NWUS54 KAMA 290115 VICE HONOLULU HI 300 PM HST TUE JUL 28 2009 HIZ005>011-290500- OAHU- 300 PM HST TUE JUL 28 2009 SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOWER TO 2 TO 4 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOWER TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOWER TO 2 TO 4 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY AUG 3: THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THURSDAY. A NEW SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY LOWERING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SMALL NORTHWEST PULSES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR ANY SURF ZONE. && COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI 300 PM HST MON JUL 27 2009 THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR 4 DAYS. FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND 1 PM 2 NNW 11 2 4 UP 17-21 E SAME 07/27 5 E 6 2 2 SAME 3 SSW 14 6 8 DOWN TUE 3 NNW 11 4 6 SAME LOW 17-21 E SAME 07/28 6 E 7 2 4 UP LOW 3 SSW 13 4 6 DOWN LOW WED 3 NNW 9 4 6 DOWN LOW 13-19 E DOWN 07/29 6 E 7 2 4 SAME LOW 2 SSW 12 2 4 SAME LOW THU 2 NNW 9 2 4 UP LOW 13-19 E SAME 07/30 6 E 7 2 4 SAME LOW 2 SSW 12 2 4 SAME LOW FRI 2 NNW 10 2 4 SAME LOW 13-19 E SAME 07/31 6 E 7 2 4 SAME LOW 3 SSW 18 6 8 UP LOW SAT 2 NNW 9 2 4 DOWN LOW 17-21 E UP 08/01 7 E 7 2 4 SAME LOW 4 SSW 15 6 8 SAME MED LEGEND: SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW) WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: SUMMARY... SOUTHERN SHORES TRENDING DOWN MID WEEK AND BACK UP AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. DETAILED... MID MONDAY ON SOUTHERN SHORES HAS MODERATE TO MARGINALLY HIGH SURF FROM 185-200 DEGREES. IT WAS GENERATED BY A WIDE FETCH OF GALES TO SEVERE GALES SE TO E OF NEW ZEALAND ABOUT 10 DAYS AGO. THIS EPISODE IS TRENDING DOWN AT BUOY 51003 AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP LOCALLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A PAUSE IN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY EAST OF NEW ZEALAND OCCURRED FROM JULY 20-22...AND IN TURN...LOCAL SURF SHOULD REFLECT A MINIMUM THIS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW ODDS FOR SMALL SURF FROM SMALL POCKETS OF GALES IN THE TASMAN SEA...208-220 DEGREES...AND SOUTH OF FRENCH POLYNESIA...170-190 DEGREES MID WEEK THIS WEEK. WINTER MODE RETURNED BY THURSDAY...JULY 23 AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SET UP TO THE SE OF NEW ZEALAND. IT TRACKED STEADILY EASTWARD. A FETCH OF SEVERE GALE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE 185-200 DEGREE BAND FORMED BY MID THURSDAY AND HELD INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE HEAD OF THE FETCH REACHED TO ABOUT 3800 NM AWAY AND THE JASON SATELLITE ESTIMATED SEAS OVER 30 FEET IN THE PRIMARY SWATH. LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAINS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THIS WEEK...WITH THE SURF BUILDING TO MODERATE TO MARGINALLY HIGH LEVELS ON FRIDAY. THE EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK ON SATURDAY FROM 180-200 DEGREES. MID MONDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS TINY BREAKERS FROM A SLOWLY RISING...SHORT-PERIOD EPISODE OUT OF 315-330 DEGREES. BUOY 51001 SHOWS A RISE IN 9-12 SECOND ENERGY FROM THIS DIRECTION THIS MORNING. THIS EPISODE SHOULD BUILD TO SMALL LEVELS RELATIVE TO NORTH SHORE STANDARDS LATE MONDAY...PEAK ON TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY DROP ON WEDNESDAY. IT WAS GENERATED BY FRESH TO NEAR GALE WINDS LAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1100 NM AWAY NEAR THE DATELINE. WEAK LOW PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FORM IN THE LONGITUDES FROM NEAR THE DATELINE TO 165W BETWEEN ABOUT 35 AND 50N. SHORT-LIVED FETCHES OF FRESH TO NEAR GALES NEAR THE DATELINE THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER NEAR THE ALEUTIANS YESTERDAY...JULY 26...COULD GIVE A TINY TO SMALL EPISODE FOR BUILDING THURSDAY...PEAKING FRIDAY...AND DROPPING SATURDAY FROM 315-350 DEGREES. MID MONDAY ON EASTERN SHORES HAS LOW SURF. LARGE SCALE TRADES UPSTREAM AND OVER HAWAII HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS. WITH THE INTENSE HEATING OF THE LAND DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS IN SUMMER...STRONG VARIATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS OCCUR FROM PLACE TO PLACE AND TIME OF DAY. OVERALL...A LARGE-SCALE...MODERATE TO LOW-END FRESH TRADES PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT MINIMUM CENTERED ON THURSDAY. SURF SHOULD STAY MODERATE OR LESS FROM 60-90 DEGREES. INTO THE LONG RANGE...SIMILAR WINDS AND WIND WAVES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. FROM THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...CHANCES CONTINUE FOR SHORT-LIVED...MOSTLY TINY BUMPS FROM NW TO N. IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EAST OF NEW ZEALAND...ANOTHER STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE FORMED ON JULY 26. IT IS SLOWLY TRACKING ESE AND WEAKENING. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR BACK-TO-BACK EPISODES...WITH A NEW EPISODE FILLING IN THIS COMING SUNDAY AS THE FIRST EPISODE SLOWLY WANES. MODERATE TO MARGINALLY HIGH SURF COULD LAST INTO NEXT TUESDAY FROM 180-200 DEGREES. MODELS SUGGEST MOSTLY AVERAGE SURF HEIGHTS...SMALL TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE...MID NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND FROM STRAIGHT SOUTH AND THE TASMAN SEA...208-220 DEGREES. LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO MAJOR REVISIONS. THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON WEDNESDAY...JULY 29. THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275. ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP $$ NWS BURKE NCDDC CALDWELL