FXUS66 KMFR 310425 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 825 PM PST Mon Jan 30 2023 .DISCUSSION...Very dry, mostly clear conditions tonight will lead to more cool overnight lows, though conditions will be warmer than last night/this morning. Some high-level clouds moving towards the the region are visible on satellite this evening, which will move over the northwestern corner of the area later tonight and more broadly over the region by tomorrow. Our previous forecast looks to be well on track with no updates needed for this period; more details about future conditions can be found in the previous discussion below. -Price && .AVIATION...31/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period for all terminals, with a dry air mass. -CC && .MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Monday, January 30, 2023...Gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind driven seas will persist into this evening with the strongest winds and highest seas across the outer waters south of Port Orford. Winds and seas will gradually lower late this evening into Tuesday morning and seas will transition to swell dominated. However, expect steep seas to linger across the outer waters south of Cape Blanco through tonight. Additionally, a continued cold air mass over the area will bring the slight chance for freezing spray early Tuesday morning, mainly across near-shore waters north of Cape Blanco. A strong front will approach the waters Thursday with increasing south winds with gales and very steep seas possible, especially beyond 10 nm from shore. Behind this front, west-southwest swell will build into the waters Thursday night into Friday. Another strong front is possible on Saturday. -CC/Petrucelli && .BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PST Monday, January 30, 2023...Increasing long period west swell will increase the risk of sneaker waves this evening through Tuesday morning. Sneaker waves produce unusually high run up on beaches when compared to other observed waves. Sneaker waves can sweep up the beach without warning and knock unsuspecting people over and pull them out to sea. Shock and hypothermia can occur quickly in the cold Pacific waters. In addition, logs and other debris can be lifted and carried by the waves, crushing or entrapping unsuspecting victims underneath. If you plan to be at the beach, please observe the ocean from a safe distance and stay off logs and/or debris. Also, remember, never turn your back on the ocean! -CC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 218 PM PST Mon Jan 30 2023/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through tomorrow night...Mild weather is persisting across the forecast region in the wake of the weekend's cold air system. An upper level ridge is rebuilding over the Pacific, preventing any impactful weather from approaching from the west. Additionally, a weakening thermal trough will lead to decreasing east winds. An absence of cloud cover will contribute to another night of cold temperatures. A Freeze Warning has been issued for coastal areas approximately from Bandon and northward along the coast in anticipation of these conditions. Other coastal areas could still see temperatures in the mid-30s. Western inland areas are expected to drop to the mid-20s, and eastern highlands could see temperatures from the low teens down to single digits. Currently, Tuesday and Wednesday are looking to stay in this pattern, with the Pacific ridge staying firmly in place allowing temperatures to rise gradually each day across this time period. An upper level trough approaching Wednesday night may be the first change in this pattern as south flow and overhead clouds increase. Please see the long-term discussion for more information. -TAD LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...The axis of the upper ridge then continues to shift east Thursday, and with the thermal trough moving inland the day before the BL flow is steady, but light from the south, becoming southwesterly up to 700 MB. This southerly flow continues to feed moisture into the region becomes southerly up through 700 MB. Models are showing a pressure gradient from the southeast to the northwest, with the gradient increasing in the Shasta Valley by late morning. The Redding to Medford pressure gradient is now indicating near advisory winds in the Shasta valley, with 700 MB winds indicating near advisory strength winds as well over portions of the east side. As we get in the range of the higher resolution models the upper trend in the winds may also increase, with current models already trending upward in this time frame. This first front is also indicating to have a weak to moderate atmospheric river component and with the stronger southerly winds is indicating as a heavier precipitation event on the southern coastal ranges and northern California. A showery pattern remains ahead of the next system moving in Saturday evening into Sunday, and this system is showing stronger and more prolonged southerly flow feeding low level moisture into the region ahead of it. Upper level divergence is indicating stronger today, combining with the region being in the left exit region of the 125 KT jet to bring good upper dynamics that should bring more of the moisture north of the Siskiyous and the Mt Shasta region than indicated with Thursday's system. The ECMWF and the GFS also are in agreement with the contribution of a moderate atmospheric river mid level moisture component. -Sven && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday morning for ORZ021-022. Freeze Warning until 10 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ021. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday morning for PZZ350-356. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ376. && $$