FXUS64 KSHV 242244 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 544 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Upper-level ridging will begin to slide overhead tonight, with the apex of the ridge centering itself by tomorrow. This will allow for afternoon highs to skyrocket, with some locations reaching the mid to upper-80s into Friday. This ridge will also temporarily "shut off" rain chances for most of the region, with the best chances for showers and thunderstorms being in our far north zones, at the tip of the ridge. However, this ridge will not be long lived, as upper-level troughing is ramping up in full force to our west, setting the stage for a multi-day severe weather event in the long-term. /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 BLUF: Severe weather and heavy rain in the long-term. Much weather, many words, long discussion. Wow. By Friday morning, a potent low pressure will already be working its way into the upper Midwest, with a cold front trailing down into central Texas. This low and cold front will be the catalyst for our first round of severe weather Friday afternoon, particularly along the I-30 corridor. The environment overhead will be incredibly primed, with peak instability values over 2000 J/Kg, and mid-level lapse rates over 7.0 C/Km. Any storms that are able to sustain themselves and become more robust will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Forecast hodographs at face value appear to be supportive of a tornado threat, but shear values aren't all there to truly support one. However, given the hodograph curvature, a tornado threat can't entirely be discounted. The one "knock" against this event, if you will, is that the best forcing is incredibly offset with the low pressure way off to the north. A similar setup will occur into the afternoon hours on Saturday in the S. Plains, with a small section of our area highlighted in another Slight Risk. This severe threat seems to be the least "worrisome" of the three, as the low pressure will take off to the NE like a rocket, leaving very little room for our region to see significant impacts of the severe variety. Regardless, storms here will also be capable of large hail and damaging winds. The last of our severe chances looks to occur during the evening and overnight hours on Sunday, when the trough finally gets a solid kick in the pants and ejects east. Here, the environment overhead will be rather similar to what's overhead on Friday. However, it looks like shear values from a tornado standpoint are slightly better here, when compared to Friday. Again, the best forcing looks to be slightly farther to the north, but that doesn't mean the whole event will be spoiled because of it. In turn, all modes of severe weather will be possible, but damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats. The last thing worth mentioning here in this endless long-term discussion will be forecast rainfall amounts into the middle of next week. Given the extended periods of rainfall, widespread 3-5 inches of rain are possible down to the I-20 corridor. Given heavier convection, higher amounts are certainly not out of the question, particularly in our northern zones. /44/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 537 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 VFR conditions prevailing currently but a mix of low and mid cloudy ceilings were noted across a good portion of our airspace this late afternoon. A weak stationary frontal boundary was located just north of the I-20 Corridor late this afternoon and this boundary will likely wash out or return back north during this TAF period. A few spotty showers were noted along and mainly north of the I-20 Corridor as well but these should dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Did introduce the possibility of MVFR ceilings returning to the TYR terminal towards sunrise and IFR ceilings at the LFK terminal along with some brief reduction in VSBY at the LFK terminal as well before ceilings and VSBYS return to VFR levels by late morning into the afternoon. Otherwise there will be an increase in mid-level and high ceilings as well during this TAF period. Look for light winds across all but our NE TX terminals where SE to SSE winds below 10kts will prevail overnight. Through the day Thursday, look for a tightening pressure gradient with S winds sustained near 10-14kts with gusts upwards of 20-24kts across all but the ELD and MLU terminal locations. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 65 85 69 85 / 0 0 0 30 MLU 63 84 65 85 / 0 10 0 10 DEQ 62 81 64 76 / 20 20 20 80 TXK 65 85 68 82 / 10 10 10 60 ELD 61 83 64 83 / 10 10 0 20 TYR 65 81 69 81 / 0 0 0 70 GGG 64 83 69 83 / 0 0 0 50 LFK 62 84 69 84 / 0 0 0 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...13