FXZS60 NSTU 290105 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 205 PM SST Sat Jan 28 2023 .Short term... Latest satellite data depicts stable cumulus clouds upstream as a ridge builds to the north. This feature is forecast to dominate and hold stable weather patterns for the week. In addition, the ridge will keep a surface to mid-level trough just southwest of the Islands, which will enhance moisture at times. Expect northeasterly winds of 10 to 15 mph, with scattered showers through at least Friday. .Long term... GFS solutions develops a Tropical Cyclone over the Fiji Islands by Thursday, while the ECMWF shows a weaker system developing on Sunday. Either way this system plays out, both models are in agreement that the aforementioned ridge will hold it to the south and away from the Samoa Island chain. However, the only direct impact from this low may be its moisture, which will possibly enhance showers to numerous Saturday through Sunday. && .Marine... Wave heights remain around 7 to 9 feet with peak periods averaging around 17 seconds. The combination of wave heights and peak periods suggests high surfs up to 12 feet. Hence, a high surf advisory will remain in effect through at least Sunday when southerly swells subsides in the area. Thereafter, no significant swells or winds are forecast for the area. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory && $$ TM