FZHW50 PHFO 271908 SRFHFO SURF ZONE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 900 AM HST MON SEP 27 2010 HIZ005>011-280100- OAHU- 900 AM HST MON SEP 27 2010 SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 10 TO 14 FEET TODAY...THEN RISE TO 14 TO 18 FEET TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY...THEN RISE TO 6 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS TODAY...THEN RISE TO 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY...THEN RISE TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON TUESDAY. OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY OCT 3: THE NEW NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND SWING AROUND TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. A NEW WEST NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND GRADUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. EAST FACING SHORES WITH EXPOSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SEE LOCALLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL SURF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NEW SOUTH SWELL WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SWELL WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. A SECOND SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE ONE THIRD LARGEST WAVES...IN THE ZONE OF MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR ANY SURF ZONE. && COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI 300 PM HST FRI SEP 24 2010 THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR 4 DAYS. FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND 1 PM 5 NNW 13 8 10 DOWN 8-12 ENE SAME 09/24 3 SW 16 4 6 SAME SAT 4 NNW 11 6 8 DOWN MED 11-16 ENE UP 09/25 4 ENE 6 1 2 UP LOW 2 SW 15 2 4 DOWN LOW SUN 8 NNW 15 14 18 UP HIGH 7-10 E DOWN 09/26 3 ENE 6 1 2 DOWN LOW 2 SSW 14 2 4 SAME LOW MON 7 NNW 13 12 14 DOWN MED 4-6 VRB DOWN 09/27 3 NNW 17 4 6 UP LOW 2 SW 13 2 4 SAME LOW TUE 9 NNW 14 16 22 SAME MED 7-10 E UP 09/28 3 SSW 16 4 6 UP LOW WED 4 WNW 20 8 12 UP LOW 7-10 E DOWN 09/29 7 NNW 13 12 14 DOWN LOW 3 SSW 14 4 6 DOWN LOW LEGEND: SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW) WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: SUMMARY... STEADY SURF FROM AROUND THE COMPASS AS COMMON FOR EARLY FALL. DETAILED... MID FRIDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS MODERATE BREAKERS FROM 325-345 DEGREES. IT WAS GENERATED BY GALES NEAR THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LAST SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS EPISODE IS PREDICTED TO DROP TO SMALL LEVELS ON SATURDAY FROM 330-350 DEGREES. THE NORTH PACIFIC JET STREAM IS AMPLIFYING TROUGHS OFF AND ON EVERY FEW DAYS ALONG THE LONGITUDE OF HAWAII...CYCLING THE TRADES FROM LIGHT TO MARGINALLY MODERATE AND MAKING FOR BACK TO BACK NNW EPISODES. THE FIRST SYSTEM DEEPENED RAPIDLY NEAR 45N...170W ON THURSDAY...WITH THE CENTER TRACKING EAST WHILE A FRONT PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST. STORM-FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE CENTER AIMED AT TARGETS EAST OF HAWAII. A BROAD AREA OF GALES WERE POINTED AT HAWAII AND MOVED TO WITHIN 1200 NM BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE JASON SATELLITE ESTIMATED SEAS NEAR 20 FEET AT THE HEAD OF THE FETCH UPSTREAM OF HAWAII TO THE NNW. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE HAWAII SWELL WINDOW LATE FRIDAY. LOW...LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 325-340 DEGREES...WITH HEIGHTS STAYING SMALL BEFORE SUNDOWN. SURF SHOULD PICK UP RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT TO HIGH LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING OUT OF 330-360 DEGREES...WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT DUE TO ANGULAR SPREADING FROM SWELL TRAINS IN THE HIGH SWATH MISSING HAWAII TO THE EAST. SURF SHOULD PEAK LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND DROP TO MODERATE TO MARGINALLY HIGH LEVELS ON MONDAY. A NEW EPISODE IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING THE DATELINE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM DEEPENING...BROADENING...AND TRACKING ESE ON SATURDAY AS THE JET STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG ABOUT 165W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OF SIMILAR STRENGTH TO ITS PREDECESSOR...THOUGH ABOUT 5 DEGREES FURTHER WEST...PUTTING HAWAII CLOSER TO THE MAXIMUM SWATH OF SWELL. ALSO...THE GALES ARE MODELLED TO GET CLOSER TO HAWAII BY ABOUT 300 NM BY MID SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD MEAN A BIGGER EPISODE LOCALLY...BUILDING MONDAY NEAR SUNDOWN. THE EPISODE SHOULD PEAK NEAR DAWN TUESDAY FROM 330-360 DEGREES...AND SLOWLY DROP TO MARGINALLY HIGH LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC...TYPHOON MALAKAS HAS CHANGED TRACK TOWARD THE NNE AS IT PASSES SE OF TOKYO FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN THE SYSTEM STILL HAD A CLEAR EYE IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES. MODELS SHOW IT HUGGING THE PERIMETER OF THE BASIN AS IT TRAVELS TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...THEN CHANGES COURSE TO THE EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIANS. LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE TYPHOON PHASE IS COULD FILL IN TUESDAY NIGHT LOCALLY OUT OF 280-300 DEGREES. THIS IS A DIRECTIONAL BAND FOR OAHU THAT RECEIVES SIGNIFICANT SHADOWING BY NIIHAU AND KAUAI. STORM- TO HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE MODELLED TO CONTINUE AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL ON SATURDAY...WITH A DURATION- AND FETCH LENGTH-LIMITED SITUATION DUE TO THE FAST TRACK. SURF SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD ON WEDNESDAY FROM THIS SOURCE TO MODERATE LEVELS OUT OF 300-315 DEGREES. MORE DISCUSSION IS GIVEN IN THE LONG RANGE. MID FRIDAY ON EASTERN SHORES HAS MINIMAL SURF FROM WINDSWELL...THOUGH NORTHERLY EXPOSURES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE REFRACTION NNW SWELL. A SHORT-LIVED INCREASE IN LOCAL TRADES IS MODELLED FOR SATURDAY...FALLING OFF TO GENTLE LEVELS BY SUNDAY...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MONDAY. WINDSWELL IS EXPECTED TO STAY AT A MINIMUM. MID FRIDAY ON SOUTHERN SHORES HAS MODERATE BREAKERS FROM 200-220 DEGREES AT 15-17 SECOND INTERVALS. IT WAS GENERATED BY STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE TASMAN SEA. HEIGHTS SHOULD FAVOR THE SMALL TO MODERATE BRACKET ON SATURDAY FROM THE SAME DIRECTION. THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE JET STREAM HAS HAD A LONG-LIVED TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE LONGITUDE OF NEW ZEALAND...WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURES IN THE TASMAN SEA AND SE OF NEW ZEALAND. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE SURF LOCALLY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER. SWELL ENERGY WAS GENERATED SE OF NEW ZEALAND LAST WEEKEND...AND SHOULD ADD SURF LOCALLY FROM 185-200 DEGREES...ALONG WITH THE 200-220 DEGREE SWATH...STARTING SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENED SE OF NEW ZEALAND THIS PAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND SHOULD LEAD TO THE DOMINANT WAVE DIRECTION FOR THE LOCAL SURF FROM 185-200 DEGREES BUILDING TUESDAY. HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD WITHIN THE MODERATE TO MARGINALLY HIGH BRACKET. INTO THE LONG RANGE...MODERATE TO MARGINALLY HIGH SURF SPANNING 185-220 DEGREES...BUT HIGHEST FROM 190-195 DEGREES...SHOULD HOLD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN RECEIVE A REINFORCEMENT BY NEXT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE REINFORCEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM ANOTHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE SE OF NEW ZEALAND ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEPTEMBER 23-24. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST EPISODE OF THE SERIES...WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED STARTING THE WORK WEEK OF OCTOBER 4. IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...THE NNW TO N EPISODE SHOULD DROP TO MODERATE LEVELS NEXT THURSDAY...AS WNW TO NW SURF FROM THE GENDER BENDER BUILDS TO MODERATE TO MARGINALLY HIGH LEVELS. THE REMNANT TYPHOON LOW PRESSURE IS MODELLED TO REGAIN STRENGTH IN AN AMPLIFYING JET TROUGH NORTH OF HAWAII AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY...DROPPING THE LOCAL TRADES FOR THURSDAY...AND BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR HIGH NNW SURF AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO LOW CONFIDENCE. THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON MONDAY...SEPTEMBER 27. THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275. ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP $$ NWS BURKE NCDDC CALDWELL