NOUS73 KIND 171636
ADMIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1135 AM EST WED NOV 17 2010
...THIS IS ONLY INTENDED FOR LMK AS PART OF BACKUP PRACTICE...
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECM ARE CLOSE WITH THE PRIMARY FIELDS. EARLY IN THE 
PERIOD THIS PROVIDES CONFIDENCE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS /HPC/ FORECAST 
SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD.
THE NOT SO GOOD NEWS IS THE GFS AND ECM HAVE A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING 
PAST INDIANA AND THEN KENTUCKY FROM LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS 
GREATLY REDUCES CONFIDENCE SINCE EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN 
PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. 
FOR MOST PART WONT TRY TO OUTGUESS HPC CONSIDERING HIGH UNCERTAINTY. 
THIS MEANS POPS FOR MOST OF PERIOD...BUT SEE BELOW. TEMPERATURES MAY 
NEED QUITE A BIT OF UPDATING LATER AS SKY COVER AND PCPN PATTERNS 
CAN BE RESOLVED BETTER...BUT ALSO SEE NEXT PARAGRAPH.
WILL BE DRIER THAN HPC WEDNESDAY SINCE ECM CONCURS WITH GFS ABOUT 
DRY HIGH MOVING IN. THIS MEANS JUST A DRY FORECAST FOR INDIANA WITH 
A SLGT CHC/OR CHANCE IN KENTUCKY SINCE THEY ARE GOING TO BE CLOSER 
TO FRONT. CHANGED HPC TO GO WARMER THAN THEY ARE WEDNESDAY MORNING 
TO MAINTAIN A LITTLE CONTINUITY WITH EARLIER FORECAST. 
&&
LONG TERM....KWIATKOWSKI