FZAK30 PAFC 282016 ICOAFC Sea Ice Outlook for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 100 PM AKST Saturday 28 March 2020 ...MARCH 2020 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK... March was a volatile month for sea ice with both big advances and retreats happening in the last 4 weeks. There may have been a maximum sea ice extent put in for the season as strips of ice reached St. Paul Island on March 3rd, but only briefly. Three weeks later, an active storm track into the Bering has pushed the ice edge back north to near Saint Matthew Island. Areal ice coverage in the Bering Sea had been as high as 120% of normal, but since that time has retreated to below normal. Ice in Cook Inlet was highly variable as well where it remained close to maximum extent, but ultimately retreated and thinned a bit over the course of the last month. However, it still is southward of Kalgin Island which is significant for the area. For the remainder of the month, temperatures look to fall back below normal. As we look forward into breakup through June, we are expecting a slower break-up than in the past couple years, as sea ice has been able to grow thicker with the persistent cold air over the ice pack. Detailed information can be found in each pertinent section below. ...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET... Due to the extent and thickness of the sea ice within Cook Inlet this winter, break-up is expected to be slower than the past couple years by two to three weeks. More specific timing is in each pertinent section below. The area south of Kalgin Island is expected to be sea ice free for the season by the second week of April. South of the Forelands is expected to be sea ice free for the season by the third week of April. From the Forelands to Fire Island, sea ice concentration is expected to reach 3 tenths by the third week of April and be sea ice free by the 4th week of April. Turnagain Arm is expected to be sea ice free during the last week of April. Knik Arm is expected to reach 3 tenths concentration during the third week of April and be sea ice free for the season by the last week of April. Cook Inlet outside of Knik and Turnagain Arms is expected to be sea ice free by the 4th week of April. Cook Inlet is expected to be sea ice free for the season by the 4th week of April. ...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA... Bristol Bay is expected to reach 3 tenths concentration by the second week of April and be sea ice free for the season by the third week of April. Sea ice within the Kuskokwim Bay is expected to no longer be shorefast and reach 3 tenths concentration by the last week of April. Kuskokwim Bay is expected to be sea ice free for the season by the second week of May. Sea ice concentration within Etolin Strait may reach 3 tenths by the first week of May and be sea ice free for the season during the second week of May. From Etolin Strait to Cape Romanzof, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the first week of May. Sea ice concentration within navigational waters are expected to reach 3 tenths during the second week of May and become sea ice free for the season by the third week of May. From Cape Romanzof to Kwikpak, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the 3rd week of April. Sea ice concentration within 20nm of the coast will likely reach 3 tenths during the last week of April, and become sea ice free for the season during the second half of May. For Kwikpak to Unalakleet, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast around mid-May. Sea ice concentrations within 20 nm offshore will likely reach 3 tenths during the 3rd week of May, and reach sea ice free for the season by the end of May. Sea ice within the waters near Shaktoolik is expected to reach 3 tenths by the first week of May and be sea ice free for the season by mid-May. Sea ice within Norton Bay is expected to no longer be shorefast during the second half of May. Sea ice concentration may reach 3 tenths within Norton Bay by the end of May. Ice free conditions are expected by the first week of June. Sea ice within Golovin Bay is expected to no longer be shorefast by the third week of May and reach 3 tenths concentration and become sea ice free for the season during the last week of May. From Port Safety to Cape Rodney along the Nome Coast, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the first week of May. Sea ice concentrations are expected to reach 3 tenths by the second week of May, and become sea ice free for the season during the last week of May. Sea ice within Norton Sound is expected to reach 3 tenths concentration by the third week of May and become sea ice free for the season by the end of May Sea ice at Port Clarence is expected to no longer be shorefast by the end of May. Three tenths coverage and sea ice free conditions during the first half of June. The Bering Sea south of 60N is expected to be sea ice free for the season during the first week of May. The Bering Sea south of St. Lawrence Island may be sea ice free for the season by the third week of May. Alaska waters from Saint Lawrence Island to the Bering Strait may reach 3 tenths concentration by the last week of May or first week of June. Bering Strait waters are expected to be ice free by the first half of June. The Bering Sea is expected to be ice free during the first half of June. ...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA... From Wales to Espenberg, sea ice will no longer be shorefast during the first half of June. Less than three tenths coverage is expected by mid-June and sea ice free conditions during the second half of June. For Kotzebue Sound, ice is no longer expected to be shorefast by the first week of June. Less than three tenths coverage is expected during the second half of June. Ice free conditions are expected by the end of June or possibly early July. From navigational waters from Cape Krusenstern to Point Hope ice is no longer expected to be shorefast during the second half of May. Less than three tenths coverage is expected by mid-June and ice free conditions by late-June. For Point Hope to Icy Cape to 170W, less than three tenths coverage is expected during the second half of June. For navigational waters from Point Hope to Wainwright, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the first half of June. Sea ice concentrations may reach 3 tenths by the end of June. From Wainwright to Point Barrow, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the second half of June. ...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA... For Point Barrow to Demarcation Point, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the second half of June. $$ Schreck