FZAK30 PAFC 251829 ICOAFC Sea Ice Outlook for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 1028 AM AKDT Thursday 25 July 2024 ...JULY 2024 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK... Through the month of July, the ice pack has very gradually been melting back along its edges. While there hasn’t been a significant difference in sea ice extent during the month, we have seen signs of the ice pack thinning with open water showing between the larger floes especially across the southern Beaufort Sea. The Chukchi Sea’s break-up has been slower than most of the last 15 years, though not significantly so. Break-up within the Beaufort Sea has been about average over the past 15 years. Looking ahead through the remainder of break-up season and into the start of freeze-up season, our current ENSO-neutral conditions are expected transition to La Nina for Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. We are expecting break-up to speed up across the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas in August before reaching seasonal sea ice minimum in mid-September. While most of the multi-year ice and widely scattered icebergs are north of 73N, there are some scattered multi-year ice floes and widely scattered icebergs south of there that will take longer to melt than the surrounding first year floes. Detailed information can be found in each pertinent section below. …BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA… Navigational waters from Wainwright to Utqiagvik are expected to be sea ice free during the first week of August. From Icy Cape to Point Barrow west to 170W, sea ice concentration less than three tenths is expected during the second week of August. This area is expected to be sea ice free for the season by the end of August. For North and West of Point Barrow to 75N and 170W, sea ice is expected to reach three tenths coverage during the second week of September, and be ice free for the year by the end of September. …BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA… For navigational waters from Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point, sea ice is expected to reach three tenths concentration then become sea ice free by the first week of August. For navigational waters from Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island, this area is where sea ice near the Alaska coastline tends to linger the longest. Sea ice concentration is expected to reach three tenths during the last week of August and be sea ice free by the first week of September. For navigational waters from Point Barrow to Cape Halkett, sea ice concentration is expected to reach three tenths during the first week of August and be sea ice free for the season during the second half of August. For Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point to 75N, the ice edge will likely retreat to 73N or 74N with three tenths coverage expected around mid-September. Ice free conditions are not expected north of 74N. For Harrison Bay to Flaxman Island to 75N, the ice edge will likely retreat to near 74N or 75N with three tenths coverage expected mid- September. Ice free conditions are not expected. …FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA… Sea ice is expected to begin growing within the pack during the second half of September. For Demarcation Point to Utqiagvik to 75N, ice growth could extend south of the ice pack by the end of September but is more likely in October. New sea ice is expected to begin forming behind barrier islands along the north coast of Alaska during the second week of October. Sea ice will likely begin extending beyond the barrier islands during the second half of October. The main ice pack is expected to begin merging with the new sea ice off the Alaska coastline during the second half of October. …FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA… Sea ice is expected to begin forming along the coast from Icy Cape to Point Barrow during the second week of October. From Point Hope to Icy Cape, the first ice formation behind barrier islands is expected during the first half of October. Navigational waters may see three tenths concentration by the end of October. In Kotzebue Sound, the first sea ice formation is expected during the first half of October. From Wales to Espenberg, the first sea ice formation behind barrier islands is expected during the first half of October. …FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA… Within Norton Sound, the first sea ice usually forms within Norton Bay, then Golovin Bay. This first sea ice is expected to form during the second half of October. Along the Yukon River Delta, the first sea ice formation is expected during the first half of October. Along the Kuskokwim River Delta, the first sea ice formation is expected during the second half of October. $$ Schreck