FZUS81 KCLE 061008 ICEFBO GREAT LAKES BREAK-UP OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 506 AM EST MON MAR 6 2017 ...VERY LITTLE ICE DEVELOPED DURING THE WINTER OF 2016-2017 ON THE GREAT LAKES... THE WINTER OF 2016-2017 WAS ANOTHER MILD WINTER FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NOVEMBER STARTED OUT WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH WHILE DECEMBER DROPPED BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. JANUARY WARMED UP AGAIN WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTREME WEST. FEBRUARY SAW SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ON RECORD...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. THE MONTH ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND AROUND 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTH. THE WINTER MONTHS EXPERIENCED A BRIEF LA NINA RESULTING IN A WARMER THAN NORMAL LATTER HALF OF THE WINTER SEASON. THE PRECIPITATION RANGED FROM NEAR NORMAL IN THE WEST TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. DECEMBER RECOVERED WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND JANUARY WAS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION DURING THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY SAW SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH AND EAST BUT BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE LAKES. THE STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FAVORED THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE WINTER. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM HELPED TO KEEP THE STORMS ON THE WESTERN END OF THE LAKES ALLOWING A SURGE OF WARM AIR TO STREAM WELL NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEMS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. ONCE THIS TOOK PLACE...WRAP AROUND COLD AIR PLUNGED ACROSS THE REGION SETTING UP LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO THE AREA. AS FAR AS SHIPPING IS CONCERNED...THE FORTUNATE THING WAS THAT THE COLD AIR OUTBREAKS TENDED TO BE VERY BRIEF LIMITING THE EXPOSURE TO THE COLD OVER THE LAKES TO CAUSE ICE DEVELOPMENT. THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE WINTER WAS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH NO LONG STRETCHES OF COLD AIR THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS. WATER TEMPERATURES RAN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE LAKES REGION DUE TO THE WARMER AIR TEMPERATURES. ICE COVER WAS ABNORMALLY LOW ON THE GREAT LAKES THIS WINTER SEASON. ONLY A FEW OF THE FAVORED LOCATIONS DEVELOPED ICE OVER THE WINTER MONTHS. THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE SAW SOME ICE DEVELOPMENT BUT NEVER ACHIEVED GREAT THICKNESSES. THE ICE FIELD WAS CONSTANTLY BATTERED BY WAVES FROM THE STORM SYSTEMS AND THIS AIDED IN THE FAIRLY QUICK DECAY OF THE ICE FIELD IN FEBRUARY. THE REST OF LAKE ERIE DID NOT SEE ICE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING MINIMAL SHORE ICE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. ICE FILLED GREEN BAY...BAYS DE NOC...THE NORTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN, AND IN THE ST. MARYS RIVER. THE REST OF THE GREAT LAKES REMAINED ICE FREE THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS. IT APPEARED THERE WAS A VERY MINIMAL IMPACT TO VESSELS THIS WINTER. THE SEASONAL FREEZING DEGREE DAYS AS OF MARCH 5TH WERE FAIRLY CLOSE TO BEING NORMAL IN THE NORTHWEST BUT WERE WELL BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE ON THE GREAT LAKES. THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE COMPARISON OF EACH STATION TO NORMAL... FREEZING DEGREE DAY ACCUMULATIONS AT SELECTED STATIONS COMPARED TO NORMAL CALCULATED ON SAT MAR 4: LOCATION DATE NORMAL CURRENT ---------------------------------------- DULUTH, MN MAR 4 1851 1309 MARQUETTE, MI MAR 4 1582 1197 SAU_S_MAR, MI MAR 4 1279 726 GREENBAY, WI MAR 4 1184 606 MILWAUKEE, WI MAR 4 651 229 CHICAGO, IL MAR 4 502 129 MUSKEGON, MI MAR 4 412 40 ALPENA, MI MAR 4 977 544 DETROIT, MI MAR 4 383 15 TOLEDO, OH MAR 4 385 15 CLEVELAND, OH MAR 4 185 14 BUFFALO, NY MAR 4 525 27 WHEN ICE EXISTS EXTENSIVELY IN THE RIVERS...FLUSHING OF THE ICE IN THE RIVERS NORMALLY BEGINS IN THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH. OCCASIONAL COLD SPELLS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO BUT THE COLD AIR SHOULD HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON ANY ICE DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH SUN ANGLE...THE REMAINING ICE WILL LIKELY QUICKLY DEPART THE LAKES. THE LIMITED ICE REMAINING SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE SHIPPING LANES THROUGH THE REST OF THE ICE SEASON. THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF MARCH INTO EARLY APRIL CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 30 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE 90 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE GREAT LAKES. THE 90 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ICE CONDITIONS CAN BE SIGNIFICANTLY ALTERED BY STRONG WINDS AND SUNSHINE. PERSISTENT WINDS INTO A WATERWAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN JAMMING FROM ICE FLOES THAT STILL EXIST. ON THE OTHER HAND...WINDS OUT OF A WATER WAY WILL FLUSH THE REMAINING ICE INTO THE OPEN WATER WHERE MELTING MAY OCCUR AT A FASTER RATE. LARGE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE HIGH SUN ANGLE CAN HELP BREAK UP THE ICE FLOES MORE QUICKLY THAN WARMER TEMPERATURES. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ICE OUTLOOKS ISSUED ON MONDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND FRIDAY FROM THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE ICE BECOMES INSIGNIFICANT TO SHIPPING. THE NEXT FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE 2017-2018 WINTER SEASON WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER AND WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS AFTER UNTIL THE ICE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE GREAT LAKES. $$ LOMBARDY