FXZS60 NSTU 290105
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
205 PM SST Sat Jan 28 2023

.Short term...
Latest satellite data depicts stable cumulus clouds upstream as a
ridge builds to the north. This feature is forecast to dominate
and hold stable weather patterns for the week. In addition, the 
ridge will keep a surface to mid-level trough just southwest of 
the Islands, which will enhance moisture at times. Expect 
northeasterly winds of 10 to 15 mph, with scattered showers 
through at least Friday.

.Long term...
GFS solutions develops a Tropical Cyclone over the Fiji Islands 
by Thursday, while the ECMWF shows a weaker system developing on 
Sunday. Either way this system plays out, both models are in 
agreement that the aforementioned ridge will hold it to the south 
and away from the Samoa Island chain. However, the only direct 
impact from this low may be its moisture, which will possibly 
enhance showers to numerous Saturday through Sunday. 

&&

.Marine...
Wave heights remain around 7 to 9 feet with peak periods averaging
around 17 seconds. The combination of wave heights and peak
periods suggests high surfs up to 12 feet. Hence, a high surf
advisory will remain in effect through at least Sunday when southerly
swells subsides in the area. Thereafter, no significant swells or
winds are forecast for the area. 

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

TM