FZAK30 PAFC 271810 ICOAFC Sea Ice Outlook for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 910 AM AKST Thursday 27 November 2025 …NOVEMBER 2025 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK… The month began with the Beaufort Sea nearly frozen up, with navigational waters remaining open save for coastal ice trying to grow out from the North Slope coastline. Sea ice has begun to form outside of protected areas along much of Alaska’s coast as far south as the Kuskokwim Deltac. By the middle of the month, the Beaufort Sea had completely closed off and shorefast ice was becoming established along the North Slope. Kotzebue Sound became ice covered as well as the eastern half of Norton Sound, save for a polynya opening along the eastern coast. Protected areas of Bristol Bay saw the first ice of the season, and Cook Inlet began forming ice mainly on mudflats of Turnagain Arm and Knik Arm that would advect into the upper Inlet to melt. In general the storm track remained south of the Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska, while this is usually favorable for ice growth in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, these systems pumped lots of warmer air aloft over the state and delayed full freeze-up by a week or two. As we look forward into freeze-up, weak La Nina conditions are present and are favored to persist through February 2026. The storm track during La Nina years usually comes in two flavors, south of the Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska, or from the northwest Pacific Ocean through the western Bering Sea over the Chukchi Peninsula. For the last 6 weeks, the east/west Aleutians storm track was favored, long range models continue to suggest the same into early December. The storm track looks favorable for continental arctic air to set up over the state, which will aid in ice growth in all areas. More detailed information is available in each section below. …FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA… For Icy Cape to Point Barrow offshore west to 170W, seven tenths coverage is likely during the last week of November. Ice covered is expected during the first week of December. For Wales to Point Hope to 170W, outside of Kotzebue Sound, three tenths coverage of ice is expected during the last week of November. Seven tenths coverage is expected during the first week of December. The Bering Strait is expected to reach seven tenths coverage within 20 nm of the center line during the first week of December. …FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA… For Norton Sound, seven tenths coverage is expected during the last week of November. Along the Kuskokwim River Delta, the area has already seen three to seven tenths of ice out to 20 nm, however several southerly winds events have melted ice and compressed it against the coast. Expect a return to seven tenths of ice during the last week of November. For Bristol Bay, three tenths coverage is expected during the first week of December. The storm track looks to remain close enough to the Alaska Peninsula that ice coverage is going to be highly variable based on warmer southeast winds followed by colder offshore flow. Persistent seven tenths coverage is not expected until the third week of December, but could not happen at all this season. The main ice edge is expected to reach Saint Lawrence Island during the second week of December. The main ice edge is expected to reach Saint Matthew Island during the second half of January. Coastal ice is expected to extend west of Nunivak Island during the second week of December. The ice edge reaching Saint Paul Island occurs about 50% of the years on record. If it occurs this year, February would be the earliest it could happen, but it is more likely in March. Coastal ice likely will not reach Port Moller this season, but if it does, it could happen during the first half of January. …FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET… South of the line from Susitna Delta to Point Possession to the Forelands, the first ice is expected during the last week of November. South of the Forelands, the first ice is expected during the first week of December. North of the Forelands, three tenths ice coverage is expected during the first week of December, usually having similar timing to when the first sea ice formation occurs south of the Forelands. Seven tenths ice coverage is possible by the last week of December, but it could be delayed to the beginning of January. Along the coast from Kenai to Nikiski, the first ice is expected to form during the third week of December. The ice edge is expected to reach Kalgin Island during the last week of December. For the area from 60N to the Forelands, three tenths ice coverage is expected by the end of December. Seven tenths ice coverage may not happen this year but if it does it will be in February. Sea ice may reach Ninilchik during the first half of January. Sea ice may not reach Anchor Point this season, but if it does, it could happen by the end of January. $$ Lawson