FZAK30 PAFC 241747 ICOAFC Sea Ice Outlook for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 830 AM AKST Wednesday 24 February 2021 ...FEBRUARY 2021 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK… Looking at the big picture, the sea ice extent didn’t change much in the central and eastern Bering Sea during February. Much of the sea ice growth we saw was in the western Bering Sea including from St. Matthew Island westward as winds in that area were fairly persistently out of the northeast. The southeastern Bering Sea including Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Bay has continued to struggle to establish sea ice due to a combination of storm tracks and prevailing winds pushing existing sea ice offshore to warmer waters where it melts. Sea ice within Cook Inlet has grown quite a bit in the past month with persistent cold temperatures overall in the region. As we look forward into break-up season through May, there is high confidence that La Nina conditions will continue through March but is expected to weaken in April and May. The eastern Bering Sea may break up quicker than previous years as winds have repeatedly moved sea ice off to the west and the resultant sea ice is now thinner than usual. The thicker ice that has come south through the Bering Strait this winter is mainly in the central and northern Bering Sea. Detailed information can be found in each pertinent section below. ...FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA… Within Bristol Bay, sea ice is not expected to reach seven tenths coverage this season. At this time there is a 40 to 60 percent chance that sea ice will reach Saint Paul Island this winter. If sea ice does reach Saint Paul Island this season, it would likely be in March or early April depending on weather patterns and persistence of cold air and northerly winds. At this time there is a 10 to 20 percent chance that sea ice will reach Saint George Island this winter. If it does, it would most likely be in March or early April. ...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET… South of Kalgin Island is expected to be sea ice free by the end of March. South of the Forelands is expected to be sea ice free by the end of March or first week of April. The Forelands to Fire Island is expected to reach 3 tenths concentration by the second week of April and sea ice free for the season during the second half of April. Turnagain Arm is expected to be sea ice free during the third or fourth week of April. Knik Arm is expected to reach 3 tenths concentration around the middle of April and be sea ice free by the end of April. Cook Inlet is expected to be sea ice free outside of Knik and Turnagain Arms during the last week of April. Cook Inlet is expected to be sea ice free by the end of April. ...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA… If the ice edge does reach Saint Paul and Saint George Island, the last sea ice will likely be seen there by the second half of April. This date is highly variable from year to year due to weather patterns. Bristol Bay sea ice is expected to be sea ice free for the season by the middle of April. For Kuskokwim Bay, sea ice has struggled to become shorefast this season. What has become shorefast will likely no longer be shorefast during the second half of April. Sea ice is expected to reach 3 tenths concentration by the end of April or first week of May and be sea ice free for the season during the first half of May. Etolin Strait is expected to reach 3 tenths concentration then sea ice free for the season during the first half of May. For Etolin Strait to Cape Romanzof to 20 nm offshore, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast and decrease to 3 tenths concentration during the first half of May. This area is expected to be sea ice free for the season during the second half of May. For Cape Romanzof to Kwikpak to 20 nm offshore, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast and decrease to 3 tenths concentration during the second half of May. This area is expected to be sea ice free for the season toward the end of May or beginning of June. For Kwikpak to Unalakleet to 20nm offshore, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the second half of May. Sea ice near Shaktoolik is expected to reach 3 tenths concentration during the second half of May and become sea ice free for the season by the end of May. For Norton Bay, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the second half of May. Sea ice is expected to reach 3 tenths concentration by the end of May and may be sea ice free for the season as well by the end of May. For Golovin, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast and become sea ice free for the season by the end of May. Sea ice along the Nome Coast is expected to no longer be shorefast by the end of May. Sea ice in this area may reach 3 tenths concentration also by the end of May. The Bering Sea south of 60N may be sea ice free for the season by the end of May. ...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA… For Wales to Espenberg, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the second half of May. Sea ice within Kotzebue Sound may no longer be shorefast by the end of May. $$ Schreck