FXUS64 KOUN 290323 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1023 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Gusty afternoon winds may relax for a short period early this evening before increasing again overnight. This will keep temperatures much milder tonight as overnight lows only drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s. These strong low level winds will bring much warmer 850mb air northward into the area tomorrow. This along with building mid-level ridge will result in much warmer temperatures on Friday as the west will be pushing 80 degrees. At the same time, low level moisture will be on the increase with perhaps far northwest Oklahoma lagging a bit as a dryline takes shape across the eastern Texas panhandle into northwest Oklahoma. This will result in an area of elevated fire weather where vegetation remains more dormant and available to burn. May see an area approach wind advisory criteria from late morning into the afternoon across west central into northern Oklahoma and would not be surprised to see some gusts to 40 mph. However with abundant high clouds which may keep things just in check, plan to hold off on any headlines at this point. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 A shortwave will move through the northern Plains on Friday into Friday night. As this occurs an associated surface boundary will drop south into the area, perhaps progressing as far south as I-44 during the day Saturday. This will aid in relaxing the surface pressure gradient and diminishing wind speeds. A thermal ridge along and south of the impinging surface boundary will push temperatures Saturday afternoon into the low to middle 80s along and south of the boundary, while to the north of the boundary locations will see temperatures a few degrees cooler. This boundary will lift back north of the area Saturday night with dryline taking shape across western parts of Oklahoma southward into west Texas. Still will watch minor shortwaves translating northeast across the area Sunday afternoon in the subtropical jet for possible convective initiation along the dryline. However, currently with upper ridging remaining in place and substantial cap, chance of storms, at least during the day Sunday, appears low. Precip chances do increase Sunday night with rather deep waa developing across Oklahoma into the mid-Mississippi valley in advance of approaching long wave trough to our west. Lead wave from the long wave trough ejects northeast out of northern Mexico into the southern Plains Monday. As this occurs a surface low develops across Kansas along frontal boundary, with a dryline trailing south across western Oklahoma and western north Texas Monday morning. The dryline is forecast to advance eastward rather quickly during the day with Pacific front entering northwest Oklahoma by late afternoon. Main question is where will the dryline be located when convection develops. Models suggest the dryline will be just west of I-35 by midday with an area in vicinity of dryline becoming uncapped. Given the environment, any storm that does develop would have a chance to become severe. Some elevated fire weather may develop further west Monday afternoon as well. This activity will quickly move east of the area Monday evening with much colder air filtering south in the wake of yet another rather strong spring cold front. So after a few days on 70s and 80s will see temperatures fall back into the 50s across much of the area Tuesday. Could also see some rain showers wrap back around into northern Oklahoma on the back side of the system Friday. This cool down will be short-lived as we begin another warming trend mid-week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Gusty southerly winds will continue through tomorrow at 00z, where they will begin to relax. A few wind gusts could get up to 40 mph. LLWS will affect all TAF sites from 06Z until 15Z. Mid level clouds will begin to move into the area overnight and into tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 67 53 73 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 68 50 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 71 54 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 71 48 81 40 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 68 51 74 50 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 70 52 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...13