FXUS65 KPSR 080510 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1010 PM MST Tue May 7 2024 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation && .SYNOPSIS... Near normal temperatures will continue through Thursday with elevated wind speeds expected today and tomorrow. Temperatures will warm to above normal on Friday with a gradual warming trend expected through at least the beginning of next week, where afternoon high temperatures will near tripple digits across portions of the lower deserts. Dry conditions continue into next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of this afternoon, mid-level water vapor reveals a large scale trough over western CONUS with the low pressure system, associated with this trough, moving into the Dakota's. 850mb analysis reveals a shortwave trough moving into southeastern California and western Arizona. This shortwave trough is tightening the pressure gradient overhead which is leading to some elevated wind gusts this afternoon that will continue into the early evening. Wind gusts will generally be around 20-25 mph in the lower deserts with gusts up to 30mph possible in the high terrain to the north and east of the Phoenix Metro. This shortwave trough will continue to move southeastward overnight and bring a weak cold front into the Lower Colorado River valley. Behind the front, occasional wind gusts of 30-35 mph are possible in portions of southeastern California and far western Arizona, with gusts up around 40 mph possible along the ridge tops. Elsewhere, wind gusts of 20-25 mph are expected Wednesday afternoon and early evening. The aforementioned low pressure system will retrograde back towards the southwest over the next couple of days, which will keep our afternoon high temperatures near or slightly below normal through Thursday. Ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement that the low pressure system will settle to our north by Friday and remain fairly stationary into the beginning of next week, although it is expected to gradually weaken. This will allow for afternoon high temperatures to go back above normal on Friday with a slight warming trend into the beginning of next week. The lower deserts are expected to see high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s, with portions of the lower deserts nearing tripple digits by the start of next week. The higher terrain areas are forecasted to see high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s and low 90s. Even though our area will be under the influence of this trough into next week, dry conditions are expected to continue. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0510Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No significant weather issues will exist through Wednesday night under clear skies. Forecast confidence is good that the conversion to the typical overnight easterly wind will occur somewhat later than usual, while a return to westerlies should settle over the metro by noon Wednesday. Gusty winds 20-25kt should affect terminals again Wednesday afternoon before relaxing mid evening Wednesday. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Gusty winds associated with a frontal passage late tonight and Wednesday morning will be the primary weather issue under clear skies. Wind directions will favor W/SW tonight before abruptly shifting to north with fropa late night/early morning. Gusts 30-35kt may sweep through KBLH around sunrise with a chance of at least lofted dust immediately behind the front through mid/late morning. There is around a 20% chance of surface visibilities dropping into MVFR category with the strongest gusts though confidence and potential duration is too low to include in this TAF package. Gusts should be far more limited or absent at KIPL. Wind speeds will generally weaken through the daylight hours with a loss of gustiness by sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Breezy conditions are expected today and tomorrow. Wind gusts around 20-25 mph are expected areawide this afternoon and early evening. A cold front will cause wind gusts of 30-35 mph (and around 40 mph along the ridgetops) in portions of southeastern California and far western Arizona tomorrow morning and into the early afternoon. Elsewhere wind gusts of 20-25 mph are expected during the afternoon and early evening hours. Wind gusts will return to more seasonal values (afternoon gusts up around 20 mph) areawide for the latter half of the week. MinRHs, for the rest of this week, will be in the 5-10% range across the lower deserts and in the 10-15% range across the higher terrain. Overnight recoveries will be in the 20-40% range. Temperatures will be near, or slightly below, normal through Thursday and return to above normal on Friday and through the weekend. Dry conditions will persist into next week. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Berislavich AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Kuhlman