FZAK80 PAFC 070027 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 327 PM AKST Wednesday 6 December 2023 FORECAST VALID...Monday 11 December 2023 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Low SYNOPSIS...A complex low with multiple centers sits over the Bering Strait region. It will weaken and move toward Bristol Bay by the weekend. A strong low forms south of the eastern Aleutians on Saturday, sending a front into the northern Gulf over through Monday. High pressure builds over the Chukchi Sea on Monday. The main ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham to 61 56'N 167 15'W to 63 55'N 166 2'W to 65 42'N 168 20'W to 66 51'N 165 24'W to 69 34'N 168 57'W to 70 57'N 167 6'W to 70 26'N 174 1'W to 68 23'N 169 14'W to 66'N 169 4'W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also sea ice within the Gulf of Anadyr. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from Cape Newenham to 50 nm west of Scammon Bay to 30 nm southwest of Nome to 10 nm west of Wales to 45 nm south of Kivalina to 70 nm northwest of Cape Lisburne to 120 nm north of Cape Lisburne to 175 nm northwest of Cape Lisburne to 70 southwest of Cape Lisburne to 15 nm northwest of Diomede and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also sea ice in Bristol Bay. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm- PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. The air mass remains conducive to growing and thickening of existing ice. Winds will remain light and variable through Friday before turning light from the north. Shorefast ice will continue to establish and thicken while the pack moves to the west, creating a shear zone between the two features. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- Ice covered. PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm- PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm- FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. Light winds increase out of the north to moderate strength on Friday, then slightly weaken through the weekend, followed by increasing again early next week. The air mass aloft is very cold, which will promote ice growth, however, the stronger winds will prevent much freeze up. Expect the ice edge to move southward and grow 20 to 30 nm through Monday. Kotzebue Sound ice will continue to expand. -BERING SEA- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- Ice covered. PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm- PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm- PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm- FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is low to moderate. Bristol Bay through the Kuskokwim Delta will continue to grow through the weekend, however Sunday will bring strong offshore winds from a north Pacific system which will melt existing ice and move it southward into warmer waters. For the Yukon Delta through Norton Sound, expect continued expansion of the ice edge 20 to 30 nm under arctic air and light winds. By Monday, stronger northerly winds will prevent new ice growth, but continue to advect existing ice to the south. -COOK INLET- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- The main ice edge extends from near Tyonek to near Point Possession. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Colder air will overspread the Cook Inlet region late Thursday through Sunday. Expect more extensive sea ice growth during this time across northern Cook Inlet. A warmer air mass and Turnagain Arm winds will come overhead on Monday, threatening to melt most of the newly formed ice. && Lawson