FXUS64 KMOB 302347 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 547 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 537 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 VLIFR to LIFR ceilings and visbys prevail tonight into Tuesday due to dense fog. The fog will be slow to clear Tuesday morning and may hang on near the coast into the afternoon. /13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 415 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Lingering very isolated light showers just north of I-10 associated with weak lift along a meandering surface boundary will dissipate around sunset, followed by dry conditions through noon Tuesday. Isolated light showers will then once again redevelop along and southeast of I-65 Tuesday afternoon along the boundary aided by daytime surface heating. The main impact will be the development of dense fog overnight due to dense sea fog spreading inland with surface dewpoints remaining in at least of the low 60's. A strong signal exists tonight into Tuesday morning for dense fog across much of the area, and a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued across all of our southern zones and most eastern zones through 10 AM Tuesday. With the very moist airmass in place, temperatures fall very little overnight and only into the mid to upper 50's over far interior zones, with lower 60's elsewhere. Tuesday's high temperatures will generally reach the mid to upper 60's northwest zones and lower to middle 70's southern and eastern zones. A HIGH risk of rip currents remains in effect through tonight for coastal Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. /22 SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 415 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 An active pattern will continue through the short term as the final system in this pattern makes its way across the area on Thursday evening potentially bringing another round of heavy rainfall and strong to severe storms. Broad southwesterly flow around the western side of a broad upper ridge will continue through Wednesday. Moisture will continue to move into the area with weak shortwave ridging building temporarily overhead. Skies will remain overcast and a few showers will be possible with the weak warm advection; however, rain chances will remain lower given the subsidence from the shortwave ridge. This will quickly change as we head into Wednesday night through Thursday night as the final trough pushes in from the west. PWATS will once again increase in advance of the upper trough. There are still some timing discrepancies on the upper trough and how well the good instability moves inland. However, the overall pattern would support rainfall especially as we head later into the day on Thursday and into Thursday night. Given the overall positive nature of the trough this system will likely not be as dynamic as last weeks system; however, there is still enough deep layer shear as a rather potent upper trough glances across the northern part of the area to support some organized convection. This will be especially true as a surface cold front moves into the area Thursday night. The main question will once again be the quality of instability and will it be enough to support more organized convection; especially as the upper trough begins to lift out. For now guidance supports at least a conditional severe threat with damaging winds as the main hazard across northern areas of southern Alabama. With some model discrepancies still being ironed out we will need to monitor this potential closely over the next day or two. Given the higher PWATS and slow moving boundary, heavy rainfall will also be an issue with possible localized flooding. Temperatures will be on the warm side with warm southerly return flow continuing throughout the day Wednesday and Thursday. Expect highs to be well above normal and range in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Lows will also continue in the mid to upper 50s. Fog will also continue at least on Wednesday as winds keep the Gulf Coast Sea Fog machine rolling. BB/03 LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 415 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Deep layer northwesterly flow takes hold on Friday as the base of an upper trough slides over and east of the local area. Flow aloft then turns more zonal over the weekend. Could see a few lingering showers on Friday morning/early afternoon as the front exits the region, but overall drier and slightly cooler conditions filter into the area behind the front on Friday with temperatures topping out in the 50s for highs and falling into the 30s/lower 40s for lows. Clouds should also clear through the day Friday as the deep layer dry air slides into the area. The rain free conditions continue into early next week as a result of this pattern. Temperatures also moderate to more seasonal norms over the weekend as winds turn more easterly and surface ridging noses in from the north/northeast. /14 MARINE... Issued at 415 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Areas of dense sea fog will continue to all bays/sounds, and adjacent Coastal Waters as warm/moist advection spreads northward. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for these area through at least Tuesday morning. If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use your radar and compass. Otherwise, a light onshore flow will persist through this evening, becoming variable less than 10 knots late tonight through Tuesday evening. A light offshore flow Tuesday night and Wednesday will slowly shift back to a light to moderate onshore flow Wednesday night through Thursday prior to a cold front sweeping across the area Thursday night. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 60 72 56 69 58 74 46 57 / 0 20 10 10 0 60 70 40 Pensacola 61 72 60 71 61 75 50 60 / 0 20 20 10 10 40 80 40 Destin 63 72 63 72 64 76 54 63 / 10 20 20 10 10 30 80 50 Evergreen 57 72 55 67 56 75 44 57 / 0 20 10 10 0 70 80 40 Waynesboro 55 66 49 60 52 67 41 55 / 10 10 10 10 10 80 70 30 Camden 56 67 51 61 53 70 42 54 / 10 10 10 10 10 80 80 40 Crestview 59 75 59 73 58 78 49 61 / 10 20 20 10 10 40 80 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday for ALZ056-059-060-261>264. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for ALZ265-266. FL...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday for FLZ201-203-205. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ078-079. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ630>632-650. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ633>636-655- 670. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob