FZAK30 PAFC 252309 ICOAFC Sea Ice Outlook for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 308 PM AKDT Thursday 25 May 2023 ...MAY 2023 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK... Over the last month, an unseasonably cold airmass caused sea ice to drift back southward for one last attempt at a new seasonal maximum extent for 2022-2023 winter. Break-up has remained slower than the past several years, though only slightly slower than 2022 and 2021 break-up seasons. As we look forward through break-up season, ENSO-Neutral conditions are still expected to transition to El Nino over the next couple months. Overall, a transition to above average temperatures is expected through the summer months. These above average temperatures are likely to accelerate break-up, especially in July and August. Detailed information can be found in each pertinent section below. ...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA... Kuskokwim Bay is expected to be sea ice free during the fourth week of May. For Etolin Strait, sea ice is expected to reach three tenths concentration by the end of May and be sea ice free during the second week of June. Navigational waters from Etolin Strait to cape Romanzof are expected to be sea ice free for the season by the first week of June. For navigational waters from Cape Romanzof to Kwikpak, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast by the end of May. Sea ice is expected to reach three tenths concentration during the first week of June and become sea ice free during the second week of June. For navigational waters from Kwikpak to Unalakleet, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast by the end of May. Sea ice is expected to reach three tenths concentration and become sea ice free during the second week of June. For Shaktoolik, sea ice concentration is expected to reach three tenths by the end of May and will likely be sea ice free for the season during the first week of June. For Norton Bay, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the last week of May. Norton Bay is expected to reach three tenths concentration during the first week of June and sea ice free conditions during the second week of June. For Golovin Bay, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the last week of May. Sea ice concentration will likely reach three tenths and sea ice free during the second week of June. Along the coast from Port Safety to Cape Rodney, sea ice will no longer be shorefast around the end of May. Sea ice concentration within 20 nm of the coast is expected to reach three tenths then sea ice free during the second week of June. Sea ice throughout Norton Sound was re-established after gradually being blown toward Saint Lawrence Island this winter; therefore, the sea ice is not as thick as it would be if it had generally stayed within the sound throughout the season. Sea ice concentration within Norton Sound is expected to reach three tenths around the end of May. Ice free conditions are expected by the middle of June. Sea ice near Port Clarence is expected to no longer be shorefast during the first week of June. Three tenths coverage is expected during the 3rd week of June, with sea ice free conditions expected during the fourth week of June. The Bering Sea south of 60N is expected to be sea ice free for the season during the second week of June. The Bering Sea south of Saint Lawrence Island is expected to be sea ice free during the third week of June. For St. Lawrence Island to the Bering Strait, three tenths coverage is expected during the second week of June. For the Bering Strait to 20 nm N/S of Center Line, ice free conditions are expected around the end of June. The Bering Sea is expected to be sea ice free during the first half of July. ...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA... Along the coast from Wales to Espenberg, ice is no longer expected to be shorefast during the last week of May. Within 20 nm of the coast, three tenths coverage and ice free conditions are expected during the last week of June or first week of July. For Kotzebue Sound, ice is no longer expected to be shorefast during the second week of June. Three tenths coverage and sea ice free conditions are expected during the fourth week of June. For Cape Krusenstern to Point Hope, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the first week of June. Within 20 nm from the coast, three tenths coverage is expected around the end of June. Sea ice free conditions are expected during the first week of July. From Point Hope to Ice Cape, West to 170W, sea ice is expected to reach three tenths coverage during the first half of July. Ice free conditions are expected around the middle of July. For Point Hope to Wainwright ice is no longer expected to be shorefast during the last week of June. Within 20 nm from the coast, three tenths coverage is expected during the first half of July and ice free conditions around mid-July. For Wainwright to Utqiagvik, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast around the end of June or beginning of July. Sea ice concentrations within 20 nm of the coast will reach three tenths around mid-July and be sea ice free during the second half of July. For Icy Cape to Utqiagvik, west to 170W, sea ice concentrations may reach three tenths by the end of July. …BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA… For Point Barrow through Demarcation Point, it is possible that ice may no longer be shorefast by the end of June, but is more likely during the first half of July. For navigational waters from Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point, sea ice concentrations are expected to reach three tenths during the first half of August and become sea ice free for the season during the second half of August. For navigational waters from Point Barrow to Harrison Bay, sea ice concentrations are expected to reach three tenths during the first half of August and become sea ice free for the season during the second half of August. For navigational waters from Harrison Bay to Flaxman Island, sea ice concentrations are expected to reach three tenths during the second half of August. $$ Schreck