FXUS64 KSJT 071919 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 219 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Well-above normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday. Much drier air has filtered into our area today with weak north to northwest winds. A surface low will develop into southwestern Kansas by this evening. As a result, light winds will switch around to the south late this afternoon and evening, and continue overnight. This setup will result in low-level moisture return, with low cloud development expected late tonight into mid-morning Wednesday across much of the southern half of our area into the Heartland. For late this afternoon and early evening, a low possibility of a couple of isolated showers and thunderstorms exists in our southeastern counties, where drier air only partially filters in and the moisture makes a more immediate return. That area has a conditional possibility of a strong to severe storm, given the forecast instability and vertical wind profiles. With warm and humid conditions overnight across our area, lows will range from the mid 60s northwest to lower 70s southeast. On Wednesday, an upper low will centered be over South Dakota/ Nebraska, with a trough elongating west-southwest into the Great Basin. A surface low will develop over the Texas Panhandle, and with westerly low to mid-level flow, a surface trough/dryline will advance east across our area. This will bring an intrusion of much drier air. With ample sunshine and 850mb temperatures climbing to 23- 26 deg C, afternoon highs will be well-above normal. For a large part of our area south of I-20, expect highs to be in the lower to mid 90s, with a few upper 90s in some of the Concho Valley and the Northwest Hill Country around Junction. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Unseasonably warm temperatures through late Wednesday, then a pattern change to cooler conditions from thursday through the weekend. Weak ridging and fairly persistent zonal flow aloft, along with dry and warm west to southwest flow at the surface, will keep above normal temperatures across much of West Central Texas through late Wednesday. A cold front begin to track southeastward through the area Thursday, with little to no precipitation expected given the dry nature of this system. However, a shower/thunderstorms or two could potentially develop across the far southeastern portions of our area during the afternoon and evening hours on Thursday. Brought some slight chances into the forecast during the day Thursday to show the possibility of a few showers or thunderstorms developing over the Northwest Hill country and portions of the Heartland. Once the front passes through the area, and north to northeasterly winds take hold over the area through the end of the week, we will see some cooler temperatures remain across West Central Texas through much of the weekend. High temperatures on Friday are expected to only reach into the mid 70s to lower 80s, and gradually warm through Monday reaching back into the 80s across the area. With low level east to southeasterly flow proceeding into the weekend, moisture is expected to start returning to the area, potentially generating a few showers and thunderstorms late Friday through Sunday. Overall, rain chances will pick up over west central Texas Saturday afternoon and continuing through the late afternoon/early evening on Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Skies will be generally clear this afternoon through early tonight. A scattered cumulus field could develop over far southern and southeastern parts of our area late this afternoon into early evening. While the possibility of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out for that same area, low confidence in occurrence and placement precludes a specific mention for our southern TAF sites. Expect low cloud development over the southern third of our area and the Heartland (east- central counties) late tonight into mid-morning Wednesday. To account for this, carrying MVFR ceilings at our southern terminals. The KSJT TAF site will be near the the northern edge of the low cloud field. At this time, have a Tempo group for MVFR ceiling at KSJT between 12Z and 15Z. Low cloud cover should break up in the mid- to-late morning with generally clear skies expected area wide by midday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 68 91 59 81 / 0 0 0 10 San Angelo 68 97 60 91 / 0 0 0 10 Junction 71 98 64 95 / 0 0 0 20 Brownwood 69 93 61 84 / 0 0 0 20 Sweetwater 65 90 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 67 95 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 71 93 63 87 / 10 0 0 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...19