FXUS66 KLOX 230412
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 
812 PM PST Fri Feb 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...22/752 PM.

Saturday morning will be cold with possible frost, but dry 
conditions are expected for the day. Temperatures gradually warm 
through early next week as dry weather persists. There is another
chance of light rain by mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...22/810 PM.

***UPDATE***

Quiet weather across the area tonight with clear skies and light
winds in most locations. The exception is north winds gusting to 
25 mph and locally up to 40 mph in the western canyons of the 
Santa Barbara South Coast. Otherwise, many areas that experienced 
gusty north winds last night will see calm conditions and colder 
overnight lows tonight. A Frost Advisory is in effect for the 
valleys of L.A. and Ventura Counties, the Central Coast and Santa 
Ynez Valleys with lows between 33 to 35 degrees. 

A gradual warming trend is expected through the weekend and most
of next week, but temperatures will remain below normal until next
Wednesday or Thursday. 

Increasing high clouds are expected late Saturday into Sunday 
from a system currently about 1200 miles west of the California 
coast. It will bring rain to far northern California but just high
clouds down here. A second system will usher in another batch of 
high clouds late Sunday into Monday. During that period of time 
sky coverage will vary from partly cloudy to high overcast but no
rainfall is expected.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...22/123 PM.

Models in general agreement through the end of next week showing 
a couple systems possibly impacting the area but very different on
strength. The first one late Tue is definitely a little stronger 
on the GFS due to the ECMWF showing a much stronger ridge ahead of
it. Most GEFS members show rain down to at least northern SB 
County by Wednesday afternoon while the ridge on the EC washes the
system out just as it's hitting the SLO/Monterey County line. Not
a big rain producer either way but possibly enough for some light
showers down through SB County by Wed evening. 

Both models then show a pretty strong upper ridge developing
Thursday night into Friday before a second system approaches late
Friday into Saturday. The ECMWF again is stronger with the
preceding ridge and does weaken the system much more than the GFS
does, but higher confidence that at least most of SLO/SB Counties
will see some precip from this one.

&&

.AVIATION...23/0004Z.

At 2300Z, there was no marine inversion at KLAX.

High confidence in the 00Z TAFs with VFR conditions expected at 
all the airfields through Saturday afternoon.

KLAX and KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR 
conditions expected through the period. 10% chance east winds
reach 10 KT at KLAX between 12Z-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...22/810 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence that Small Craft 
Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will continue through late
tonight, especially western portions. Otherwise, there is 
generally high confidence that winds and seas will be below SCA 
levels later tonight through next Wednesday.

For the nearshore waters, high confidence in current forecast. 
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through 
Wednesday of next week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Frost Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 8 AM PST
      Saturday for zones 34>36-44>46-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (MON-FRI).

No significant hazards expected.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Smith/MW
AVIATION...Smith
MARINE...Smith
SYNOPSIS...Phillips

weather.gov/losangeles