FZAK30 PAFC 242117
ICOAFC

Sea Ice Outlook for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 
117 PM AKDT Wednesday 24 June 2020

...JUNE 2020 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK...

Break-up continued very gradually through June, as the sea ice in 
the northern Bering Sea and southern Chukchi Sea largely melted. 
Only a small area of sea ice remains in the northeastern area of 
Saint Lawrence Island, as well as scattered areas of remaining sea 
ice along the coast from Wales to Kotzebue sound and near Icy Cape 
to Point Barrow. In the Beaufort Sea, sea ice is melting beyond the 
shorefast ice from the Mackenzie River Delta in Canada westward to 
near Prudhoe Bay area in typical fashion. Overall, break-up is about 
one month slower than last year but is still faster than average 
since 2000. 

As we look forward to break up through September, we expect break-up 
to be faster than average over the last 20 to 30 years, but still 
slower than the past couple years. While there is relatively little 
multi-year sea ice in the Chukchi Sea, there is a considerable 
amount of multi-year sea ice that will likely slow down break-up 
somewhat in the Beaufort Sea. Air temperatures across much of Alaska 
are expected to continue to be above average through September, 
aiding in another faster than usual break-up this summer. 

Detailed information can be found in each pertinent section below.


...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA...

Navigational waters from Wales to Espenberg is expected to be sea 
ice free by the end of June.

For Kotzebue Sound, there is just a small area of sea ice in the 
western part of the sound near Espenberg. This area is expected 
to be sea ice free by the end of June. 

For Point Hope to Icy Cape to 170W, less than three tenths coverage 
is expected during the second week of July and sea ice free for the 
season by the third week of July. 

For navigational waters from Point Hope to Wainwright, sea ice free 
conditions are expected by the first week of July.

Navigational waters from Wainwright to Point Barrow are expected to 
be sea ice free for the season during the first week of July.

From Icy Cape to Utqiagvik west to 170W, sea ice concentration is 
expected to reach 3 tenths during the fourth week of July and be sea 
ice free for the season during the first half of August.

North and west of Point Barrow to 75N and 170W is expected to reach 
3 tenths concentration during the second half of August and be sea 
ice free for the season by the end of August. However, some melting 
north of this area is likely to occur before this area is sea ice 
free due to a lack of multi-year sea ice between approximately 74N 
and 79N. 

...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA...

For Point Barrow to Cape Halkett, the date that sea ice becomes no 
longer shorefast varies widely from year to year. At this point it 
looks most likely that the ice will no longer be shorefast during 
the first week of July. 

For navigational waters from Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island, sea ice 
is expected to reach 3 tenths concentration during the first half of 
August and be sea ice free for the season by the end of August.

For navigational waters from Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point, 
the break-up dates for this region vary significantly from year to 
year. At this time it looks most likely that this area will reach 3 
tenths concentration during the first half of August and be sea ice 
free for the season during the second half of August.

While the southern Beaufort Sea is expected to become sea ice free 
south of at least 72N or 73N this season, whether or not sea ice 
melts back to 75N before the end of August will be highly dependent 
on weather patterns as well as water and atmospheric temperatures in 
that region this summer. If the Beaufort Sea does become sea ice 
free to 75N this season, it will likely be during September. 

$$ 
Schreck