FZAK30 PAFC 232221
ICOAFC

Sea Ice Outlook for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 
110 PM AKST Thursday 23 January 2020

...January 2020 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK...

The sea ice grew significantly in the Bering Sea and Cook Inlet 
through the first part of January as very cold air was over the 
majority of Alaska as well as the Bering and Chukchi Seas. There 
were some southerly winds that caused the ice pack to retreat 
especially in the western Bering Sea, and some polynyas formed off 
north-facing shorelines by mid-January. Cold air returned for the 
latter part of the month, allowing for some recovery in the sea ice 
extent and thickness.

As we look forward through the remainder of freeze-up through April, 
the main ice pack in the Bering Sea is expected to continue to 
fluctuate as lows are expected to move north through the Bering Sea 
from time to time. Overall sea ice extent will likely remain below 
average through the remainder of the ice growth season. However, sea 
surface temperatures have certainly cooled south of the ice pack. If 
there is another prolonged period of northerly winds and Arctic air 
the ice pack could briefly advance south of Saint Matthew Island 
before the melt season begins in earnest.

Detailed information can be found in each pertinent section below.

...FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA...

The main ice edge may reach Saint Matthew Island during the last 
week of January. 

It remains unlikely that the ice edge will make it to Saint Paul 
Island this season. The only exception to this is if northerly winds 
and cold air persist for several weeks during February and/or March.

...FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET...

An Arctic airmass has settled over the Cook Inlet region for most of 
the month of January, and there has been significant sea ice growth 
after a slow start to the season. This airmass is expected to remain 
over the area through at least the end of January. Sea ice extent 
will then likely fluctuate through February and March before break-
up in late March through April.

Sea ice is expected to reach Anchor Point by the first week of 
February.

...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET...

The area south of Kalgin Island is expected to be sea ice free by 
the second week of March.

South of the Forelands is expected to be sea ice free by the third 
week of March.

From the Forelands to Fire Island, sea ice concentration is expected 
to reach 3 tenths by the end of March and be sea ice free by the 
middle of April.

Turnagain Arm is expected to be sea ice free for the season by the 
first week of April.

Knik Arm is expected to reach 3 tenths concentration during the 
second or third week of April and be sea ice free for the season by 
the end of April.

Cook Inlet outside of Knik and Turnagain Arms is expected to be sea 
ice free for the season by the middle of April.

Cook Inlet is expected to be sea ice free for the season during the 
second half of April.

...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA...

Bristol Bay is expected to reach 3 tenths concentration by the first 
week of April and be sea ice free for the season by the middle of 
April.

Sea ice within Kuskokwim Bay is expected to no longer be shorefast 
by mid-April. Sea ice concentration is expected to reach 3 tenths 
during the second half of April, and be sea ice free for the season 
by the end of April.

Sea ice concentration within Etolin Strait may reach 3 tenths by the 
end of April.

From Cape Romanzof to Kwikpak, sea ice is expected to no longer be 
shorefast during the first half of april. Sea ice concentration 
within 20 nm of the coast will likely reach 3 tenths during the 
first half of april, and may become sea ice free for the season by 
the end of April.

$$
Schreck