FZAK30 PAFC 261712
ICOAFC

Sea Ice Outlook for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 
912 AM AKDT Tuesday 26 March 2024

...MARCH 2024 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK... 

Another round of persistent northerly winds over the Bering Sea 
brought the ice pack south again, and strips of sea ice reached St. 
Paul Island in mid-March. The overall weather pattern then switched 
again with lows moving north into the Bering Sea and bringing warmer 
southerly winds with them. The ice pack retreated and made one more 
advancement south during the last week of the month, with strips of 
ice making it within a few miles of St. Paul Island once again. 

Looking ahead to break-up season, El Nino conditions are expected to 
continue but weaken through spring and early summer. The Climate 
Prediction Center forecasts air temperatures across Alaska waters to 
overall be above average during late spring, which should allow for 
the ice pack to break up quicker than average especially as we get 
into May and June.

Detailed information can be found in each pertinent section below.

…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET…

South of the Forelands is expected to be sea ice free by the end of 
March.

From the Forelands to Fire Island, three tenths concentration is 
expected during the first week of April. Sea ice free conditions are 
expected by the middle of April.

Turnagain Arm is expected to be sea ice free during the first week 
of April.

Knik Arm is expected to reach three-tenths then be sea ice free by 
the third week of April.

Cook Inlet is expected to be sea ice free during the third week of 
April. 

…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…

For Bristol Bay, while sea ice concentration will continue to be 
variable through the remainder of the season, the last time it is 
expected to decrease to three tenths concentration is the fourth 
week of March. Bristol Bay is expected to be sea ice free for the 
season during the second week of April.

For Kuskokwim Bay, the shorefast ice is typically the last ice 
within the bay to melt. That ice is expected to no longer be 
shorefast during the last week of April or first week of May. Sea 
ice within Kuskokwim Bay is expected to reach three tenths 
concentration during the first week of May and be sea ice free by 
the middle of May. 

For Etolin Strait, sea ice is expected to reach three tenths 
concentration by the end of April and be sea ice free by mid-May.

For Etolin Strait to Cape Romanzof, Ice will no longer be shorefast 
around mid-April. Three-tenths coverage is expected during the 
second week of May. Ice free conditions are expected during the 
third week of May.

For Cape Romanzof to Kwikpak, ice is no longer expected to be 
shorefast by mid-May. Three-tenths coverage then sea ice free 
conditions are expected during the third week of May. 

For Kwikpak to Unalakleet, ice is no longer expected to be shorefast 
by mid-May. Sea ice concentration will likely reach 3 tenths by the 
end of May and be sea ice free during the first week of June.

For Shaktoolik, less than three tenths is expected around mid-May. 
Sea ice free conditions are expected by the end of May.

Around Norton Bay, ice is no longer expected to be shorefast around 
mid-May. Sea ice concentration within Norton Bay will reach 3 tenths 
by the end of May and sea ice free conditions are expected during 
the first week of June.

For Golovin Bay, ice is no longer expected to be shorefast during 
the third week of May. Less than three-tenths coverage is expected 
during the last week of May. Ice free conditions could happen by the 
end of May but is more likely during the first week of June. 

Along the Nome coast, dates of the last shorefast ice are highly 
variable from May to June and will depend on the prevailing storm 
track and air temperatures associated with the systems. Expect ice 
to no longer be shorefast by mid-May. Three-tenths coverage is 
expected by the end of May. Ice free conditions are possible by the 
end of May but are more likely during the first week of June.

For Port Clarence, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast 
during the last week of May. Sea ice is expected to decrease to 
three tenths concentration then be sea ice free for the season 
during the first week of June.

For the Bering Sea south of 60N, ice free conditions are expected 
around mid-May. 

The Bering Sea south of Saint Lawrence Island is expected to be sea 
ice free during the first week of June.

Saint Lawrence Island to the Bering Strait is expected to reach 
three tenths sea ice concentration around mid-June. 

The Bering Strait is expected to be sea ice free to 20 nm north and 
south of the center line around mid-June.

The Bering Sea is expected to be sea ice free by the fourth week of 
June.

…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA…

For Wales to Shishmaref, ice is no longer expected to be shorefast 
by the end of May. Sea ice concentration is expected to reach three 
tenths around mid-June and be sea ice free for the season during the 
second half of June.

For Kotzebue Sound, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast by 
the end of May. Sea ice concentrations are expected to reach 3 
tenths then be sea ice free during the second half of June.

For navigational waters from Cape Krusenstern to Point Hope, sea ice 
is expected to no longer be shorefast during the first week of June. 
Three tenths concentration is expected around mid-June and sea ice 
free conditions are expected during the second half of June.

For Point Hope to Wainwright, sea ice is expected to no longer be 
shorefast during the second half of June.

For Wainwright to Utqiagvik, sea ice is expected to no longer be 
shorefast during the second half of June.

…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA…

From Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point, sea ice is expected to no 
longer be shorefast during the second half of June.

$$ 
Schreck