FZAK80 PAFC 242020 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 100 PM AKDT Friday 24 March 2023 FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 29 March 2023 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to High SYNOPSIS...A strong triple-point low in the southwest Bering Sea moves towards Wrangel Island through the weekend. A low pressure may form in the SW Bering Sea on Tuesday. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 NM- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 NM- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 NM- PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 NM- PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 NM- PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 NM- Ice Covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Strong S winds remain through Monday, which could threaten some shorefast break-off and areas of open water present along the shorefast edge. On Tuesday, winds shift from the west. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 NM- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 NM- PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 NM- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM- PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 NM- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM- PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 NM- PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 NM- PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 NM- Ice Covered. FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is Moderate. Strong, S SE flow Saturday and Sunday will result in polynyas expanding along the W and NW coast of Alaska with an increased risk of shorefast breaking off. Moderate winds from the SE on Monday and Tuesday will encourage ice to flow northward along the NW coast of Alaska. -BERING SEA- PKZ412-Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- PKZ414-Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM- PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM- PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM- PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM- PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island- PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island Waters- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 NM- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 NM- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 NM- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM- PKZ816-South Side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 NM- PKZ817-North Side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 NM- PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 NM- PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 NM- PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 NM- PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 NM- PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 NM- The main ice edge extends from south of Pilot Point to 58 26'N 162 2'W to 57 36'N 164 1'W to 58 42'N 169 555'W to 60 27'N 178 12'W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is mainly open water. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from south of Pilot Point to 10 nm southeast of Cape Newenham to 85 nm southwest of Cape Newenham to 90 nm north of Saint Paul Island to 265 nm southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate to high. A strong low with S winds will bring another big sea ice retreat and will decrease the pack ice concentration through Sunday. Expect predominant winds from the S and W through Wednesday. Overall expect the ice edge to retreat 30 to 60 nm through Wednesday. -COOK INLET- PKZ730-West of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay- PKZ738-Shelikof Strait- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North Kalgin Island- PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to High The main ice edge in Cook Inlet extends from 60 28'N 152 2'W to 60 3'N 151 53'W to 60 37'N 151 19'W. From land-based points, the main ice edge in Cook Inlet extends from 10 nm west of Kalgin Island to Kalgin Island to 5 nm northwest of Kenai. SYNOPSIS...High pressure builds in through the forecast period. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. Air temperatures remain in the 20s and 30s through Wednesday, allowing sea ice to continue to thin within Cook Inlet. The ice edge is expected to retreat up to 10 nm as sea ice melts through the forecast period. Cook Inlet sea ice changes significantly with tides. && Tinker