FZAK30 PAFC 282154 CCA
ICOAFC

Sea Ice Outlook for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 
1252 PM AKST Thursday 28 November 2024

...NOVEMBER 2024 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK...

November saw a progression into seasonally normal freeze-up across 
the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. High pressure over the Arctic in the 
beginning of the month allowed for the pack to thicken to primarily 
young and first year thin ice. The ice pack moved steadily 
southward, but northeasterly winds along the North Slope and ice 
edge prevented much widespread new ice along the coast and ice edge. 
Ice along the Beaufort coast even melted under the wind/wave action 
for a period. However, by the middle of the month, growth resumed 
and pack ice met the coastal ice and the Beaufort Sea became ice 
covered. Growth in the Chukchi Sea and northwest coast of Alaska was 
similarly stunted by the northeast winds, but Kotzebue Sound 
continued to grow under lighter winds. Once widespread winds laid 
down, new ice froze in a large area of the southern Chukchi Sea 
between Point Hope/Kivalina and the Russian coast, bifurcating ice 
free areas to the north in the Chukchi Sea, and the Bering Strait. 
For the Bering Sea, ice formed along the coast intermittently from 
the Kuskokwim Delta northward through the Yukon Delta, but a storm 
track into the area kept melting existing ice. Sea ice production 
was mainly in Norton Bay and northeastern Norton Sound.  

As we look forward into the first few months of freeze-up season, La 
Nina conditions are still  expected to develop over the next few 
months. With the lingering ice in the Chukchi Sea and if storm 
tracks stay south as is typical during La Nina winters, freeze-up 
conditions look to be faster than the past couple years. Ice 
formation in the Bering Sea is going to depend on the exact storm 
track, with better chances for sustained growth from the Yukon Delta 
northward, with more variable conditions for the Kuskokwim Delta and 
Bristol Bay

Detailed information can be found in each pertinent section below.

…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA…

From Wales to Espenberg, sea ice is expected to reach seven-tenths 
coverage during the last week of November.

For Wales to Point Hope to 170W, three tenths coverage is expected 
during the last week of November. Seven tenths coverage is expected 
during the first week of December.

The Bering Strait is expected to reach seven tenths within 20 nm of 
the center line during the second week of December.

…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…

Within Norton Sound, seven tenths coverage of sea ice is expected 
during the last week of November.

Along the Kuskokwim River Delta, the sea ice is expected to reach 
seven-tenths coverage by the end of November.

For Bristol Bay, establishment of sea ice is going to be dependent 
on the storm track over the next month. If the storm track stays 
south of the Alaska Peninsula it will allow arctic air to quickly 
grow sea ice. If the storm track is into Bristol Bay or near the 
Kuskokwim Delta, ice will struggle to grow. Three tenths coverage is 
expected in the first half of December, with seven tenths coverage 
expected by the end of December.

The main ice edge is expected to reach Saint Lawrence Island during 
the second week of December.

The main ice edge is expected to reach Saint Matthew Island during 
the first half of January.

Coastal ice is expected to extend west of Nunivak Island by the 
third week of December. 

The ice edge makes it to Saint Paul Island around 50% of the years 
on record, and is usually late in the ice season. It is possible 
that ice makes it to the Pribilofs in February, but is more likely 
in March if it were to happen. 

For the Alaska Peninsula, freeze-up will depend largely on the 
prevailing storm track, much like Bristol Bay. If ice reaches Port 
Moller and/or False Pass, it will likely be in January.

…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET… 

Freeze-up for the Inlet will be affected by an ongoing cold snap 
toward the end of November into the beginning of December. However 
the air mass moderates during the first week of December which may 
pause growth for a week or two. 

The first ice south of The Forelands is expected during the first 
week of December. 

North of the Forelands, three tenths concentration is expected 
during the first week of December. Seven tenths concentration is 
expected around mid-December. 

The first ice along the coast from Kenai to Nikiski is expected by 
the third week of December. 

The ice edge may make it to Kalgin Island by the end of December but 
is more likely in early January.

From 60N to the Forelands, sea ice is expected to reach three tenths 
concentration during the third week of December. Seven tenths 
concentration is expected in the first half of January.

Sea ice is expected to make it to Ninilchik in the first half of 
January.

If ice makes it to Anchor Point, it will be toward the end of 
January or early February.

$$ 
Lawson