FXUS64 KOHX 190509 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1209 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 We started off cloudy this morning, but the clouds have been breaking up and we expect temps to take off into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. As temps warm, the atmosphere will destabilize with capes rising to 1000-2000 J/kg by late afternoon. This will set the stage for development of showers and thunderstorms. The first storms will form late this afternoon and evening as an impulse moves northeast from the Southern Ms Valley. This impulse will bring a first round of scattered thunderstorms starting as early as 3 PM in our western counties, with storms peaking in coverage and intensity from 7 PM to 10 PM. Later this evening, another batch of thunderstorms in the form of a weakening QLCS will come from the west ahead of a cold front. Each of these rounds of storms has the potential to produce severe wx, although latest models are not very impressive bringing shear and instability together. Generally, the greatest thunderstorm coverage and severe potential will exist west of I-65. It looks like the first batch will arrive with fairly strong cape but weak to marginal deep layer shear. A handful of warnings may bee issued for localized wind gusts over 60 mph and severe hail over 1 inch in diameter. Later in the evening, the instability wanes, but shear values will become higher as the QLCS approaches. Damaging wind gusts of 60 mph appear to be the main concern for late evening and overnight, but a tornado cannot be ruled out for our far northwest counties. The incoming band of storms may fall apart pretty quickly while encountering mediocre lapse rates and more stable surface air, possibly already worked over by early evening storms. Otherwise, a few spots may have some brief street flooding with any heavy downpours this evening. We don't expect widespread flooding problems. Showers and few leftover storms will move out Friday morning. We will be left with mostly cloudy and cooler conditions as a north breeze drops temps back to normal or a little cooler than normal. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Through the weekend, surface winds will continue to come from the north as the center of cool high pressure slides southward across the plains. Zonal flow aloft will bring a series of weak disturbances, resulting in a good deal of cloud cover through the weekend and perhaps a few light showers, mainly over our southern counties. Weekend temps will be a little cooler than normal. Temperatures will rebound Monday and Tuesday ahead of the next front and chance for showers late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 A broken line of showers and storms along a cold front continues to approach from the west. This activity will move west-to-east through the area after 06Z and through the early morning. These storms should weaken as they move through Middle TN, but SHRA is at least likely at each TAF site. Ceilings will also lower with widespread MVFR to IFR conditions likely tonight with improvement not expected until closer to 00Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 72 51 68 48 / 30 10 10 20 Clarksville 69 47 66 45 / 10 10 10 20 Crossville 70 47 64 43 / 60 10 10 20 Columbia 72 49 66 45 / 20 10 20 30 Cookeville 69 49 63 45 / 50 10 10 20 Jamestown 70 46 63 42 / 60 10 10 20 Lawrenceburg 72 51 66 47 / 30 10 20 30 Murfreesboro 72 49 67 46 / 30 10 10 30 Waverly 68 48 65 45 / 10 10 20 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....Clements