FXUS66 KEKA 302317 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 317 PM PST Mon Jan 30 2023 .SYNOPSIS...Dry cold weather will prevail across Northwest California through mid week. Temperatures will then moderate as wet and windier weather returns to the region Thursday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...High amplitude ridge aloft extending toward western British Columbia will slowly move southeastward over the forecast area tonight through Wednesday. This will ensure dry and stable weather conditions with slowly moderating temperatures. The warming aloft will result in moderation of cold temperatures, primarily for the upper elevations and ridges. Dew points will remain quite low (10-25F) and with lighter winds and prevailing clear skies, overnight temperatures will once again plummet into the upper teens to mid 20's in the inland valleys and below freezing (near 30F) for coastal areas by early Tuesday morning. Even with warming aloft tonight, temperatures will probably be colder in some locations where easterly winds picked up during the early morning hours on Monday. Multi-model ensemble guidance (NBM) probabilities for minimums of 29F or less for coastal area have diminished to 20-30%. A hard freeze is still possible early Tuesday morning. At this time, we have addressed this in a weather story graphic and social media posts. Continued warming aloft along with higher dewpoints and cloud cover will yield milder temperatures for the latter portion of the week and into the weekend. A series of shortwave troughs and surface fronts will bring some rain and possibly bouts of gusty southerly winds Thursday through Sunday. Rain with the first front is expected Thursday evening and overnight. Ensemble based guidance has been trending windier, with possible advisory gusts to 50 mph for the higher elevations and coastal headlands. Overall, not a major rain producer with 24 hours totals around an inch or so for the King Range and SW Humboldt County at places like Honeydew. Broad ridging later on Friday into Saturday will likely yield a period of drying with lower probabilities for precipitation. A second shortwave trough will begin to impact the area for the remainder of the weekend with potentially greater amounts of beneficial rain area wide and gusty winds. Ensemble clusters indicate progressive flow pattern with ridging building in the wake of this second shortwave. There is still some variance with the timing and precipitation may linger into Monday. && .AVIATION...Clear skies and VFR visibilities are forecast to continue today. Gusty northerly winds along the Redwood Coast this afternoon will diminish into the evening. Some hires guidance is indicating light mist/haze forming late this evening in the Humboldt Bay region, although if this develops only MVFR visibilities are expected, and offshore winds overnight should scour it out. && .MARINE...Northerlies and lingering steep seas will significantly diminish tonight and then remain below advisory levels on Tuesday and much of Wednesday. Southerly winds will begin accelerating near the coast early Wednesday morning ahead of an approaching front. These winds will strengthen throughout the day, expanding in coverage throughout the waters. There is increasing confidence that gale force gusts will develop by late Wednesday night, and strengthen through Thursday. A series of long period westerly swells will spread into the waters through the week. && .BEACH HAZARDS...A long period westerly swell around 5 feet with periods near 17 seconds will build on Tuesday. The potential for sneaker waves will increase during the day, though the risk may be moderated by decaying shorter period waves. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon for CAZ101-103-104-109. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for PZZ470- 475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png