FXUS64 KMOB 020534 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1133 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024 VFR conditions continue with calm winds overnight becoming light northwesterly to northerly on Monday. /22 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Monday Night) Issued at 326 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024 Cool, dry, and sunny remains through the forecast as broad northwesterly flow continues across the area. A rather expansive upper trough will remain in place over the eastern US keeping dry northwesterly flow in place through early next week. Overall just looking at a temperature forecast with lows tonight and Monday night dropping into the low to mid 30s both nights with upper 30s along the immediate coastline. Patchy to widespread frost will likely be possible each night. Highs will be pleasant with highs in the 60s. BB/03 SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 326 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024 For the latter half of the coming week into the weekend, inconsistency is making for a challenging forecast. Looking at the synoptics, a series of shortwaves move through a shallow upper trough over the eastern Conus, passing over the Southeast. The first round of shortwaves bring increasing coverage of isentropic upglide rain showers to the forecast area late Wednesday into Thursday night. The upglide is over a cold airmass in place over the Southeast north of a developing surface boundary near the northern Gulf coast. This energy moves off and more shortwave energy ejecting from an upper system over the US/Mexico moves over the Southeast. Timing of this second round of energy has had the greatest inconsistency, both in the model physicals and ensembles. The slower models move the surface boundary along the coast further south over the Gulf and bring a colder airmass back over the forecast area later Thursday night through Friday due to stronger post-system northerly flow. The faster guidance keeps the forecast area under weaker northerly flow, shifting the boundary less south, whilst bring the second round of rain to the forecast area sooner Friday night. Guidance is also bringing the boundary inland over the Southeast, to varying extents over the weekend. For the forecast, have tried to go middle of the road with the forecast. Rain returns to the forecast area Wednesday night. Instability, mainly elevated, has crept east over the forecast area, so have put rumbles in the forecast for Thursday. Best upglide continues to remain west of the forecast area, thus the heavier accumulations for Wednesday nigh into Thursday night. Will have to monitor for any eastward shift. The forecast area being under drought conditions will help to temper water issues. Rain returns to the forecast area Friday night before moving out late Sunday. Ingredients for strong to marginally severe storms over the weekend are hard to pin down at this time due to the inconsistency in the guidance for this second round of passing energy. Temperatures are on a roller coaster for mid week into the weekend, with below seasonal low 50s north of Highway 84 to upper 50s south of I-10 Tuesday rises into the around 60 north of Highway 84 range to the upper 60s south of I-10 for Thursday. high Temperatures see a dip for Friday, then rise back to around to above seasonal norms for the weekend. Tuesday night sees another night of freezing temperatures over most of the forecast area, then rise into the mid/upper 30s well inland to upper 40s/around 50 closer to the coast for the rest of the week into the weekend. Even with the northerly flow shifting to southerly mid week, the magnitude of the onshore flow is not expected to be high enough for significant swell, keeping the risk of rip currents low through the week. MARINE... Issued at 326 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024 A light to moderate offshore flow is expected through early this week. Light onshore flow returns midweek. No hazards are expected. BB/03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 36 63 36 57 34 65 54 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 70 Pensacola 41 63 40 57 39 63 55 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 50 Destin 45 63 43 58 40 64 55 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 50 Evergreen 32 61 30 52 27 60 44 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 60 Waynesboro 31 61 30 52 28 60 47 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 60 Camden 30 58 28 48 25 58 44 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 60 Crestview 31 63 32 56 27 63 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob