FXUS65 KABQ 191121 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 521 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 122 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024 A cold front that moved through eastern NM overnight brought much higher humidity and gusty winds. Temperatures will rebound behind the front today except for the southeast plains where highs will remain in the 60s and lower 70s. A reinforcing cold front will move into the region tonight with much colder air across eastern NM Saturday. Highs will be 20 to 30 degrees below normal. Patchy fog, drizzle, light rain, and a few showers are expected from the central mountain chain across the plains. Gusty canyons winds are likely again tonight in the Rio Grande Valley. Temperatures will warm up again Sunday after clouds and fog burn off in the morning. Meanwhile, western NM will remain dry, warm, and breezy through the weekend. Monday and Tuesday will remain dry and breezy for the entire area followed by the next moist cold front across eastern NM for Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 122 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Backdoor front/boundary pushing west of the Rio Grande Valley early this morning. East wind gusts to 35 kt here at the Sunport so far this morning will gradually weaken through the early morning. Low clouds across eastern NM will hang on through the morning hours before gradually dissipating by early afternoon. The east winds into the Rio Grande Valley and the low clouds in the eastern half will return once again tonight, potentially with an east wind that is slightly stronger with more in the way of upslope stratus clouds. An approaching short-wave trough in the zonal flow aloft will help draw in the cooler, more moist air to the east, also resulting in a few elevated showers or thunderstorms near the TX line late tonight into Saturday morning. Another round of elevated convection is possible from the east slopes of the central mountain chain eastward Saturday afternoon as the above mentioned short wave moves through and interacts with the low level Gulf moisture. Thanks to the backdoor front, high temperatures will be below average values for mid April in eastern NM both today and well below Saturday with near average highs in the RGV and above average west. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 122 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Eastern NM will remain socked in with low stratus, patchy fog, light rain, drizzle, and a few showers Saturday night. Canyon winds will taper off in the RGV as the pressure gradient relaxes and surface winds become more south/southeast over eastern NM. Low clouds will erode Sunday morning across the east while drier northwest flow invades the area. Temps will warm several degrees across the east but still be roughly 10 to 15F below normal. The west will remain dry and warm Sunday. A weak perturbation in zonal flow aloft will cross the region on Monday and allow a few afternoon showers to develop near the high terrain. Winds across eastern NM will become south/southwest once again with temps warming 10 to 20F over Sunday's highs. Southwest flow over western NM will keep temps above normal with very low humidity. Another surge of low level return flow will attempt to enter eastern NM Monday night with more low clouds. This boundary may set the stage for a few showers again on Tuesday along the central mt chain. Western NM will remain warm, dry, and breezy. A more pronounced surge of low level return flow with patchy fog, light rain, and some showers may enter eastern NM Tuesday night with gap winds possible in the RGV Wednesday morning. An upper level trough approaching from the west may sharpen a dryline over eastern NM with perhaps some thunderstorms across the plains while strong southwest winds take over central and western NM. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 442 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Areas to widespread MVFR and IFR conditions in low clouds behind a backdoor cold front will continue to expand early this morning, mainly over northeast and east central areas. Low clouds will likely work their way between the Sandia and southern Sangre de Cristo mountains, impacting KSAF with low clouds at times this morning. The low clouds will gradually dissipate over central and eastern NM during the early afternoon, but the low level Gulf moisture will move back in with another round of low clouds along the east slopes of the central mountain chain eastward tonight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are then forecast to develop for the eastern plains late tonight into Saturday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 122 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024 A backdoor cold front is bringing low level Gulf moisture into eastern and central portions of the state this morning. The moisture in the Rio Grande Valley will be scoured out this afternoon but not before resulting in moderate overnight RH recoveries. Gulf moisture hangs on in eastern NM through today and with a weak wave moving through NM late tonight and Saturday, showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly near the TX line late tonight and along and east of the central mountain chain Saturday afternoon. High temperatures will trend below average for eastern areas today and especially Saturday while central NM remains near average and western areas above average for mid April. A warming and drying trend is forecast for Sunday and Monday with another backdoor front expected to bring shower and thunderstorm chances to northeast NM Monday night and Tuesday. Elsewhere, light winds and dry air will remain the rule until winds begin increasing ahead of the next Pacific storm system on Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 77 45 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 74 38 74 33 / 5 0 20 0 Cuba............................ 72 42 69 36 / 0 0 20 0 Gallup.......................... 76 38 75 36 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 72 40 70 38 / 0 0 5 0 Grants.......................... 77 38 74 35 / 0 0 5 0 Quemado......................... 76 41 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 77 47 69 41 / 0 0 10 0 Datil........................... 74 43 69 41 / 0 0 5 0 Reserve......................... 80 37 77 38 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 83 46 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 68 36 66 32 / 5 0 40 10 Los Alamos...................... 70 45 63 40 / 0 5 30 5 Pecos........................... 71 41 56 35 / 0 20 40 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 67 45 61 40 / 5 20 50 20 Red River....................... 63 31 58 29 / 10 30 70 30 Angel Fire...................... 64 32 54 26 / 5 30 50 20 Taos............................ 72 38 65 31 / 5 20 40 10 Mora............................ 71 37 55 32 / 5 40 40 20 Espanola........................ 78 46 71 39 / 0 10 30 5 Santa Fe........................ 72 46 62 39 / 0 10 30 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 76 46 64 38 / 0 5 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 78 50 66 45 / 0 0 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 79 48 67 44 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 81 47 69 41 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 80 48 69 44 / 0 0 5 0 Belen........................... 82 48 74 40 / 0 0 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 80 48 70 43 / 0 0 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 81 47 72 39 / 0 0 10 0 Corrales........................ 81 48 71 43 / 0 0 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 81 49 73 39 / 0 0 10 0 Placitas........................ 75 48 65 43 / 0 0 20 0 Rio Rancho...................... 80 49 72 44 / 0 0 10 0 Socorro......................... 87 51 76 44 / 0 0 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 71 40 59 40 / 0 5 20 5 Tijeras......................... 73 42 62 38 / 0 5 20 5 Edgewood........................ 75 40 60 36 / 0 5 20 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 77 39 60 34 / 0 5 10 5 Clines Corners.................. 72 37 49 34 / 0 20 20 10 Mountainair..................... 76 41 60 37 / 0 0 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 77 43 60 36 / 0 0 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 80 49 70 42 / 0 0 30 10 Ruidoso......................... 73 44 57 38 / 0 5 50 20 Capulin......................... 63 31 46 31 / 20 60 30 20 Raton........................... 69 36 53 32 / 20 50 30 20 Springer........................ 71 37 52 34 / 10 50 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 70 38 51 34 / 5 40 30 10 Clayton......................... 61 36 47 33 / 5 50 30 30 Roy............................. 66 37 48 34 / 5 60 40 20 Conchas......................... 72 41 51 39 / 0 60 40 20 Santa Rosa...................... 70 41 50 38 / 0 40 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 71 39 49 37 / 0 60 50 20 Clovis.......................... 68 42 50 38 / 0 70 80 40 Portales........................ 68 41 51 37 / 0 70 80 40 Fort Sumner..................... 72 43 53 39 / 0 50 50 20 Roswell......................... 75 51 61 47 / 0 20 50 30 Picacho......................... 72 44 57 40 / 0 5 40 20 Elk............................. 76 43 61 39 / 0 5 40 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...33