FXUS66 KEKA 302317
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
317 PM PST Mon Jan 30 2023
 
.SYNOPSIS...Dry cold weather will prevail across Northwest
California through mid week. Temperatures will then moderate as 
wet and windier weather returns to the region Thursday into the 
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High amplitude ridge aloft extending toward western
British Columbia will slowly move southeastward over the forecast
area tonight through Wednesday. This will ensure dry and stable 
weather conditions with slowly moderating temperatures. The warming
aloft will result in moderation of cold temperatures, primarily 
for the upper elevations and ridges. Dew points will remain quite 
low (10-25F) and with lighter winds and prevailing clear skies, 
overnight temperatures will once again plummet into the upper 
teens to mid 20's in the inland valleys and below freezing (near 
30F) for coastal areas by early Tuesday morning. Even with warming
aloft tonight, temperatures will probably be colder in some 
locations where easterly winds picked up during the early morning 
hours on Monday. Multi-model ensemble guidance (NBM) probabilities
for minimums of 29F or less for coastal area have diminished to 
20-30%. A hard freeze is still possible early Tuesday morning. At
this time, we have addressed this in a weather story graphic and 
social media posts. 

Continued warming aloft along with higher dewpoints and cloud 
cover will yield milder temperatures for the latter portion of the
week and into the weekend. A series of shortwave troughs and surface
fronts will bring some rain and possibly bouts of gusty southerly
winds Thursday through Sunday. Rain with the first front is expected
Thursday evening and overnight. Ensemble based guidance has been 
trending windier, with possible advisory gusts to 50 mph for the 
higher elevations and coastal headlands. Overall, not a major rain
producer with 24 hours totals around an inch or so for the King 
Range and SW Humboldt County at places like Honeydew. 

Broad ridging later on Friday into Saturday will likely yield
a period of drying with lower probabilities for precipitation. 
A second shortwave trough will begin to impact the area for
the remainder of the weekend with potentially greater amounts of 
beneficial rain area wide and gusty winds. Ensemble clusters 
indicate progressive flow pattern with ridging building in the 
wake of this second shortwave. There is still some variance with 
the timing and precipitation may linger into Monday. 

&&

.AVIATION...Clear skies and VFR visibilities are forecast to 
continue today. Gusty northerly winds along the Redwood Coast this 
afternoon will diminish into the evening. Some hires guidance is 
indicating light mist/haze forming late this evening in the Humboldt 
Bay region, although if this develops only MVFR visibilities are 
expected, and offshore winds overnight should scour it out.

&&

.MARINE...Northerlies and lingering steep seas will significantly
diminish tonight and then remain below advisory levels on Tuesday
and much of Wednesday. Southerly winds will begin accelerating 
near the coast early Wednesday morning ahead of an approaching 
front. These winds will strengthen throughout the day, expanding 
in coverage throughout the waters. There is increasing confidence 
that gale force gusts will develop by late Wednesday night, and 
strengthen through Thursday. A series of long period westerly 
swells will spread into the waters through the week.

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A long period westerly swell around 5 feet with 
periods near 17 seconds will build on Tuesday. The potential for 
sneaker waves will increase during the day, though the risk may be 
moderated by decaying shorter period waves.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Tuesday 
     afternoon for CAZ101-103-104-109.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for PZZ470-
     475.

&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png