection continues
along a shortwave across central Mississippi. However, CAMs 
indicate an extremely low coverage of storms and thus confidence 
in this is quite low. Forecast soundings for the area in the 
Marginal to Slight Risks (levels 1 and 2 out of 5, respectively) 
do indicate fairly steep lapse rates that may produce some small 
hail this afternoon, but it is likely to be a very well capped 
environment. Storms may struggle to actually tap into what limited
instability there is.

Next week, the first of two frontal systems looks to approach from
the ArkLaTex as early as Monday morning. A warm front will lift 
north and give way to scattered showers and thunderstorms
throughout the day, transitioning to a more widespread coverage as
the cold front pushes through late Monday night. After a very
brief break midweek, yet another front looks to sink down from the
northern Plains. Early indications of severe weather potential
look quite low for both systems, but we could see a grand total of
about 1-2 inches of rain over the next 7 days from these two
systems combined.

CAD 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions and north winds expected through the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...CJC